Belgium: pre-race
There was significant
rainfall prior to qualifying, but the sun emerged before the session
started.
Q1 was very wet. Some
went out on full wets, most on intermediate. Both Caterhams went out,
as did Gutierrez (who had a reliability failure, again), Chilton,
Maldonado and, surprisingly, Hulkenberg. Bianchi did a great job to
get into Q2, and, somewhat surprisingly, the Williams were (after
Mercedes) the fastest. Would’ve expected Red Bull to be a bit
faster. Lotterer (replacing Kobayashi this weekend) did well to beat
Ericsson, although both are rooted to the bottom of the grid.
Kvyat, Vergne, Perez,
Sutil, Grosjean and Bianchi left the stage during Q2, which was
another persistently wet session. Mercedes were untroubled at the to,
with Ferrari and Williams vying for best of the rest, and Red Bull a
shade slower.
In Q3 Rosberg put in an
early great lap, good enough for pole, and improved a little to get
it by two-tenths over Hamilton. The Mercedes was in a league of its
own, about two seconds better than everyone else. Vettel got third,
Alonso fourth, Ricciardo fifth. Bottas, Magnussen, Raikkonen, Massa
and Button rounded out the top 10.
Weather forecast for
tomorrow is a likelihood of a dry race, although rain remains
possible.
The bets I considered
immediately after qualifying were:
Alonso podium
Bottas podium
Vettel podium
Hulkenberg points
Alonso for a podium
tempts me quite a lot. The Ferrari seems to have been improved a bit,
the Williams was a shade lacklustre and Alonso’s a great driver. On
the other hand, his odds with Betfair are just 3 (I really wanted 4),
and 3.5 with Ladbrokes, but no possibility to hedge.
Bottas was about the
same (2.75) with both. He’s a very good driver and the Williams’
top speed should help a lot, but he starts sixth and if the Ferraris
or Red Bulls can make enough of a gap the top speed advantage won’t
matter (unless the Williams is faster over the whole lap).
Vettel was roughly the
same odds. I fear that in the dry he might get mugged by just about
everyone on a top speed section, though.
Hulkenberg was just 1.3
for points, which is taking the piss (Ladbrokes didn’t have this
market up nearly an hour and a half after qualifying ended).
The markets weren’t
really going so I decided to leave it a bit and check back after tea.
After tea:
Hulkenberg’s points
odds were just evens on Betfair. Realistic as a possibility but not
tempting at those odds.
In the end I decided to
back Alonso for a podium at 3.25, hedged at 1.5. If a Mercedes (or
both) fails that’ll help, but I also think he’s the most talented
driver chasing, and Ferrari appear to have taken a step forward.
I suspect the fight for
the win will be a prolonged duel between Hamilton and Rosberg. The
former, starting second, claimed it was the better position based on
recent history (with potential to pass early on).
It’ll be fascinating
to see how Red Bull, Ferrari and Williams compete for the scraps.
Rain’s unlikely but it could happen, and that would make things
even more interesting.
Morris Dancer
Rain is looking quite likely now. Very overcast and looking ominous.
ReplyDeleteThere are occasional drops visibly falling in the puddles on the tv feed.
I've largely followed you in on your ideas today as I've got some new loose change following the cricket yesterday but haven't done any serious thinking about Spa. So good luck to both of us!
Alas, the penalty cost him dearly. Podium possible without it, though I suspect not. Writing the post-race piece now.
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