Singapore: pre-qualifying
The tyres will be supersoft and medium, and with the heat
it’s possible that Lotus, being softer on tyres, will benefit (a pit stop is a
very long 29 seconds, putting a premium on fewer stops). Cheers to https://twitter.com/theWPTformula for
that thought.
However, there’s some very surprising news to discuss first.
Namely that McLaren apparently want Alonso next year (replacing Perez). Alonso
is contracted to Ferrari, but F1 contracts are like the rules of piracy;
they’re more like guidelines than actual rules. It would be quite astonishing
if next season saw Raikkonen rejoin Ferrari *and* Alonso leave that team to
rejoin McLaren. I wonder if Perez would jump to Ferrari, or if Massa
might get a reprieve. Hulkenberg and Di Resta haven’t signed anything yet
either (Hulkenberg is thought likely to go to Lotus).
Since the story first broke it’s emerged that (at the time
of writing, anyway) Whitmarsh isn’t actually speaking to Alonso. It’s still
possible, but not a likelihood, right now.
P1 had Hamilton
fastest, followed by Webber and Vettel. Rosberg was next, then Raikkonen,
Grosjean, Alonso, Perez, Vergne and Gutierrez.
In P2 Vettel and Webber led the way, followed by Rosberg and
Hamilton. Grosjean, Alonso and Button came next, with Raikkonen, Sutil and
Perez rounding out the top 10.
At this stage it looks like Red Bull will, alas, retain
their dominance, with Mercedes, Alonso and Grosjean behind them. McLaren look
reasonably competitive without setting the world alight.
P3, rather predictably, had Vettel fastest, followed by
Grosjean. Rosberg, Webber and Hamilton came next, followed by Alonso, Perez,
Hulkenberg, Button and Massa.
Sadly I missed the qualifying simulation runs at the end of
P3, so it’s hard to say if traffic played a role in any of the times.
Vettel’s only close rival was Grosjean, who was just
two-tenths off. Then there’s about half a second to Rosberg et al. Rosberg,
Webber and Hamilton have pretty close times, then there’s a gap to Alonso.
Barring rain (presently forecast as being very unlikely) or
accident it’s hard to see anyone stopping Vettel getting pole. However, his
odds are just 1.5, and given the serious possibility of a small touch on a wall
costing time and my own dislike for such short odds I’ve decided not to bet on
qualifying.
I was tempted by Hulkenberg to reach Q3 and Grosjean to be
in the top 3, but Hulkenberg’s odds of evens are too short, and the 3.5
available for Grosjean disappeared, alas.
Anyway, let’s hope Vettel has a reliability issue. It’ll
make the race and qualifying more interesting.
Morris Dancer
So far my only bet is a stonking 11/1 from Paddy Power on Grosjean achieving a podium finish.
ReplyDeleteThis bet represents great value in its own right - the next best bookie, Ladbrokes,is offering 6/1, barely half PP's odds ..... and clearly their odds can't last!
In addition this bet continues my insurance strategy relating to my SELL spread bet on Grosjean's season's points. This bet is currently showing me a small profit, but would look distinctly pear-shaped were the Frenchman to start picking up the odd podium place or two. So I'm happy to lose a few quid on each GP in order to protect my position.
I can't see anything else of interest at present, but I'll review after the qualifying session - I did think of laying Massa as I imagine he must be hugely de-motivated following his sacking by Ferrari.
Weirdly, by chance I was contemplating such a bet (although I'd only make it after qualifying) on Grosjean.
ReplyDeleteMassa may also not be helped that substantial Ferrari updates appear not to be working. If he wants to stay in F1 he's got to persuade potentially interested parties he still has the speed necessary.
Well Morris, you certainly won't get 11/1 now with Grosjean starting in 3rd place!
ReplyDeleteHa, indeed not!
ReplyDeleteI must say, though, that I'd hedge that. However, given your spread bet position you may prefer not to.
I got some on Grosjean to be top 3 at 3.5. Hedged it, but still green, so I'm not complaining.
Were Grosjean to finish 3rd tomorrow (hopefully no better), I'd make around £75 on my podium bet, but consequently stand to lose around £40 - £50 on my spread bet which I'd then close to show a modest overall profit. On this basis I won't be hedging my fixed odds bet on him.
ReplyDeletePre-race piece will be up tomorrow.
ReplyDelete