Predicting the Hamilton-Rosberg tussle
We're
four races into a probably 19 race season (there's still a chance the
inaugural Russian Grand Prix, due in October, could be suspended or
cancelled for political reasons). Intriguingly, every single
qualifying session and race, excluding Australia where Hamilton
suffered a DNF due to reliability failure, has been identical to 2013
in terms of which Mercedes driver was faster.
Now,
that could be coincide but it's 7/7 which suggests that even if last
year isn't a perfect guide, it's at least worth bearing in mind.
However, there were a few DNFs last year. In addition, the Indian
Grand Prix has gone (huzzah), we see the return after some time of
the Austrian A1 Ring, and the probable first race in Russia. Upon
checking, we also lost Korea.
So,
even though we have 15 races still ahead, not all of them can be
considered for predictive purposes. Here's how they stacked up in
2013 (first name is qualifying 'winner', second the highest placed in
the race):
Spain
– Rosberg Rosberg
Monaco
– Rosberg Rosberg
Canada
– Hamilton Hamilton
Great
Britain – Hamilton Rosberg*
Germany
– Hamilton Hamilton
Belgium
– Hamilton Hamilton
Italy
– Rosberg Rosberg
Singapore
– Rosberg Rosberg
Abu
Dhabi** - Rosberg Rosberg
USA
– Hamilton Hamilton
Brazil
– Rosberg Rosberg
*Hamilton
suffered a tyre explosion, the race result could easily have been
different
**
double points this year, of course. Bloody stupid rule, but one we
must consider.
So
that gives:
Rosberg:
Spain, Monaco, UK*, Italy, Singapore, Abu Dhabi, Brazil
Hamilton
– Canada, Germany, Belgium, USA
That's
8 (counting Abu Dhabi double) for Rosberg to 4 for Hamilton. If Mercedes maintain
their dominance and all else is equal (ie neither driver is more
disadvantaged by misfortune than the other) then that would give
Rosberg a lead of 28 points (4 x 7, the advantage a winner has over
second place).
However,
the Silverstone race was bad luck on Hamilton's part. If we shift it
to Hamilton's column, we get 7:5, a Rosberg advantage of 14 points.
There
are also other races we need to consider, namely: Hungary, Russia,
Austria.
I've
glanced at the circuits, and would guess Rosberg might do better as
Austria and Hamilton Russia. Not sure about Hungary. Very hard to pass there, so it could well come down to the start.
Now,
if the above is vaguely accurate, the title race will be on a
knife-edge. Happily, we'll get a pretty quick indication whether or
not the 7/7 is a coincidence, or whether it really does point the way
of things to come. Rosberg has to win either Spain or Monaco (or
both) to keep his hopes alive. If he does, then I would make him
marginal favourite.
Hamilton
is driving extremely well, and he's rightly considered favourite for
the title. But if the pattern persists, it'll be very close and will
go down to Abu Dhabi.
However,
as well as the relative performance of each driver we need to
consider whether or not Mercedes will maintain, lose or even increase
their advantage over the rest of the field. A large part of it comes
from having the best engine and having configured it in a way which
is (if you are an engineer and understand this sort of thing, which
I'm not and don't) fantastic. Improved software will see Ferrari and
Renault engines improve, but they won't match Mercedes.
Aerodynamically
Red Bull remain top dog, but Mercedes aren't too far behind and are
probably ahead of everyone other than Red Bull.
It's
possible Red Bull, Ferrari, Force India and McLaren might nab the
higher spots now and then. Pushing a Mercedes driver down to third
would cost him an extra 3 points to his team mate (assuming the other
wins), and down to fourth would cost 3 more on top of that.
But,
if other teams won (followed by Mercedes 2-3) that would push them
down to getting 18 and 15 points, decreasing the advantage the lead
driver would get.
We
might well have the title decided by reliability of the car and
consistency. Spain and Monaco will be useful. If Rosberg loses both,
it's pretty much goodnight Vienna. If he wins one the game is afoot
(especially if it's Monaco). If he wins both then it's advantage
Rosberg.
Morris
Dancer
Comments
Post a Comment