America: pre-race

In addition to the 5 and 10 place grid penalties for Button and Kvyat respectively, and a pit lane start for Vettel, Vergne has changed his engine and earnt himself a 10 place grid penalty.

In Q1 we said farewell to Vergne, Gutierrez, Vettel and Grosjean. Vettel was only trundling about as a token appearance rather than putting in any effort, due to his starting from the pit lane.

Q2 saw Maldonado, Perez, Hulkenberg and Kvyat depart. However, it was great for Sutil and Sauber, who got a car in the top 10 for the first time this year.

In Q3 Rosberg got pole (mildly irked I didn’t back that, but if he can convert it to a win that’ll be nice for the title bets) ahead of Hamilton, with Bottas next on the grid. Worth mentioning the odd side of the grid is reckoned to be a bit of an advantage off the line. Massa is alongside Bottas, and after that the rows are: Ricciardo, Alonso, then Button, Magnussen, with Raikkonen and Sutil at the end of the top 10.

Hamilton reported a vibration on his Q2 tyres which could prove detrimental for him in the early part of the race tomorrow. He’s got a small flat spot on his tyres (perhaps likewise Rosberg). Seems both Mercedes chaps may have problems locking up. Hmm. Wonder if it’ll prove difficult for them in the race.

Giedo Van Der Garde and Marcus Ericsson may be driving for Sauber next year, according to BBC-reported rumour. [After writing this Ericsson was confirmed as a 2015 Sauber driver].

With Mercedes locking up a lot it’s possible Williams could top score. I also think Bottas stands a strong chance of a podium, and Vettel has a shot at reaching the top 6.

Williams top score
Bottas podium
Vettel top 6

I considered Williams to top score on the basis that Mercedes do appear to be suffering problems with locking up, especially Hamilton. The 5 available is too short, though. If Rosberg wins and Hamilton’s 5th, that would still beat a Williams 2nd and 3rd.

Bottas was just under evens with Betfair for a podium, but just 1.66 with Ladbrokes. The Betfair bet is tempting.

Vettel was less than 2.5 to be top 6, which isn’t long enough. With the Mercedes, Williams, Ricciardo and maybe McLaren being competitive (as well as perhaps Alonso) and Vettel starting from the pit lane, that’s too tight.

I quite like Bottas at 1.89 for a podium, but thought I’d have a quick scout about for anything else that leaps out at me. 

Bottas to lead lap 1 at 15 was a little tempting, but that really is guesswork. (I’d back him rather than Hamilton because the odd side of the track is a little bit advantageous).

So, just the one bet:
Bottas to get a podium at 1.89. No hedge.

The race start is unusually late, at 8pm. BBC highlights start at 10.30pm.


Morris Dancer

Comments

  1. Many thanks for the post, Mr Dancer. Very informative.

    I've taken Bottas at each way and also podium and leading after lap 1. In fact this is probably the most driver-specific race I've ever punted on.

    So I took your Vettel top 6 tip just to have at least one non-Bottas bet. And for the bragging rights here when it comes in and I was on your idea and you weren't :)

    9pm start here though. Right in the middle of the pub quiz. I will have to multi-task. Not good.

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  2. Must admit, I was tempted to stick a few pounds on Bottas to lead lap 1.

    Less convinced by Vettel. Even with an overtaking set-up he may struggle to pass Mercedes-powered cars on the straights.

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