Belgium: pre-qualifying
There were
a lot of driver stories in the days running up to P1, and even during
the first practice session itself.
Max
Verstappen, 16 year old son of ex-F1 driver Jos, is to replace Vergne
next year. Bit rough on Vergne, who is beating talented newcomer
Kvyat and was basically equal to Ricciardo. At least the early
announcement gives him time to try and secure a drive, unlike when
Toro Rosso tossed Buemi and Alguersuari overboard with so little
notice neither could get a seat elsewhere.
Lotterer
replaces Kobayashi in the Caterham this weekend. It appears to be a
one race deal. Bit odd, frankly. Even more weirdly, Alexander Rossi
(a Yankee doodle that Gene Haas reportedly wants for his team in a
couple of years) replaced Max Chilton for the whole weekend, due to
‘contractual’ difficulties. Only he didn’t as, halfway through
P1, it was then reported Chilton would race as usual and Rossi would
only get the seat for P1.
Sounds
like Chilton wanted a better deal in some manner, and Marussia played
hardball, causing the Briton to back down.
Anyway,
tyres for the weekend are soft and medium. Two stop is likely but (if
it’s dry and there’s a long safety car period) a one stop is not
impossible. At the last check, rain was probable for qualifying and
possible but odds-against in the race.
In P1
Rosberg was less than a tenth ahead of Hamilton. Alonso was close
behind in third and Button was a more distant fourth. Raikkonen,
Perez, Magnussen, Hulkenberg, Ricciardo and Bottas rounded out the
top 10.
P2 had
Hamilton fastest, but I do not believe the 0.6s gap to his team mate
reflects actual pace (Rosberg screwed up his fast lap). Alonso was
again third, followed by Massa, Button, Bottas, Kvyat, Ricciardo,
Magnussen and Hulkenberg.
Maldonado
crashed in P2, bringing out a red flag, and Vettel never got to set a
time (his engine had to be changed). One of the Sauber drivers
suffered some sort of failure and brought out another red flag.
At this
stage, it looks like Alonso could be good for a podium. McLaren seem
to have made progress and I’ll see what their odds are (depending
on how they line up on the grid) for a double points finish.
Williams
were off the pace a bit but they often seem to sandbag during
practice.
P3 started
very slightly wet so a few went out with intermediates and wets, but
it was mostly dry (rain forecast for qualifying, though). Bottas was
fastest, followed by Ricciardo and Rosberg, then came Raikkonen and
Hamilton. However, I think Mercedes were massively sandbagging. After
Hamilton was Alonso, Button, Massa, Vergne and Perez.
Given the
rain forecast for qualifying I decided against betting. Rosberg being
3.5 or so for pole (for the third race in a row) tempted me, and if
it had been forecast to be dry I think I might’ve backed it.
Should be
tight, if Q2’s dry, to see who gets into the final session.
My
suspicion is Ricciardo will do well, and Alonso. Probably but not
definitely between the two Mercedes. In the dry, Williams might pose
a threat. In the wet, I don’t think they will. Force India and
McLaren (and maybe Vettel) will struggle to break into Q3.
Morris
Dancer
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