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Showing posts from 2015

2015 season review

Well, that wasn’t a classic. I finished moderately ahead, which is good, but it was a bit down on some other years. In racing terms, the total dominance of Hamilton, especially in the first half of the season, made the title race a concept rather than a reality. Mercedes Probably increased their margin over the field compared to last year. Reliability improved to near perfect, pit stops were all good and the only black spot was a perplexing (some would say suspicious, but I think that’s a bit conspiracy theory) loss of pace in Singapore. Their engine remains the best, though Ferrari narrowed the gap, and the car itself was one of the best, making it formidable almost everywhere. Ferrari Made a great leap, from 4 th to 2 nd this year (the opposite of Red Bull). Vettel fits the team like a glove, and, whilst Raikkonen was lacklustre, the two drivers actually get along. Right now they seem the team likeliest to challenge for the title in 2016 but there remains

Abu Dhabi: post-race analysis

A straightforward case of poor judgement on my part with the bet. Unfortunate, but if I had perfect judgement this betting business would be a lot easier. The start of the race was great. Hamilton was a bit slow and it seemed either Perez or Raikkonen might pass him. However the Ferrari and Mercedes closed off Perez’s path, which meant he had to back out, and Hamilton fended off the Finn’s advances. Hulkenberg passed Bottas and Ricciardo, Sainz pulled off multiple passes and Vettel (admittedly with a much faster car than those around him) roared up the field. It was a bad first lap for Alonso, and worse for Maldonado. The Venezuelan was put out of the race by the Spaniard, who had himself been forced to collide with the Lotus after he was tagged by a Sauber. Alonso was compelled to take an early pit stop, then insult was added to injury when the stewards, led this week by Stevie Wonder, blamed him for it and gave him a penalty. For a short time the top four were pr

Abu Dhabi: pre-race

Well, qualifying did not go quite to script. The grid is unexpected in a few ways, which may hopefully create opportunity. In Q1, the Manor Marussias of Stevens and Merhi were at the back, but the other three cars all had misfortune of one kind or another. Ericsson suffered a reliability failure, Alonso could’ve reached Q2 but got a puncture and Vettel/Ferrari simply believed the German’s lap was good enough, didn’t go out again, and ended up 16 th . Of course, Vettel had to start from the back due to disqualification in 2012, and ended up on the podium (I think), so he may yet have a good race. In the second session, Grosjean’s Lotus failed him, so he starts 15 th . Ahead of him as Nasr, Maldonado, Button and Verstappen, who qualified a tiny margin behind his team mate and loses (10-9) the qualifying head-to-head against Sainz, who I think is a bit overlooked. Q3 was quite exciting for a few reasons. After the initial run, Perez was ahead of Raikkonen, in 3 rd . Rosber

Abu Dhabi: pre-qualifying

Got the feeling this might be the last race broadcast on the BBC, perhaps on free-to-air TV. We shall see. Important off-track rumours swirl. Aston Martin may end up taking over Force India. The team has punched above its weight for a while now, and has a very solid driver line-up, so I wish it well. Still no official confirmation, but it seems Red Bull, for all its owner’s bitching, will have a Renault engine next year. However, the Lotus-Renault deal, which is meant to be all but done, may have hit a late snag. Not surprisingly, Ecclestone and money are involved (because Renault would be rejoining the sport as a constructor, some manner of deal was done with Ecclestone and apparently it’s fallen through). The sport really does need to get a grip on finance and spread the wealth more fairly. Next year Haas will have the 2016 Ferrari engine, whereas Toro Rosso are likely to have the 2015 version (from around Texas-time). Worth considering when looking at the

Brazil: post-race analysis

Must be said this was not a classic. Not enthralling to watch, and not profitable either, with both McLarens being uncharacteristically reliable, and not even a crash to enliven proceedings. Bit disappointing, given the circuit. Anyway, off the line Bottas shot up from 7 th to 5 th , but otherwise it was largely trouble-free (before the start, Sainz’s Toro Rosso stopped and he had to start from the pit lane). Sainz’s engine then conked out on lap one. And it pretty much stayed that way throughout. There was some good defensive driving by Rosberg (though Hamilton seemed to give up near the end), and Hulkenberg, little seen, managed to keep Kvyat behind him after retaking the place by undercutting with an earlier pit stop. An impressive drive by the German and a good result to comprehensively beat his team mate after being overshadowed in recent races (must be said Interlagos is not Perez’s favourite track, but might be Hulkenberg’s). Massa was a bit lonely an

Brazil: pre-race

Qualifying went more or less to form, with some woe for Grosjean and McLaren, and a good performance by Hulkenberg. Grid penalties and overtaking potential, and perhaps weather, may present opportunities come the race. In Q1 we saw the traditional McLaren engine calamity, which forced Alonso to sunbathe before joining Button on the podium for larks. As well as the two McLarens, both Manor cars failed to progress, and Maldonado, disappointingly, was fastest of those to leave at this stage. Q2 was rather more competitive. Grosjean should’ve been in with a chance of reaching Q3 but left it late to go out, then spun and ruined his tyres, to the extent he qualified a paltry 15 th . Nasr did well to qualify 11 th , ahead of Sainz and Perez (who was comprehensively outqualified by his team mate), with Ericsson between Perez and Grosjean. Worth noting that as well as Bottas’ three place penalty and Ricciardo’s 10 place drop, Nasr may suffer a penalty for badly blocking Massa in

Brazil: pre-qualifying

Been having some monitor issues, so if the pre-race or post-race pieces do not emerge, that’s why. Unless I’ve keeled over, obviously. In foot-shooting news, Dietrich Mateschitz, owner of Red Bull and Toro Rosso and chap desperate for a competitive engine, has taken the not necessarily clever step of insulting every manufacturer. It seems entirely possible both teams could just leave next year. It’s his own damned fault for burning bridges with Renault and not having another engine lined up, but it’ll be a great shame for the many hundreds of people who work for the two teams if they lose their jobs because Mateschitz is a spoilt brat. Saw neither of the first two practices sessions (I tend to watch online, and, consequently, forgot). Tyres are soft and medium. Anyway, Hamilton was fastest by half a second in P1, leading his team mate, followed by Vettel, Ricciardo and Raikkonen. Kvyat was next, then Bottas, Verstappen, Hulkenberg and Maldonado. In the second

Mexico: post-race analysis

A good race from a betting perspective, and reasonable as a spectator. The Nasr bet was plain wrong. I overestimated attrition and the pace of the car, and he was always behind his team mate too, so that was just a smorgasbord of ill-judgement on my part. The Bottas bet had its fair share of luck, but luck does play a role in F1 betting, more, perhaps, than other sports, and I shan’t complain if it’s good. At the start, Vettel and Ricciardo came together at the first corner. The Aussie was clearly behind, and had it been at any time other than the start I suspect a penalty would’ve been dished out. It gave Vettel a puncture at the worst place to get it. Otherwise it was pretty much formation flying. Massa did get ahead of Bottas but then locked a brake and lost the place. Rosberg broke free of DRS range from Hamilton fairly easily, and though the two Mercedes were never more than a few seconds apart the pair of them swiftly began leaving Kvyat, Ricciardo, Bottas et al. far b

Mexico: pre-race

Button was not able to get out for qualifying due to a signal problem, so will start last. Ferrari did good work to resolve an exhaust problem for Raikkonen. In Q1, as well as losing Button, we saw the departure of Alonso, Nasr, Rossi and Stevens. The last few minutes of Q2 saw raindrops coming down. Sainz was the fastest man to leave at this stage (it was tight at the lower end of the top 10), with Grosjean and Maldonado both failing to reach the next session. Ericsson was next, and Raikkonen slowest, due to his issues (detailed below). Raikkonen may well get a 5 place grid penalty should he change his gearbox. He suffered a brake issue during Q2 [although there are reports he just didn’t bother due to his grid penalty], as well as the problem he had in practice. He pitted in Q2 after going out on medium tyres, rather than the faster softs. Bloody odd to just not set the fastest time possible, if that is what happened [possible the car just wasn’t as good as it should

Mexico: pre-qualifying

In not very shocking news, Mexican eyebrow-enthusiast Esteban Gutierrez (former Sauber driver) is to join Haas, alongside Grosjean. Whilst he seemed amiable at Sauber, Gutierrez never really set the world alight and Grosjean will be a de facto, if not de jure, number one in that team. Graeme Lowdon and John Booth are reportedly going to leave Manor at the end of the season. I’ve seen Lowdon interviewed a couple of times, and he always came across as someone with his head screwed on right, working hard to try and secure the team’s ongoing existence and propel it up the grid. It also seems technical chief Bob Bell is to leave the team. If Manor do leave the sport it would be a great shame after it was rescued at the 11 th hour last year, and as it has Mercedes engines and Williams components due for 2016, which would really help the team improve its pace. There are also talks going on between Aston Martin and Force India, though nothing has been announced as yet. Th

US: post-race analysis

US: post-race analysis In betting terms, the race was more or less flat. One bet came off, the other didn’t. Both had the pace but either a small mistake or some misfortune with the track cost Hulkenberg. So, a slight shame there, but these things happen. The race was difficult to follow at the time, let alone recall the following day’s afternoon, as there were four safety car periods (two virtual, two actual). Therefore, I have cheated somewhat and used a short highlights video to remind me what went on. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34632902 At the first corner, Hamilton barged his way past Rosberg. Not the most gentlemanly of moves, and the German seemed quite unimpressed with it after the race. It also allowed both Red Bulls to pass Rosberg at the same time and Perez shortly thereafter. Vettel had a storming first lap, climbing all the way to 7 th from 15 th in short order. In the early stages of the race the Red Bulls appeared faster, on a da

US: pre-race

Only 2/3 practice sessions were run, because it became dangerously wet towards the end of Q2. Even so, it was full wets only both Q1 and Q2, which were not without incident. In Q1, Sainz introduced his wheel to the curb, and his car to the wall. Wet and tricky, but the second qualifying in a row this occurred, though thankfully the crash was far more minor this time. As is traditional, both Manors also failed to progress. The Saubers both exited the stage here as well, after struggling consistently in the wet conditions. Q2 was pretty tight. The Red Bulls had a lovely day, almost challenging Mercedes for the top spots, and there was a nice spat between the Force Indias, Williams, Lotus and McLaren to see who else could make it through. Ferrari were so-so, but both drivers (due to an engine change) will incur a 10 place grid penalty and, in soggy weather, that could prove more significant than would usually be the case. Because of worsening weather, Q3 was cancelled and

US: pre-qualifying

The race has been overshadowed, almost literally, by Hurricane Patricia. The hurricane, with the most powerful winds ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere, has struck Mexico, but its long range effects include massive rainfall in Texas. It’s entirely possible qualifying will be delayed and there’s a chance the race itself may be cancelled (and that Mexico’s return to the calendar may have to be put back to 2016). In happier news, Jolyon Palmer will drive alongside Pastor Maldonado at Lotus next year (or Renault, as it may well be known). Assuming the team makes the grid. P1 was soggy indeed, but for the sake of completeness: Rosberg was quickest, ahead of Kvyat, Ricciardo and Sainz. Next up was Hamilton, Vettel and Verstappen, with Raikkonen, Alonso and Bottas rounding out the top 10. The second practice session was rained off. If we do have a race and it’s rainy, that will relatively assist the Red Bulls and Toro Rossos, whilst harming Williams significantly. I’

Russia: post-race analysis

A quite entertaining race, and a green bet. Better without hedging, of course. As it happens, the hedged and non-hedged season to-date profit levels are now exactly matched. Hard to assess whether it was a wise or lucky bet due to the high number of racing incidents. The race was interesting from the start, with Raikkonen getting past Bottas and Rosberg just managing to fend off Hamilton. Hulkenberg spun early on, giving Verstappen a puncture and ending Ericsson’s race. After the safety car, Rosberg did well to keep Hamilton behind him, but the German developed a terminal throttle problem and was forced to retire. That ended excitement at the sharp end, but fortunately there was entertainment to be had further down the field. Grosjean was following Button (the Lotus having pitted) when he got out onto the marbles, lost control, and introduced his car to the barriers. A second safety car emerged, during which many cars visited the pits. Perez was an early pitter, as was

Russia: pre-race

Sainz remained, as expected, in hospital undergoing checks during qualifying. He appears to be fine, and is intent on performing in the race, though I’m not sure if the team or medical staff will agree. As expected, both Marussias left in Q1, as did Ericsson and Alonso. Only the Mercedes managed to make it through without using the substantially faster supersoft tyres. Q2 was rather more competitive, with every departing driver from a different team. From 11 th to 15 th , we lost Kvyat, Nasr, Button, Maldonado and Massa. Massa reportedly had bad traffic, and by the time he cleared it his tyres had gone. There was a second from Maldonado to his team mate, and nearly two betwixt Massa and Bottas, so that seems credible, given how closely matched the Williams drivers have been this year. In Q1 we had a slight surprise, with Rosberg getting his second consecutive pole. He was faster than Hamilton in all sectors, and topping the time sheets in every session. No fluke this.

Russia: pre-qualifying

The tyres this weekend are soft and supersoft. Lauda reckoned Mercedes were worried about a Singapore-style blip because of the smooth track surface (Mexico is reportedly similar), but we’ll see how that goes. Alonso has a new and apparently improved Honda engine. Button does not, because there’s only one. The first two practice sessions are worthless, as the first suffered a delay due to a massive diesel spillage and the latter was very wet. However, I’ve included the top 10s for the sake of completeness [top 8 for P2 as only 8 completed timed laps]. P1: had a German top group of Hulkenberg, Rosberg and Vettel, followed by Perez, Ricciardo and Sainz, with Hamilton, Bottas, Verstappen and Raikkonen rounding out the top 10. P2: Massa, Vettel, Bottas, Verstappen, Alonso, Kvyat, Sainz and Button. The third practice session was curtailed when Sainz had a significant crash which brought out the red flag. Again, for the sake of completeness only, here’s the top 10:

Japan: post-race analysis

Not a classic, either as spectacle or bet. The bet narrowly failed, making it two red results this weekend. It’s particularly disappointing as both were very close, but losing’s losing whether it’s by an inch or a mile. GeoffM’s bets (posted on previous article) were sound, excepting the Massa bet. Good spot on Sainz for points, which I would not have backed [being honest]. Off the start, Rosberg cocked up and slipped back to 4 th . The rest of the top five flew in formation, but the Lotuses and Hulkenberg had decent starts. There was woe further back, with a tiny collision [so small it was barely perceptible] between Ricciardo and Massa giving both punctures on the starting straight, and put them both a minute and a half back by the time they trundled into the pits. Perez also got a puncture on lap one, but later in the lap, and he lost 40-50s or so. Gaps opened up, except between Bottas and Rosberg. The German closed on the Finn but was unable to pass and eventu

Japan: pre-race

Bit frustrating in qualifying. Sainz was 8 th at the end of the first run in Q2, but ended up 12 th , after suffering a bad set of tyres (not just an excuse, the vibration was so extreme it was visible externally). Would he have made Q3, given he didn’t improve and all those around him did? Hard to say. He would have had a shot, and the tyres prevented that. The upside is that my ‘brave’ bet, whilst wrong, did appear to have some basis in reality. Q1 ended early with a yellow flag for Verstappen when his car ran out of electricity. Both Manors left at this stage, as did both Saubers and Button. Verstappen did make it to Q2 but was not able to run and therefore qualified 15 th (pending potential penalties). In Q2, Sainz was initially sitting pretty in 8 th , with the Force Indias and Lotuses off the pace (Alonso also being slow, as one would expect). However, all save Sainz improved at the end, which meant he was only 12 th , immediately behind Hulkenberg, who takes a 3 pla

Japan: pre-qualifying

Quite a lot of important off-track stuff to consider before we come to the race weekend. Most obviously, a few days after Volkswagen buying Red Bull became a story it emerged the car maker has been cheating on emissions tests. This has led to multi-billion dollar fines being mooted in the media, and the CEO’s resignation. Naturally, this throws into significant doubt the potential deal with Red Bull. It may yet happen, or be delayed, but we shall have to wait and see. On a related note, Ferrari has indicated it will offer Red Bull engines. This would probably be for a couple of years whilst VW [perhaps] develops their own engine. However, Red Bull, maintaining its deserved reputation for entitled whining, now wants a works deal (parity with Ferrari, rather than with Ferrari’s other customer teams). If not, they’re threatening to quit the sport. Given that Ferrari has offered at very short notice to provide engines (a not inconsiderable undertaking due to the staffing/i