Australia: pre-qualifying

After a rather exciting set of winter tests, the first race weekend is upon us. Will Red Bull really be rubbish? Have Williams made the greatest comeback since the Second Punic War? Will anybody manage to finish the first race?

It’s worth mentioning every team will have worked on their cars extensively since the last test, whether that’s trying to extract performance or enhance reliability. So, even if we had a clear picture of how things stood at the end of the third test, things are a bit different from then.

A week or so before the race I read on Twitter that the chief of an electronics firm warned that it was possible every car could fail to finish Australia. I doubt that will happen, but reliability is a massive concern for the race.

In a BBC preview video Allan McNish reckoned the Ferrari engine was a bit too thirsty. If he’s right, that’ll be another setback for the Prancing Horse.

Before practice started I tipped and backed Williams to be the highest scoring team (Ladbrokes) 5.5. In all honesty, I would not back that right now (it will count towards the official record, as I tipped it on politicalbetting.com). Whilst I retain faith in the team’s reliability, others appeared to have made a step up in that regard, and both Red Bull and McLaren are vying with them for second on speed (Ferrari is quick over a single lap but has poorer race pace, and a reportedly thirstier engine).

Anyway, I didn’t catch P1, as it started around 1.30am, but the top 10 were: Alonso, Button, Bottas, Massa, Ricciardo, Rosberg, Vettel, Magnussen, Raikkonen, Vergne. During the P2 commentary I caught (the last hour) it emerged a sensor calibration problem prevented Hamilton getting any laps in, and both Lotus cars stayed in the garage. The Mercedes issue was just someone putting in the wrong data to a sensor, it wasn’t a mechanical or electronic failure.

P2 had Hamilton and Rosberg top, separated by a tenth and a half. The top times were set a little way apart, and a tenth and a half isn’t a huge margin. Hamilton was half a second ahead of third-placed Alonso, with Vettel a quarter of a second further back. Button, Ricciardo, Raikkonen, Bottas, Magnussen and Hulkenberg round out the top 10.

The Red Bull seems to be running much more reliably. Maldonado’s Lotus failed to get out again, which must screw his weekend. To add to his problems, Allan McNish reckoned the Lotus of Grosjean looked unstable. McNish also singled out the Red Bull and Williams for being the only cars that appeared to be running on rails, which should help tyre wear, consistency and avoiding crashes due to driver error.

Mercedes were fastest. Fastest over a single lap, fastest on race pace (by around 0.8s over Williams). Possible problems for the Silver Arrows could be fuel consumption (but most of their rivals use the same engine), Hamilton’s driving style leading to higher tyre degradation, reliability or the weather. To be honest, I think only the latter two could really throw a spanner in the works. Mercedes are looking mighty.

Incidentally, it appears that the spectre of many reliability failures might have been an illusion. Although there were some failures in practice (see below), they were nowhere near the anticipated level, and Red Bull ran very well. If this turns out to be the case on race day, Mr. Putney’s optimism on Vettel (I held the exact opposite view) could prove very profitable.

On tyres: they’re much steadier this year. There’s no cliff to fall off when it comes to performance and the tyres last longer as well. Pirelli have introduced three limitations, to the amount of heating allowed in the blankets prior to bolting the tyres onto a car, to the camber angle (so tyres don’t run just on the shoulder) and to tyre pressure. This is to help stop any recurrence of exploding (and because the tyre firm feels the teams didn’t get their fair share of the blame last year, when some teams were putting the tyres on the wrong half of the car on purpose and running severe camber angles). They’ll still be a factor, but not the critical factor they were last year, I think.

There’s a roughly 10% chance of rain, so it’s unlikely to affect qualifying. Worth mentioning in passing that Red Bull still seems to have a downforce edge, so when we get rain this will help them enjoy superior grip.

Kvyat appeared to be struggling, according to both his times and radio messages. I’d be unsurprised if he failed to escape Q1. Caterham had no real running whatsoever, and are in an even worse position than Lotus. Chilton was over a second slower than Bianchi.

Interesting to see Hulkenberg was around 0.2-0.4s faster than Perez. The Mexican’s a bit shorter, so I thought the two might be about the same speed. It’ll be touch and go as to whether Force India can reach Q3.

Sauber’s car appears ragged. I can’t see them doing too much. If the Ferrari engine is inefficient, that’ll also hamper them. Strong reliability and a high failure rate could see them sneak points, perhaps. I wouldn’t bet on it.

I anticipate a Mercedes front row. Who lines up behind them could be much, much closer.

The pre-race piece will be up around this time tomorrow. It’s unlikely I’ll offer a(nother) tip, but we’ll see how the grid and markets stack up.

Morris Dancer