Russia: pre-qualifying

The main news in F1 is that Bianchi, who had that horrendous crash in Japan, has suffered diffuse axonal injury. It is an incredibly serious injury, and let’s hope Bianchi can make the fullest recovery possible. Marussia are (as a mark of respect) only running Chilton this week, and have not replaced Bianchi.

As well as by all accounts being a tremendously popular driver, Bianchi was also a real talent. Like Grosjean and Hulkenberg, it was very easy to see him in a top team, and the sport may have lost one of its great starts of the future.

Lotus will have Mercedes engines next year. A great coup for the beleaguered team, who were reportedly struggling to find, essentially, the cash for a deposit. Mercedes engines are cheapest, most efficient and fastest, so that’s a nice plus for Lotus which hasn’t had much good news of late.

First race in Russia. My impression of the track isn’t great, to be honest. Anyway, grip’s fairly low, medium and soft tyres appear to last forever so a one-stop strategy could work (two might be better, not due to degradation but pace difference between the compounds).

In P1 Rosberg was less than a tenth ahead of Hamilton, with Button only a tenth or so further back. Alonso was fourth, then came Magnussen, Perez, Kvyat, Raikkonen, Vergne and Bottas.

In P2 Hamilton was eight-tenths up on Magnussen, with Alonso, Rosberg and Bottas close behind the Dane. Button, Massa, Kvyat, Vettel and Vergne round out the top 10.

The McLarens looked good. Not good enough to challenge Mercedes but certainly capable of troubling the top 6. Red Bull look a bit off the pace, quite literally, and Ricciardo suffered some variety of power unit failure in P2. I imagine they’ll improve their game, but the question is: how much?

Entirely a guess on my part, but I do think we’ll have a safety car.

In P3 Hamilton was fastest by about three-tenths (see note below), with Rosberg and Bottas very close to one another in second and third. A little further back was Ricciardo, Massa, Kvyat, and Raikkonen, all close, and then Alonso, Vergne and Vettel.

Hamilton had a spin fairly late on in P3, and could’ve gone quicker. Magnussen had some sort of failure during P3 and never got in anything like a fast lap. The Williams was looking feisty, and the Red Bull a bit below par. Ferrari seem off the pace and McLaren’s early promise appeared diminished in P3. Not awful (I expect both Button and Magnussen to make Q3) but they may struggle to make the top 6.

Overtaking should be pretty difficult, so qualifying’s pretty important (in relative terms), especially given there may well be a single pit stop per car.

All else being equal I expect Hamilton to get pole relatively comfortably. Rosberg’s really off the pace, which is a little surprising. Bottas could challenge for second place.

Don’t bet on qualifying at every race, but two potential bets whose odds I thought worth checking were:
Lay Vettel Q3
Bottas top 3

The Vettel lay odds were evens, which was far too long, but Bottas was a surprising 1.85 to be top 3. Bear in mind, he was seven-tenths ahead of the chap in fourth. I think that’s worth a bet (with Betfair).

So, a qualifying tip:
Bottas to be top 3 in qualifying at 1.85 (Betfair)


Morris Dancer

Comments

  1. There is hope for Jules - Richard Hammond suffered a DAI in 2006 when he crashed at 288mph in a jet propelled dragster.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I didn't know that. I do hope he can make a full recovery.

    ReplyDelete

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