Brazil: post-race analysis

An absolute cracker of a race, and a green one as well. Obviously, due to the hedge, better if you bet and forget than if you hedged.

Off the line it was formation flying for the front four. The Red Bulls drifted backwards and Button held fifth. There was no contact on the first lap despite the tricky opening few corners.

Rosberg set off at a blistering pace, and at the end of lap 1 was 0.8s ahead of Hamilton. Bottas was hot on Massa’s heels and the top four were slowly drawing away from Button. The Red Bulls (Vettel ahead) had gotten stuck behind Alonso. The Red Bulls were faster in the twisty middle sector but it’s hard to overtake there, and once again the car was shown to be lacking in straight line speed, preventing them from effecting a pass in the prime overtaking spot (the ‘straight’ at the end of the lap).

The track was hotter than expected, and was actually damaging the tyres. Pirelli had wanted a medium-hard combination, but the drivers thought it too conservative and it was changed to soft-medium. Hamilton was setting a blistering pace just before a pit stop, enough to leapfrog his team mate, but his rear tyres let go and he spun. It wasn’t critical but it cost him about seven seconds and gave Rosberg breathing room.

Behind them, Massa (who accidentally hit the pit limiter twice) was done for speeding and given a 5s stop and go penalty. With Bottas a few seconds down the road and Button on his tail it seemed the Brazilian would be down to fifth. However, Bottas had a very slow stop due to a strange issue with his seatbelt. Button also had a poor stop (not as bad as Bottas, mind) which enabled Massa to retain his third position.

Ricciardo retired due to what I think was a suspension problem. Vettel, however, had managed to get ahead of Alonso and went after Button.

Hamilton’s spin meant he was over seven seconds behind Rosberg. He began taking great chunks out of that lead, until it was down to about two seconds. After the final pit stops, he emerged half a second behind his rival. Hamilton was faster in the prime overtaking place but Rosberg had the edge on the twisty section. Lap after lap they went around, Hamilton always within DRS range. One mistake from Rosberg would be enough to cost him the win.

But he didn’t make a mistake. He kept his head, and took the win. Hamilton’s 2nd means he’s still in the best position for the title, but if Rosberg wins in Abu Dhabi Hamilton must be 2nd. If Rosberg is 1st and Hamilton 3rd, Rosberg would take the title, thanks to the idiocy of double points. If Hamilton failed to finish, 5th would be enough for Rosberg to claim the title.

Late on Grosjean retired, for reasons I’m unsure of.

Massa was a comfortable, if isolated, 3rd and Button had a strong 4th. Vettel came home 5th with Alonso 6th. Unusually, there was a contest between the Ferraris, who were on different strategies (Raikkonen had track position but his tyres were 17 laps older). For some time the Finn kept the almost certainly departing Spaniard behind him, but eventually the rubber gave way and Alonso breezed past his team mate.

So, Raikkonen was 7th, and Hulkenberg (who I think had one fewer stop than most people) a decent 8th. Magnussen, who may well stay and partner Alonso next year, was 9th, and Bottas nabbed the final point.

Perez (who also got a 5s stop and go penalty) was second to last, the filling in a Sauber sandwich. Both Toro Rossos finished pointlessly and Maldonado was 12th.

Congratulations to Mr. M for correctly betting on a Rosberg win and Button top 6 finish, although no safety appeared, alas.

Hamilton’s 17 point lead over Rosberg would be very comfortable with a single race left, if it were not for the moronic decision to give Abu Dhabi double points. The Briton retains the advantage, but forget ye not that Rosberg’s damned good on street circuits and it’s no stretch to see him winning. Overtaking’s very hard, so if there’s an issue in the race (or maybe qualifying) Hamilton could be screwed by misfortune, as happened to Rosberg in Singapore.

The Constructors’ isn’t quite settled either (except the top two spots). The third position is still undecided as are lower ranks:
Mercedes 651
Red Bull 373
Williams 254
Ferrari 210
McLaren 161
Force India 127

I expect the teams to be in the same order after Abu Dhabi, to be honest. After their early season heroics Force India must be disappointed to, in all likelihood, finish sixth.

The dominance of the Mercedes would allow a driver with a bad start or poor grid slot to get past many others in Abu Dhabi. But a Williams (for example) could be a bugger to try and pass. The title is not over yet. In a fortnight, a fantastic F1 season will be decided.


Morris Dancer

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