Sunday, 30 June 2013

Great Britain: post-race analysis



Well, that was a dramatic race. Even better, it was profitable. When Hamilton’s tyre exploded it looked set to be yet another Vettel victory, but then the German’s car lost drive, gifting Rosberg the lead. He did well to retain it at the end against a strong attack from Webber. It’s also nice to benefit from some good luck when it comes to bets.

The start saw Vettel instantly pass Rosberg into second (maybe because the odd-numbered side of the track is a significant advantage). Webber meanwhile had a terrible start, even by his standards, and Massa gained a huge number of places.

To make matters worse, Grosjean nudged Webber off the track and damaged his front wing (replaced at the first round of pit stops).

A big question was whether or not Mercedes would be able to maintain decent race pace, as this has proved their weakness so far this season. Hamilton seemed to have no real issues keeping Vettel behind him, until the Briton’s tyre burst apart. It did so at the worst possible place on the circuit, and although Hamilton nursed his car back to the pit to get some fresh rubber he lost a huge amount of time.

Shortly thereafter Massa suffered an almost identical incident, and then Vergne likewise (the damage from the shredded rubber flaying the Toro Rosso’s floor eventually meant his car had to be retired). Late on Perez suffered similarly.

It’s hard to say whether the problem is something specific to Silverstone (sharp kerbs) or whether the new Pirelli tyre compounds are simply not good enough.

Vettel, from nowhere, lost drive and had to cruise to a stop, giving Rosberg the lead. Rosberg had enough time to pit and retain top spot as the safety car emerged, a tactic also employed by Alonso (Webber also had fresh tyres but I forget if he pitted prior to or just after the safety car). Raikkonen stayed out, queried this on the radio but by then it was too late.

On fresh tyres Webber and Alonso carved their way through the field and Raikkonen ended up down in fifth, after being passed by Hamilton. Rosberg was hanging on for dear life at the end, but hang on he did and victory was his. It was a very dramatic race, an exciting finish and great recovery drives from Webber and Hamilton.

Massa also recovered well from his tyre blowing out to get sixth, and Sutil and Di Resta getting seventh and ninth was a great result for Force India. Ricciardo’s eighth will help his career prospects and Hulkenberg did very well to get the final point in tenth.

Vettel’s non-finish coupled with Alonso being third and Raikkonen fifth means they take a fairly sizeable chunk out of his lead, but it’s still quite large, and the Red Bull is still better than the other cars (barring Mercedes) at qualifying.

Vettel 132
Alonso 111
Raikkonen 98

Only Alonso is within even a win (25 points) of taking the lead from Vettel.

Interestingly, Mercedes have now risen to second in the Constructors’:

Red Bull 219
Mercedes 171
Ferrari 168
Lotus 124

Over the last few races Ferrari and Lotus seem to have slightly dropped off the pace (they were aided by the safety cars bunching up the field today), whereas Red Bull have stayed fast and Mercedes appear to be getting on top of their tyre issues (although today temperatures were fairly low [relative to other circuits] and the compounds were the hardest combination).

After the race Gary Anderson went to turn 4 on the circuit and stated that the kerbs were unsafe because the concrete was in such a position as to make it prone to cutting the tyres open. If that’s true, it should mean the problem could be easy to solve and prevent it occurring much elsewhere.

It’s also worth noting that the next race, in Germany, takes place next weekend.

Morris Dancer



Saturday, 29 June 2013

Great Britain: pre-race



Ha, I got just about everything wrong. I must admit I was pretty hopeful about the margin being 0.15s or less, and then Hamilton put in a blinding lap to absolutely slaughter his opposition.

Q1 was unremarkable, with the usual suspects plus Gutierrez and Bottas failing to escape.

Q2 had a perhaps important result, with Vergne departing at this stage but Ricciardo progressing to Q3. Both McLarens and Hulkenberg also got dropped here, as did Massa.

Q3 was all lined up for an epic four way battle between the drivers of Mercedes and Red Bull. It was looking tight and tasty, and then Hamilton put in an astoundingly good lap and slaughtered his rivals by almost half a second. It’s due to be hotter tomorrow, but with harder compounds I am wondering if the Silver Arrows could yet have a very good race. Rosberg, Vettel and Webber came next, with Di Resta in a very nice fifth and Ricciardo in a strong sixth. Sutil and Grosjean came next, with Raikkonen a lacklustre ninth and Alonso a depressing tenth.

Lotus and Ferrari seem to have just failed to develop effectively, and it’s hard (right now) to see Vettel facing a serious challenge for another title.

Alonso said after qualifying that the harder compounds at every race help only two teams (Mercedes and Red Bull, obviously), and that’s certainly true.

I’m really not sure whether the Ferrari and Lotus are strong enough to move all that far forward. Force India have typically been better in the race than qualifying but today they qualified very strongly and there’s no reason to expect them to do poorly in the race.

Vettel looked a bit miffed to be third. It’d be interesting to know just how much better the Mercedes now is, given their test and the three weeks between Canada and Britain, on its tyres.

Along with Mr. Putney’s suggestion in the previous thread, I’ve decided to back Mercedes for the win. However, to enable hedging I’ve gone for backing Hamilton and Rosberg as drivers at 4.6 and 10 respectively, hedged at 2 each (so that if one gets hedged the result for any other driver is evens, and if both do the result for any other driver is plus one stake).

As before with such split-stake bets (Canada 2011 is a nice precedent) this counts as a single tip.

There's a limited amount available to lay Alonso to be top 6 at 1.44. It can't count as a tip due to lack of liquidity, but I think it's worth betting on.

Morris Dancer

Britain: pre-qualifying


The big news ahead of qualifying was that Vettel’s best friend forever, Mark Webber, has decided to call it a day. It sounds like this decision was actually made a long time ago (pre-Malaysia when Vettel decided obeying direct orders was optional and Horner showed himself to be a weak team leader).

This will open up a vacancy at a team which has won the last six titles (three each for the Drivers’ and Constructors’). However, it’s also a team that has a clear number one, even if it pretends otherwise, which might make it significantly less attractive than would otherwise be the case. In addition, the rules change massively in 2014. I still expect Red Bull to be up there, maybe even to retain dominance, but the rule change is an opportunity for other teams to gain ground and surpass Red Bull.

Kimi Raikkonen is the name lots of people are talking about… but I’m not so sure. From Vettel’s perspective (and I expect him to have some input if not an outright veto as Alonso would have for a Massa replacement) having an incredibly fast driver who doesn’t really care about anything except winning is not the number two driver team mate he’s been used to. From Raikkonen’s perspective jumping ship from a team where he’s de facto number one to another where the leaving driver suffered the Multi-21 nonsense and the incumbent driver ignored direct orders and suffered no punishment at all is not that tempting.

Raikkonen’s already winning races and fighting for the title. If he moved to Red Bull he couldn’t be sure that he’d be given equal footing (it seems unlikely, frankly) with Vettel, and I think the German’s ruthless enough to try and ensure he doesn’t face a serious challenge.

So, who else is there?

Vergne and Ricciardo have also been mentioned, which is natural as they’re both part of the effective (supposed) feeder team Toro Rosso. However, whilst they’re both driving fairly well I’m not sure either’s set the world on fire just yet.

Personally, I’d go for Hulkenberg, Bianchi or possibly Di Resta (although the Scot does like blaming his team, and even if that’s sometimes legitimate Red Bull will be keen to avoid airing its dirty laundry in public anymore). Both Hulkenberg and Bianchi are very fast, impressive drivers, and both would be keen enough to leave their current teams for Red Bull to agree to (for a couple of years at least) a number two driver status. With Vettel possibly replacing Alonso at Ferrari then, and Button likely to have left McLaren around the same time that would give them time to acclimatise to a top team, get more experience and be in the perfect position to either assume the top job at Red Bull or move to McLaren (or Ferrari if Alonso leaves and Vettel stays put).

Annoyingly, after I wrote the above (which I left in because I often write these articles in chunks and it’s an interesting topic) Horner said there was a three man shortlist of Raikkonen, Vergne and Ricciardo, with the Finn top of the list: http://www.espn.co.uk/redbull/motorsport/story/112949.html

And after that Eddie Jordan, on Inside F1 on Friday, suggested it could be Hulkenberg.

Medium and hard tyres are to be used at Silverstone, incidentally.

Gary Anderson reckoned, during P1, that a one stop would be possible for the likes of Lotus, and that most others would make just two.

P1 was almost entirely washed out, with competitive laps only coming near the end of the session. Given qualifying and the race are expected to be entirely dry this session should be of no value whatsoever, but for the sake of completeness here’s the top 10: Ricciardo, Hulkenberg, Maldonado, Hamilton, Gutierrez, Bottas, Vergne, Van Der Garde, Chilton, Bianchi.

P2 was drier, with cars going out right away on the intermediates. Hulkenberg complained that with DRS he couldn’t pass a Marussia, which isn’t great. Rosberg was fastest, followed by Webber, Vettel, Di Resta, Hamilton, Ricciardo, Vergne, Sutil, Grosjean and Alonso.

Hamilton was complaining about feeling very uncomfortable in the Mercedes, but some work was done during P3 and after that he appeared very competitive.

Rosberg was fastest in P3, narrowly ahead of Hamilton. Vettel was third, then came Webber, Grosjean, Ricciardo, Alonso, Raikkonen, Sutil, Di Resta.

It looks like being a Silver Arrows versus Red Bull fight for pole, with the Mercedes more likely to get it. Hard to call between Hamilton and Rosberg, although personally I think the German’s got the edge, just.

Qualifying will be dry, according to the forecasts, which is handy.

The odds for the bets I was most interested in (Rosberg pole and Webber top 3) were pretty poor, so I went for something a bit unusual. On Ladbrokes, I backed the qualifying winning margin to be 0.001-0.15s at 2.2. This has been the case every time from 2010-2012, and I expect the qualifying battle to be very close this year. (No hedge, of course).

Let’s hope qualifying’s exciting and profitable.

Morris Dancer

Tuesday, 25 June 2013

Britain: early discussion



Well, after rumours that Pirelli might sue and Mercedes might leave the Tribunal of Doom ended up giving them a slap on the wrist. Mercedes do miss the Young Driver Test, but given they themselves suggested that as a penalty it’s hardly being burnt at the stake.

Some say Red Bull may be considering an overt rebellion by openly testing in-season and defying the ban on so doing: http://www.espn.co.uk/fia/motorsport/story/112205.html

However, there’s a world of difference from an ‘in good faith’/accidental breaking of the rules and wilfully flouting them. The FIA would come down on Red Bull like a ton of bricks and I think this is very unlikely to happen.

Pirelli are taking the hard and medium compounds to Silverstone, which has drawn some criticism from Lotus, who legitimately argue that there’s no point making tyres softer if you then take harder compounds to each race. Tyres for Silverstone and a race or two later can be found here: http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2013/6/14675.html

Speaking of Lotus, they’re taking a hefty upgrade to Britain and are hopefully of once again fighting at the sharp end. Although Raikkonen’s poor showing at Monaco can be attributed to the difficulty of overtaking and well-known qualifying issues, his poor performance in Canada may be more worrying for the team.

Given it’s 3 weeks between races I imagine just about every team will have an upgrade of one size or another. We’ll have to see how they, and the weather, work out.

Morris Dancer

Sunday, 23 June 2013

A look ahead to Wimbledon



So, Wimbledon’s just around the corner, and I thought I’d write a piece on it.

A brief explanation of my betting/viewing habits around tennis: I’m much more casually interested than F1 [ironic, as my tennis bets this year are rather healthier than my F1 bets]. Typically my bets are just straight win/lose on specific matches, based on the stats offered on Betfair.

Anyway, the men’s tournament is perfectly poised. Federer is the defending champion, but to retain the crown he’ll probably have to beat Nadal and Murray and Djokovic, even as his star is waning. Nadal has come back from prolonged injury to take a record 8th French Open title. Murray is the US Open champion and won the last tournament held at Wimbledon (2012 Olympic gold). Djokovic is world number one and reigning Australian Open champion. Perhaps even more importantly he has an easy draw whereby he can only meet Nadal, Federer or Murray in the final.

We have a quartet of excellent men, each of whom has a single Grand Slam title. Not only that, there’s a strong set of would-be winners (Tsonga, Monaco, Del Potro) who are capable of causing an upset.

The women’s game interests me less, as a spectator. Serena Williams seems immensely strong, but in a Schumacher sort of way - winning by so much it drains the tension and drama from the contest. Good for her to win so much, of course, but it's not thrilling to watch. However, there’s an intriguing spat, it would seem, between her and Maria Sharapova (who has not beaten Williams for about a decade).

They’re in separate halves of the draw, I believe, so we could have a grudge match final. Sadly, it’s hard to see anything but a Williams victory.

On the other hand, the British ladies do seem to be getting increasingly competitive, and it’ll be interesting to see whether Watson or Robson can get near the sharp end.

No tips for the first day of play, incidentally.

Morris Dancer

Sunday, 16 June 2013

A look back at the ropey season so far



Traditionally, I bugger up the first 3-4 races then get my act together. Bizarrely, I managed to get a flying start in Oz but since then my tips have been ropier than a bondage shop.

I think it’s very important to categorise betting results according to luck or judgement, because the former should even itself out over the course of a season whereas the latter can (and must) be corrected by the person making the bet.

So, I’m going to concisely run down the bets I’ve made this year (NB I am only looking at the tips I’ve offered, not small bets I sometimes make without tipping, typically when there’s a lack of liquidity). Most of the early races are very far off to the east and I didn’t offer qualifying tips because Q3 ended at about 4am.

Australia

Qualifying tip - NA

Race tip - Ferrari to stop score at 5.5.

Although an uncharacteristically early tip for the race, due to qualifying being delayed for bad weather, I actually got this spot on. It’s hard to speculate at the start of a season but my predictions were generally accurate and Ferrari did top score.

Malaysia

Qualifying tip - NA

Race tip - Massa for a podium 2.64

Massa went into reverse at the start and never recovered. Pretty clear-cut case of a misjudgement on my part.

China

Qualifying tip - NA

Race tip - Vettel to win at 7

This was an odd one, where Vettel qualified ninth after not setting a time in Q3 so he could start on the medium tyres. There was a clear strategic divergence between him and Alonso/Raikkonen, but I jumped the wrong way and misjudged how things would go.

Bahrain

Qualifying tip - Alonso for pole at 4.5

First qualifying tip of the season due to the timezones being more agreeable. Alonso was fastest in P3 but a third of a second off in qualifying. A misjudgement, given that qualifying has been sewn up by Red Bull and Mercedes. However, the hedge was matched [the stats at the end are for a bet-and-forget approach to gambling].

Race tip - Alonso to win at 2.62

The Ferrari’s been competitive in the races all year, and third for Alonso is a little higher than he’s used to on the grid. A first ever (of its type) malfunction of Alonso’s DRS meant he had to pit early, and then pit a second time after the problem recurred, after which he lacked DRS throughout. I believe he would have had the pace to challenge Vettel had it not occurred. The problem is that it’s impossible to know for certain. I’ve chalked this up to bad luck.

Spain

Qualifying tips - Vergne to reach Q3 at 3.8, Massa for pole 14.5

Ironically I felt very confident about the Vergne tip and regretted the Massa one. Neither came off but the Massa hedge was matched at least. Vergne was a tenth and a half off Q3, so a misjudgement, albeit not a huge one, whereas Massa was never in the running and I’m staggered the hedge got matched [if I were counting hedged bets as winners I’d attribute this to good luck].

Race tip - Raikkonen to win at 4.8

Had a bit of a bad start and, from vague memory, was never really close enough after that to challenge for victory. A misjudgement on my part.

Monaco

Qualifying tip - Rosberg for pole at 1.95

He’d looked good all weekend and got pole. Pretty simple, for once.

Race tip - Raikkonen for a podium at 2.86

In retrospect this may be the most stupid bet of the year. Whilst Raikkonen could’ve moved up the field due to superior tyre management the safety cars were eminently predictable, and even though the red flag was perhaps unfortunate Monaco is probably the circuit where such a thing is likeliest. A clear misjudgement.


Canada

Qualifying tip - Hamilton for pole 3.2

He got within a tenth, and was seven-tenths up into the last corner when he made a mistake. However, weather conditions in Q3 were fairly stable. Although very close, this was a misjudgement on my part.

Race tip - Webber for a podium at 2.64

Webber was ahead of Alonso (just) and behind Hamilton when his nose got taken off entirely needlessly by Van Der Garde. Shortly thereafter he lost the place to Alonso and couldn’t pass Hamilton when Alonso could. I think that the loss of the nose is what cost him, so I’m considering this to be bad luck.


Results so far:
Qualifying -
1 winner, 4 losers
Of losers - 4 misjudgement, 0 bad luck
Of winners - 1 judgement, 0 good luck

Race -
1 winner, 6 loser s
Of losers - 3 misjudgement, 3 bad luck
Of winners - 1 judgement, 0 good luck

That’s interesting. In qualifying I’m red for bet-and-forget but green for hedged, and equally red for both measures in racing. 2 winners from 12 bets is bloody appalling. Even stripping out the ones I’ve considered unlucky it’d be just 2 from 9.

I’m hoping that paying closer attention to the track, the difference between qualifying and race pace and the temperature (because of its impact on tyre wear) will help lead to an improvement in the latter half of the season. This is, I think, my worst start to a season so far, but I have turned around late-season slumps before so it’s not impossible to recover.

Some hopefully useful bits and pieces I think I’ve noticed so far:
The Red Bulls (and, to a lesser extent, Mercedes) like colder temperatures.
Ferrari, Lotus and Force India prefer hotter weather.

The Mercedes is very good on slower bits of track (last section of Spain, Monaco) which should set them fair for Singapore.

As a rule, Mercedes goes backwards in a race, Ferrari, Lotus and Force India go forwards from their grid slots.

I think I’ve been backing winners a week late at several races.

In summary, I think I’ve been paying too little attention to underlying trends for each car and too much to the race-to-race results.

If anyone has other points to add, whether agreement or disagreement with the points I’ve made or something extra about either betting or F1 this season, please feel free to do so in the comments.

Morris Dancer



Sunday, 9 June 2013

Canada: post-race analysis



Well, the race was unprofitable, and it was the worst (hedged) weekend so far, with two negative results. Assuming my computer is still working, I’ll put up a post trying to work out why I’ve been a bit rubbish this season during the 3 week gap to Silverstone.

Bottas was the only one to have a bad start at the sharp end, and was rapidly passed by Webber and Alonso.

Vettel had another dreary victory, going off first and retaining that throughout. Technically impressive but tedious as a spectacle.

For a while Rosberg kept Webber and Alonso behind him, which enabled Hamilton, then second, to build up a 10s lead. When the pair passed Rosberg Webber suffered unnecessary front wing damage when Van Der Garde (being lapped) stupidly turned in and knocked off an end plate. Shortly thereafter Webber was passed by Alonso, although the Aussie still appeared to have good pace.

Red Bull opted, interestingly, not to change the nose at the pit stops. Alonso (who had been approximately equal to Webber on pace previously) was able to close the gap to Hamilton and pass him, whereas Webber languished about 10s down the road (but 40s ahead of Rosberg).

Bottas, sadly, was on a one way ticket down the grid and finished in a lowly fourteenth.

Vergne didn’t feature much on TV but drove well to get sixth, and Di Resta had an amazing 57 lap opening stint on a one stop strategy which saw him rise from seventeenth to seventh.

Sutil should’ve been eighth, but he ‘accidentally’ held Hamilton up for too long when blue flags were being waved, which allowed Alonso get very close to the Briton. Sutil was thus penalised and finished tenth.

Massa started sixteenth and had a good race to finish eighth, passing Raikkonen very near the end.

Van Der Garde also managed to hit Hulkenberg, terminally damaging the Sauber’s suspension, before he himself had to retire when his front wing became lodged underneath his Caterham.

Given Vergne got sixth Ricciardo will be disappointed with fifteenth.

There was quite a lot of exciting racing, but it was very boring at the sharp end. Vettel was never remotely challenged.

Another bad weekend for betting, I’m afraid. Van Der Garde’s striking of Webber’s front wing *may* have cost the Aussie a podium, but it’s impossible to say for certain.

Next up is Silverstone, where Pirelli may well be supplying the modified tyre. The tyre to replace the current set, that is, which Red Bull (who got pole and the win today) have been complaining about.

My computer’s been rather disobedient lately. If it’s still working I’ll try and get a post up looking at why I’ve eschewed my traditional mid-season slump for an early-season slump.

Morris Dancer

Canada: pre-race



The qualifying session was thoroughly entertaining and rather soggy. Hamilton got as close as possible to pole without actually achieving it, but there’s always the race tomorrow.

The whole first session of Q1 was soggy, varying from almost-slick weather to pretty wet. It got wetter near the end, which caught out some. The pointless teams all went out, but, rather surprisingly, so did Di Resta in 17th and Grosjean in 19th. It may have been due to wetter weather, and perhaps also because their cars look after tyres well but find it harder to get the heat into the rubber when it’s cold and wet. Charles Pic will be thrilled to, in 18th, be ahead of a Lotus.

Q2 was red-flagged with 2 minutes to go after Massa crashed. Both McLarens and Saubers also went out at this stage, as did Gutierrez and Sutil. Both Toro Rossos made it into Q3, as did Bottas.

Hamilton was agonisingly close (less than a tenth) but was pipped to pole by Vettel. Bottas did a staggeringly good job to qualify third. I doubt he’ll retain that in the race, but he should be on for good points. Rosberg was fourth, then come Webber and Alonso. Vergne, Raikkonen, Ricciardo and Sutil round out the top 10.

Hembery of Pirelli reckoned that cold weather in the race could mean that those who are harder on their tyres could benefit by getting heat into them more easily. Worth considering when looking at race betting.

Unlike at certain tedious processional circuits (yes, Singapore, you) the starting grid and final result in Montreal can be very different.

The intermediate conditions today mean that tomorrow the teams can pick and choose what tyre to start on, even within the top 10. It’s also unclear whether it’ll be dry or not (forecasts differ. The BBC reckons it’ll be wet, the other sites that it’ll be dry).

On dry race pace the Ferrari was very strong, and the Mercedes looked quite weak (relative to other frontrunners). So, if it’s dry (big if but it seems likely) then I’d guess Vettel would be mostly alright, the Mercedes and Bottas will go backwards and Webber/Alonso will go forwards.

Raikkonen’s hard to tell. He’s had a few slight issues with the car and was never anywhere near the hunt for pole. However, his win this year came from seventh and he got a second place from the same starting position, so he can’t be written off.

After sleeping on it I decided to back Webber for a podium at 2.64, hedged at 1.2. The Ferrari and Red Bull were both very good on race pace and I expected Bottas and the Mercedes to go backwards. In cooler temperatures the Red Bull may well have the edge over the Ferrari. The circuit’s one where overtaking is eminently possible so the race pace of the Red Bull should mean any pit stop faux pas is recoverable by the driver.

Regardless of whether or not that comes off I’m thinking of writing a piece trying to analyse why, good early tip in Oz aside, this season has been lamentable (from a betting perspective) so far.

Anyway, let’s hope the race is exciting and profitable.

Morris Dancer

Saturday, 8 June 2013

Canada: pre-qualifying


The tyres for this weekend are the supersoft and medium, the same as in Monaco. However, although both street circuits, Canada is very different to the principality. As well as being far more entertaining, the circuit has numerous straights and a number of slow corners/chicanes. Overtaking is eminently possible even without DRS zones (the circuit goes back to having two this year) and less than half the last 10 races have been won from pole.


On Friday (P1 and P2) the test tyres were used. These are intended to be used in the race and qualifying of Silverstone, but the old tyres will continue to be used in Montreal.

P1 was a bit soggy, and the drying track meant that the usefulness of the session was limited and the gaps between the cars exaggerated. Di Resta finished top, ahead of Button, Grosjean, Alonso, Raikkonen, Ricciardo, Rosberg, Perez, Vettel and Webber.

P2 was drier. Alonso was a tiny margin ahead of Hamilton, who was a quarter of a second ahead of Grosjean. A bit further back was Webber, then Rosberg, Massa, Vettel, Sutil, Button and Ricciardo. Sauber had a shocker, ahead only of the pointless teams.

It seems that rain is possible for qualifying and the race, but I’ll check the forecasts nearer the time. Right now I suspect the pole will be a Mercedes/Vettel affair, possibly with Alonso up there too. On race pace Lotus and Ferrari will be stronger (which Grosjean needs because he has a 10 place grid penalty for playing dodgems in Monaco).

P3 was curtailed, just half an hour long, because of barrier damage. It was also cold and wet, diminishing its value for predicting qualifying. The weather was suitable for intermediates, but with rain possible for both qualifying and the race many teams had limited or no running on that tyre to preserve their stocks of it. At the end, the track was drying and the teams went out on the supersoft tyres. As per P1, this meant that the gaps between the cars were exaggerated and the running order was something of a lottery.

Webber was fastest, followed by Sutil, Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel, Rosberg, Di Resta, Massa, Button and Raikkonen.

Brawn expected dry qualifying and a showery (intermediate) race, and suggested Ferrari were looking very/extremely strong. Gary Anderson reckons there’s little difference between a 1 and 2 stop strategy.

I’ve decided to back Hamilton for pole at 3.2, hedged at 1.4. He’s had numerous poles here in the past, looked a bit faster than Rosberg this weekend and the Mercedes appears to be fast in both dry and slightly wetter conditions.

Incidentally, my computer’s been a bit hit and miss in the last day or two. I’ll try and get the pre-race piece up as per usual, but if it doesn’t appear then it’s likely that it’s a technical issue rather than anything dramatic.

Morris Dancer



Wednesday, 5 June 2013

Canada: early discussion



[This was originally posted over on pb2]

Some tyre news: whilst Pirelli will be updating their tyres they won’t be used for qualifying or the race in Montreal, but will be used in practice. So, bear this in mind both when considering how the teams will go this weekend and how they might at Silverstone.

I think the tyres used will be medium and supersoft. Not certain, though.

In addition, Hankook have ruled out replacing Pirelli in 2014, suggesting that either someone else will do it or F1 should hurry up and sign Pirelli up again or they won’t have time to make the 2014 tyre.

Canada’s often a fantastic race, and should be several thousand times more entertaining than Monaco. Just a reminder that the timezone means everything will be relatively later (P3 ends at about 3pm, I think).

As always, your insights, tips, comments and general musings are welcome.

Morris Dancer

 


The first MorrisF1 post



Hey, kids. Unfortunately a lot of spam and difficulty resolving it on pb2 means that I’ve had to start my own blog. I’d much rather have remained at pb2, and if the issues there can be resolved I’d have no problems returning there, for F1 at least.

In the meantime, this rather rushed blog will be where I’m posting my F1 stuff, and I’ll be operating a zero tolerance approach to spam. I might also occasionally post non-betting stuff, especially regarding F1, as well as perhaps having the occasional tennis tip too.

I’ve thrown this up (ahem) rather hurriedly and will shortly be reposting the early discussion article for Canada.

Morris Dancer