Hungary: pre-race
Hamilton
must be cursed. His Mercedes burst into flames before he could set a
time. Good for the bet, but yet more abysmal luck for the Briton.
In
Q1, before Hamilton's fire, Maldonado also retired without setting a
time. The drama did not stop there, as Raikkonen, who suffered no
problems I was aware of, was knocked out of qualifying at this stage.
Bianchi put in a great lap to knock the 2007 world champion out. The
Caterhams and Bianchi's team mate Chilton also left at this stage.
Bianchi
was on the soft and Raikkonen on the medium tyre, which turned out to
be a crucial error of judgement by the Finn/Ferrari. Nevertheless, a
great lap by Bianchi.
Immediately
afterwards Hamilton suggested the engine and gearbox would need
replacing. He also said it was “beyond bad luck”. I would guess
that's implying reliability is simply not good enough, rather than
implying there are dark arts at work.
Initial
word was that it was a fuel leak.
In
Q2 Perez suffered a hydraulic problem which prevented him setting
many fast laps and ended his qualifying. Kvyat, Sutil, Perez,
Gutierrez, Grosjean and Bianchi left qualifying in Q2. A better
performance by Sutil, perhaps flattered by Raikkonen and Hamilton's
early exit, but even so, a bit of an improvement by Sauber.
In
Q3 rain started to come down, so they all went out early in case
conditions got worse. Rosberg locked up and lost his fast lap, the
rain was very heavy, and a red flag came out before anyone could set
a timed lap. The red flag was due to Magnussen going off straight
into the tyre wall.
When
the red flag disappeared and the session restarted everyone was on
slick tyres.
Rosberg
ended up with pole. Vettel grabbed second, and Bottas continued his
great run of form for third on the grid. Ricciardo was next, Alonso
and Massa share the third row, Button, Vergne, Hulkenberg and
Magnussen (assuming he doesn't get any penalties) round out the top
10.
Penalties
are possible for Hamilton and Magnussen, and perhaps Perez as well
(due to the hydraulic issue).
I
watched the BBC qualifying highlights. Magnussen is definitely
starting from the pit lane and Hamilton probably will. Very bad news
for the Briton, as he'll miss the chance to mug half a dozen slower
cars from a standing start.
Also
learnt that the crash Massa had last time meant a new chassis and an
older floor that'll cost him a few tenths of a second per lap.
There
also appears to be a higher than 50% chance of rain during the race.
My
initial betting thoughts were:
Red
Bull top score
Williams
top score
Vettel
podium
Hulkenberg
top 6
Lay
Hamilton podium
Red
Bull are 3.5 to top score. Hmm. Not sure about that. I do think both
cars will finish in the top 4, all else being equal, but it's hard to
tell how Hamilton will do, how rain will affect things and if Bottas
can hold onto third or even gain a place or two off the start. Worth
considering, though.
Williams
are 12. Given the new habit Massa has of crashing and the fact his
car's a few tenths off the pace, this doesn't tempt me.
Vettel's
odds of 1.4 for a podium are a bit mean, frankly.
Hulkenberg
is 3 for a top 6 finish. Force India's a little off the pace lately,
but I rate his driving highly and if it rains he's one of several
(Vettel, Bottas and Button being the others who spring to mind) who
could benefit.
I
was a bit surprised Hamilton's out to 3.7 or so for a podium. Not
something I'd back, but also not layable.
Anyway,
decided to back Red Bull at 3.5 with Ladbrokes. I think rain would
help rather than hinder them, and if Hamilton really does struggle
then they stand a decent chance. Furthermore, I can see Massa going
backwards (or crashing...) and Ricciardo undercutting Bottas.
Really
hot/humid here, so hopefully this isn't heat-addled nonsense.
Morris
Dancer
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