Testing Thoughts
The three pre-season
tests are over, and there’s less than a fortnight until the first
weekend of the season proper begins in Australia.
I cannot stress enough
that headline times should be almost entirely ignored. The very large
fuel tanks, substantial variation in pace due to tyres and new
upgrades/changing weather conditions mean that very very little can
be taken from the times.
Mood music is the way
to go, although this is obviously not very precise. It’s also worth
considering that we know, more or less, how good the drivers are and
are uncertain of the cars, but the cars are more important than the
drivers when it comes to determining pace.
Here’s a concise
summary of my views on how things are likely to stand for the first
race*:
Title Contenders
Mercedes – still
fastest. Perhaps by a long way, perhaps by a little less. I still
think they’ll dominate the season, although the margin may be less
comically enormous than last year. Off-chance they’ll face a
serious challenge.
Ferrari – looking
good. But they were flattered by testing last year and that was a dog
of a car. However, the consensus seems to be it’s genuinely
improved. The engine is also better and may be closer to the Mercedes
than any other. Could be second fastest.
Red Bull – the
Renault engine now runs more smoothly and has room for development
but in power terms it’s an anorexic against a sumo wrestler. It’ll
still be great on more aerodynamically dependent circuits, but right
now it’d be murdered at Monza. Perhaps third.
Williams – it’s all
going rather well, despite a change in lubricants/fuel etc apparently
meaning a significant power loss. Good enough to challenge Mercedes?
Maybe. Where they slot in with Ferrari and Red Bull is uncertain, but
it’s likely they’ll remain super-fast in a straight line but
lacking aerodynamic grip compared to Mercedes/Red Bull. A win in
Austria seems eminently possible.
*NB McLaren have
historically done well in Australia. It would be a mistake to assume
a strong result there is necessarily indicative of everything being
great for the time (they got two podium spots last year, after
Ricciardo was disqualified, but that was not a good indicator of
their season-long performance).
Midfield
McLaren should not be
considered midfield runners given their drivers and resources,
but their testing seems to have been inspired by Red Bull’s 2014
misadventures. They could graduate to top team status, but with such
a lack of running to iron out bugs (let alone perfecting set-up) it’s
hard to see them being there right now. The car will be dragged to
some success by its drivers. If it doesn’t break down first. There
was better running late on, but McLaren is still far, far behind
other teams when it comes to development.
Force India only
brought their new car to the last three days of testing (testing
totalled twelve days). Last year the car started off very competitive
but it ended poorly, and the lack of proper testing suggests money
woes could affect the development cycle. Should be a solid, but
unspectacular car. It was very reliable during its minimal testing, which is a good sign.
Lotus had a horrid car
last year. This year they’ve got the Mercedes engine (which is
cheaper and better than all others) and the car seems rather more
stable and sensible. I’d expect fairly regular forays into the
points, especially from Grosjean.
Backmarkers
Sauber had a bloody
atrocious car last year. This year’s seems a bit more solid but
it’s hard to judge pace. I would guess it’ll snaffle the odd
point, more than that may be doubtful.
Against
all the odds, Marussia has risen from the dead to be reborn as Manor.
However, the lateness of their resurrection suggests their car will
be well at the back, circulating by itself (a shame after they closed
the gap a little in 2014). It's done no testing whatsoever.
Vague forecast
I
still think this’ll be another strong Mercedes year. It’s also
worth noting that if the car’s relatively slower but more reliable
than 2014 then they’ll actually score more points. Accordingly,
I’ve backed Rosberg and Hamilton for the title.
It
should be pretty interesting, especially with the pack of Ferrari,
Williams and Red Bull seemingly close together on pace, though
perhaps some way off Mercedes.
Engine
development can happen in-season, so that’s another area which will
see significant upgrades. The development race may not alter the
winning team, but even if it doesn’t, it could significantly
shuffle the pack.
To Oz
First
off, the race starts at 5am, UK time. This is because the start,
previously 6am, has been pushed earlier an hour so that if there’s
a delay the light remains a little brighter. The change, whilst
irksome for a UK viewer, has come about because of Bianchi’s crash,
and is intended to improve safety. I believe about three other races
are similarly affected.
As
mentioned above, McLaren tend to do rather well in Australia, so
don’t get carried away if they have a great race.
The
pre-qualifying piece will be up a day earlier than usual, because P3
will take place at an unholy hour. No idea if I’ll offer a tip or
not. I’ll check the markets and see how they look.
I’m
really rather looking forward to it.
Morris Dancer
At the front, Mercedes will romp away. Ferrari will chase Williams for wins when Mercedes muck up. I also expect more ructions between Hamilton and Rosberg, but Hamilton has to be favourite for the title. Bottas has to be in with a chance of third place in the driver's contest.
ReplyDeleteOf the rest, I expect Lotus to do much better than last year (not difficult), and Sauber to also get a few points. The wild card is McLaren-Honda - it's a shame their bes race is the first.
I wish Marussia well, but fear for them.
Bottas has a chance, but it's worth recalling Massa had a very strong end to the year.
ReplyDeleteIf Mercedes don't cock up, they *could* get all the victories. Odds against, but I'm content with the small sum at 17 or so I have on it happening.
This year for Marussia is basically a year of trundling round at the back, a shame after they had somewhat closed the gap. 2016 matters more for them (when Haas joins, and we may see another new team as well).
I agree Hamilton is favourite, but Rosberg's odds are too long.