Malaysia: pre-race

The predicted thunderstorm turned up during qualifying, which adds an intriguing dimension to the race: will anyone have gone for a wet set-up to optimise qualifying, but potentially costing them pace in the race?

Q1 went pretty much to form, with the Manor of Merhi off the pace (to the extent he’s outside the 107% rule and must apply for permission to start) and Will Steven’s Manor Marussia failing to even set a time due to a technical fault. Both McLarens again failed to escape the first part of qualifying, with Button marginally faster than Alonso. Nasr will be disappointed to be the chap who got 16^th, particularly after his great weekend in Australia. The Brazilian’s looked a bit out of sorts in Malaysia.

The second part of qualifying began with a long queue in the pit lane, due to an imminent storm, which duly turned up. Despite some traffic issues for Hamilton, the Briton made it through, although Raikkonen did not. Maldonado also left the stage here, as did both Force Indias and Sainz.

Q3 was delayed due to the heavy rainfall. When it did get going there was some silly buggers going on between Hamilton and Rosberg. The German didn’t quite block the Briton, but did go on the racing line. After that, the Briton slowed down to compromise the German’s lap. As a result, Vettel got 2^nd, less than a tenth behind Hamilton [ominously for Mercedes, the Ferrari has been about as fast as them on long runs, and more reliable than Hamilton’s car]. It was good for Red Bull with 4^th and 5^th, Verstappen got a great 6^th, and was followed by Massa, Grosjean, Bottas and Ericsson [the Swede’s first time not only to make Q2, but into Q3 as well].

The Q3 times were all set on intermediate tyres on a rapidly drying track.

The Williams definitely looks a little on the ropes, and Ferrari are looking feisty. Good enough to match Mercedes? Maybe. Maybe not.

I expect the Red Bulls to slide down the order. The Renault is far slower than the Ferrari or Mercedes engine. Correspondingly, I expect Raikkonen to cut through the field and easily make the top 6 [the Ferrari is faster in a straight line even than the Mercedes and will murder rivals on the two massive straights in Sepang].

The bets that first sprang to mind after qualifying were:

Raikkonen top 6

Vettel podium/win

Sainz points

Ferrari top score

Grosjean top 6

Lay Ricciardo top 6

Raikkonen was 1.85 with Betfair to be top 6. I think he’s got a great chance (near certain, barring reliability issues or mishaps) and have backed it [and tipped it, elsewhere as soon as I saw it].

Vettel was 1.5 and 10.5 respectively for a podium and the win. A win isn’t beyond the bounds of possibility. But, I don’t think it’ll happen. The odds are long enough to hedge, though, so it’s worth pondering.

Sainz is 2.75 for points. Bit short for my liking, especially given his engine.

Grosjean’s 2.25 is a bit short for top 6.

The top scoring team market wasn’t up when I first checked Ladbrokes, and Ricciardo had no lay odds for top 6 (alas, the back odds were 1.23. I would’ve bet against quite heavily if 1.24 had been layable).

I checked later, and the top scoring team market still wasn’t up. Grosjean to be top 6 is something I decided to consider again, and the odds had lengthened to 2.5, so I decided to back that.

So, two short odds tips (both Betfair):

Raikkonen to be top 6 at 1.85 [I’d back at 1.7 or longer]

Grosjean to be top 6 at 2.5

No hedging.

Weather forecast for the race is 60% chance of rain. So, wet pace may well be relevant but is not, I think, going to be decisive.

And don’t forget, the clocks go forward (in the UK) tonight, so don’t miss the start of the race (8am UK time. I think).

Morris Dancer