Abu Dhabi: pre-qualifying

I must admit to being significantly surprised Caterham will be racing in Abu Dhabi. Kobayashi will drive one of their cars [Ericsson, of course, has terminated his deal with the team already and next year will drive for Sauber, assuming the contract dispute with Sutil is resolved in the team’s favour]. The second will be driven by British chap Will Stevens, who makes his F1 debut.

At the same time, it’s sad to hear that over 200 Caterham employees have been made redundant, and that some feel the announcement of the return in Abu Dhabi was made to try and bury that bad news.

Surprisingly, Eddie Jordan has called on Ecclestone to stand down. It was my understanding the two got along pretty well, but it’s worth recalling that Jordan used to run his own midfield team, which may well affect his view of the current financial situation.

In staggeringly unsurprising news, it’s finally been confirmed Alonso’s leaving Ferrari, and is being replaced by Vettel. At the time of writing, it’s believed, but not confirmed, to be the case that the Spaniard will rejoin McLaren. However, that team has indicated it will reveal its 2015 driver lineup in December (there’s some disagreement over whether they ought to retain Button or Magnussen).

The tyres for this weekend are soft and supersoft.

Although Abu Dhabi is what might be termed a street circuit, there are a few areas of high speed, which makes it better than it might be for Williams. In title terms, the risk for Hamilton is that he gets stuck behind one or both Williams and finds it hard to get past.

If both Mercedes finish then, barring a very weird result the likes of which we haven’t seen all year, Rosberg needs to win. Hamilton can finish 1st or 2nd. If he’s 3rd and Rosberg wins, then the German takes the title.

Whilst the Red Bull is fast, the Mercedes will murder it on the straights, so I think Williams likelier to pose a potential problem for Hamilton. If the Briton has a clear qualifying and doesn’t leave the handbrake on during the start, he’s set fair. But, as Rosberg discovered in Singapore, reliability can fail at any time.

In P1 Hamilton was a tenth ahead of Rosberg, and both were over a second and a half ahead of third-placed Alonso. Vettel was next, then Ricciardo, Vergne, Kvyat, Bottas, Perez and Hulkenberg (so quite team-by-team).

I watched most of P1, and it was notable for the Williams undressing itself and meaning both drivers got very limited running.

P2 again had Hamilton ahead of Rosberg, but by less than a tenth of a second this time. Magnussen was seven-tenths down the road, then we had Vettel, Bottas and Ricciardo. Raikkonen, Button, Kvyat and Massa rounded out the top 10.

According to the BBC’s Inside F1, Red Bull were closer to the Mercedes on race pace (a few tenths down) compared to a single lap, but Williams never really showed their hand. Also worth noting Alonso’s Ferrari broke down.

P3 saw the order at the sharp end reversed, with Rosberg over a third of a second ahead of Hamilton. Massa was over a second off the top time in third, with Alonso fourth. Vettel, Button, Ricciardo, Bottas, Kvyat and Raikkonen finish off the top 10.

During P3 it sounded like Ricciarod wasn’t happy with the set-up, which may bode ill for the race for Red Bull.

Two bets I think worth considering are:
Rosberg for pole (it’s a coin toss, so I’d want something a fair bit over evens)
Massa top 3 in qualifying

Rosberg’s odds are barely over evens. I do think it’s coin toss territory, so that doesn’t tempt me.

Massa’s just over 3 (Betfair) top be top 3. Hmm. That’s interesting, but it’s not enough. There are six cars behind him within four-tenths, and two within three-tenths.

The pre-race piece will probably be up sometime this evening.


Morris Dancer

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