Spain: post-race analysis
The
race wasn't a classic, although the end was entertaining, but the bet
came off (just). Overall the weekend was slightly green.
Off
the start Bottas took third from Ricciardo, and Button left the
handbrake on. Otherwise drivers mostly held station. Grosjean had a
lock-up into the first turn but managed to stay ahead of both
Ferraris, Raikkonen retaining his place ahead of Alonso.
In
the initial phase of the race Hamilton slightly pulled away from
Rosberg, and the pair of them galloped away from the battle for
third. Bottas remained ahead of Ricciardo on track, but after the
first pit stops were done the amiable Aussie was a distance ahead and
untroubled in third for the rest of the afternoon.
After
the first stops Hamilton went medium and Rosberg hard, but the gap
didn't really change, staying around 3-4s. In the final stint
Hamilton was on the hard tyres and Rosberg the medium. The German was
on a charge, but may have left it a lap or two too late, and although
he was very close (less than a second) at the end he couldn't pass
Hamilton.
However,
it's worth pointing out that Rosberg was faster on the 'slower' hard
compound than Hamilton on the medium, but when the tyres were
switched the German was still faster. Spain is a hard circuit to
overtake on, and although this is a good win for Hamilton we still
cannot count Rosberg out because he was very, very close. The win
means Hamilton leads the title race for the first time.
Grosjean
initially held onto fifth but spent the rest of the race slowly
descending down the order. Given the Lotus' horrendous start to the
season I was pretty impressed with the Frenchman, who ended up 8th
and got Lotus their first points of the season.
Bottas
nearly had 4th, but was passed by Vettel, who had a very
good day and rose inexorably through the field from 15th
to 4th. I think he must be amongst the happiest of chaps
after the race, given how difficult the weekend (and season) had been
up until that time. Red Bull firmly look to be best of the rest right
now, but they're still a day and a half behind Mercedes. Hamilton
finished 49 seconds ahead of Ricciardo.
Alonso
was kept behind Raikkonen most of the time, but the two went on a
split strategy which ultimately saw Alonso get the better of his
Finnish team mate. However, it was the most competitive (relative to
Alonso) I think Raikkonen's been this year. That's good, but the car
is not. It needs more in both power and aerodynamic terms. Rumours
have resumed about Ferrari trying to tempt Newey, and Alonso
considering jumping ship.
Force
India had a quiet day. Perez was less than a second behind Hulkenberg
for most of the race, eventually passed him cleanly (but didn't make
a huge gap) and the pair finished 9th and 10th
(which was nice). The car needs updates, and fast, or they'll get
left behind.
McLaren's
nightmare continues, with a third successive pointless race (they
finished 11th and 12th). It's simply not good
enough. Next year they have the opportunity to make a great leap
forward as sole customers of Honda (who may well try and copy the
Silver Arrows' cunning layout of the engine and its various bits and
bobs). However, their problem isn't really power, it's aerodynamics.
Honda won't help with that. Hiring a chap or two from Red Bull may
help.
Bit
perplexed by Massa only finishing 13th. Not sure if I
missed an incident, but that means he went backwards from the grid,
and finished very poorly compared to 5th-placed Bottas.
After
5 races of a probable 19 races (Russia could yet be axed or even replaced
by Azerbaijan) the championships look like this:
Hamilton
100
Rosberg
97
Alonso
49
Vettel
45
Ricciardo
39
Hulkenberg
37
Bottas
34
Mercedes
197
Red
Bull 84
Ferrari
66
Force
India 57
Williams
46
McLaren
43
The
drivers' title, barring something highly unlikely, is still a
Mercedes duel. The advantage is Hamilton's, but isn't so great that
we can yet write off the season. If Rosberg loses in Monaco, that'll
be a significant blow. Not only will he have lost two races (Spain
and Monaco) at which he beat Hamilton last year, but it's a street
circuit, and if Hamilton can win there and Abu Dhabi it'll make it
much harder for Rosberg to bounce back.
The
Constructors' is a reasonable guide to pace. Mercedes are best, by a
mile, and Red Bull are best of the rest. In Monaco, Red Bull may be
closer to challenging the Silver Arrows. All the sliding cars are
doing due to torque exceeding grip will be interesting on a circuit
90% plus of which is ringed by barriers.
Monaco
is in a fortnight.
Morris
Dancer
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