China: pre-qualifying

I was intrigued by the top 3 drivers' market, but there are a huge number of potential candidates for the third spot all with good reasons for backing them, so I've decided not to bother.

Earlier this week Stefano Domenicali announced a surprise resignation as team principal of Ferrari. Whether he resigned or was resigned is not clear, at the time of writing, but it was a shock. I quite like Domenicali. He started off his F1 career working in the car park and worked his way up to being team principal of the sport's most famous name. But for a bad strategy call in 2010 and two pieces of bad luck in 2012 he would have been in charge for one or two more Alonso titles. His replacement, Marco Mattiacci, appears to be a car salesman. Many think he's an interim leader, whilst Ross Brawn (huzzah!) or Flavio Briatore (boo hiss!) are talked into taking over.

On Tuesday we found out the result of Red Bull's appeal against Ricciardo's disqualification in Australia. Apparently for all but 4 laps he was over the fuel flow limit, and Red Bull initially followed instruction to reduce the flow, but lost 0.4s a lap and so cranked it back up again. Without the extra flow rate it's believed he would have lost second to Magnussen.

Thankfully, the appeal was thrown out and the disqualification stands. That's rough on Ricciardo, but he was ill-served by the team, which just ignored a direct instruction. I'm glad this is out of the way, but it doesn't reflect well on Christian Horner or Red Bull as a team.

Anyway, the tyres are soft and medium. Degradation was an issue for Williams and Ferrari in Bahrain, with both teams requiring one more stop than those ahead of them. Given what happened with Mercedes in previous years I wouldn't expect this to change much during the season, and (if it seems like they're suffering high degradation) it has betting implications (laying points finishes or top 6 finishes could be possibilities).

P1 had Alonso fastest, ahead of Rosberg. Then came Ricciardo, Button, Hulkenberg, with Magnussen, Vergne, Hamilton, Vettel and Massa rounding out the top 10. In P1 Raikkonen didn't complete a single flying lap. I wouldn't read much into Hamilton's low position.

I caught the last half an hour of P2. The Ferraris looked more competitive on pace, although it sounded like there was some tyre degradation (tyres going after 10 laps, presumably the soft compounds) which could hamper them.

Hamilton was top in P2, followed by Alonso and Rosberg. Ricciardo, Vettel and Massa were next, followed by Raikkonen, Button, Grosjean and Kvyat.

According to the forecast there's an 80% chance of rain for qualifying. This will probably harm Williams and help Red Bull.

I looked at several bets. Laying Bottas to reach Q3 and backing Vettel, Ricciardo or Alonso to get pole.

Bottas had only a little available at evens, and I'd probably want 1.5 or similar.

Vettel, Ricciardo and Alonso had odds of 14, 16 and 14 respectively with Ladbrokes (each was 1/3 the odds for the top 2). If it rains that'll help the Red Bulls, and I'd more inclined to back them than Ferrari, but I have a feeling Mercedes haven't been showing their true pace, and it's pretty hard to guess which Red Bull would be faster. Unlike Malaysia, where Vettel got within a tenth of the fastest time in practice both Red Bulls have been a bit off the pace (for pole, they've been a bit closer than has been the case lately).

So, I suspect, wet or not, we'll have another Mercedes front row, but a Red Bull up there would not be a shock. If qualifying's wet that could hamper Alonso, who has been performing well in practice, and annoy Williams (excepting Bahrain qualifying this year has been wet). Force India and McLaren seem a little behind the Prancing Horse and Red Bull so far, but we'll have to see how they change things for qualifying.

Qualifying is at 7am, UK time.

Morris Dancer