Testing Thoughts

The three pre-season tests are over, and there’s less than a fortnight until the first weekend of the season proper begins in Australia.

I cannot stress enough that headline times should be almost entirely ignored. The very large fuel tanks, substantial variation in pace due to tyres and new upgrades/changing weather conditions mean that very very little can be taken from the times.

Mood music is the way to go, although this is obviously not very precise. It’s also worth considering that we know, more or less, how good the drivers are and are uncertain of the cars, but the cars are more important than the drivers when it comes to determining pace.

Here’s a concise summary of my views on how things are likely to stand for the first race*:

Title Contenders

Mercedes – still fastest. Perhaps by a long way, perhaps by a little less. I still think they’ll dominate the season, although the margin may be less comically enormous than last year. Off-chance they’ll face a serious challenge.

Ferrari – looking good. But they were flattered by testing last year and that was a dog of a car. However, the consensus seems to be it’s genuinely improved. The engine is also better and may be closer to the Mercedes than any other. Could be second fastest.

Red Bull – the Renault engine now runs more smoothly and has room for development but in power terms it’s an anorexic against a sumo wrestler. It’ll still be great on more aerodynamically dependent circuits, but right now it’d be murdered at Monza. Perhaps third.

Williams – it’s all going rather well, despite a change in lubricants/fuel etc apparently meaning a significant power loss. Good enough to challenge Mercedes? Maybe. Where they slot in with Ferrari and Red Bull is uncertain, but it’s likely they’ll remain super-fast in a straight line but lacking aerodynamic grip compared to Mercedes/Red Bull. A win in Austria seems eminently possible.

*NB McLaren have historically done well in Australia. It would be a mistake to assume a strong result there is necessarily indicative of everything being great for the time (they got two podium spots last year, after Ricciardo was disqualified, but that was not a good indicator of their season-long performance).

Midfield

McLaren should not be considered midfield runners given their drivers and resources, but their testing seems to have been inspired by Red Bull’s 2014 misadventures. They could graduate to top team status, but with such a lack of running to iron out bugs (let alone perfecting set-up) it’s hard to see them being there right now. The car will be dragged to some success by its drivers. If it doesn’t break down first. There was better running late on, but McLaren is still far, far behind other teams when it comes to development.

Force India only brought their new car to the last three days of testing (testing totalled twelve days). Last year the car started off very competitive but it ended poorly, and the lack of proper testing suggests money woes could affect the development cycle. Should be a solid, but unspectacular car. It was very reliable during its minimal testing, which is a good sign.

Lotus had a horrid car last year. This year they’ve got the Mercedes engine (which is cheaper and better than all others) and the car seems rather more stable and sensible. I’d expect fairly regular forays into the points, especially from Grosjean.

Backmarkers

Sauber had a bloody atrocious car last year. This year’s seems a bit more solid but it’s hard to judge pace. I would guess it’ll snaffle the odd point, more than that may be doubtful.

Against all the odds, Marussia has risen from the dead to be reborn as Manor. However, the lateness of their resurrection suggests their car will be well at the back, circulating by itself (a shame after they closed the gap a little in 2014). It's done no testing whatsoever.

Vague forecast

I still think this’ll be another strong Mercedes year. It’s also worth noting that if the car’s relatively slower but more reliable than 2014 then they’ll actually score more points. Accordingly, I’ve backed Rosberg and Hamilton for the title.

It should be pretty interesting, especially with the pack of Ferrari, Williams and Red Bull seemingly close together on pace, though perhaps some way off Mercedes.

Engine development can happen in-season, so that’s another area which will see significant upgrades. The development race may not alter the winning team, but even if it doesn’t, it could significantly shuffle the pack.

To Oz

First off, the race starts at 5am, UK time. This is because the start, previously 6am, has been pushed earlier an hour so that if there’s a delay the light remains a little brighter. The change, whilst irksome for a UK viewer, has come about because of Bianchi’s crash, and is intended to improve safety. I believe about three other races are similarly affected.

As mentioned above, McLaren tend to do rather well in Australia, so don’t get carried away if they have a great race.

The pre-qualifying piece will be up a day earlier than usual, because P3 will take place at an unholy hour. No idea if I’ll offer a tip or not. I’ll check the markets and see how they look.

I’m really rather looking forward to it.


Morris Dancer

Comments

  1. At the front, Mercedes will romp away. Ferrari will chase Williams for wins when Mercedes muck up. I also expect more ructions between Hamilton and Rosberg, but Hamilton has to be favourite for the title. Bottas has to be in with a chance of third place in the driver's contest.

    Of the rest, I expect Lotus to do much better than last year (not difficult), and Sauber to also get a few points. The wild card is McLaren-Honda - it's a shame their bes race is the first.

    I wish Marussia well, but fear for them.

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  2. Bottas has a chance, but it's worth recalling Massa had a very strong end to the year.

    If Mercedes don't cock up, they *could* get all the victories. Odds against, but I'm content with the small sum at 17 or so I have on it happening.

    This year for Marussia is basically a year of trundling round at the back, a shame after they had somewhat closed the gap. 2016 matters more for them (when Haas joins, and we may see another new team as well).

    I agree Hamilton is favourite, but Rosberg's odds are too long.

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