Bahrain: pre-qualifying
The tyres this time
round are soft and medium. It’s a night race, again [well, sunset
is three minutes after the start time], which, unfortunately, may
decrease tyre wear. That said, Ferrari are looking good on long runs,
although unlikely to trouble Mercedes in qualifying.
Although it’s less
likely to have an impact during qualifying compared to the race, the
engines do seem a bit wonky (especially Renault), Vettel had brake
issues in practice, and Button’s McLaren failed in both sessions
(Alonso’s was looking reasonable).
Speaking of McLaren,
they reckon that, correcting for the power deficit, it’d be
0.6-0.7s or so off the Mercedes, which is more or less Ferrari
territory. Something to consider if/when they get their arse in gear
this season, and for 2016.
In P1, Raikkonen was
fastest, two-tenths up on Vettel. Then we had Bottas, Sainz,
Ricciardo, Verstappen, Alonso, Nasr, Kvyat and Massa. The Mercedes
were working fine, but given it’s much warmer at that time of day
than either qualifying or the race the team decided to test some
potential new parts rather than try and work on pace issues. This
irked me a little, as I’d considered backing Raikkonen at 15 to be
fastest (each way for top 2) in P1. However, Mercedes may adopt a
similar tactic in certain comparable races (maybe Singapore/Abu
Dhabi), so I’ll try and remember for then.
In P2, normal service
was [almost] resumed. Rosberg was a tenth up on Hamilton. Neither got
a perfect lap, however. Raikkonen was next, again a tenth ahead of
Vettel, who was a tiny margin ahead of Bottas. Ricciardo and
Maldonado were separated by twenty-five thousandths, with Nasr, Kvyat
and Massa rounding out the top 10.
P2 may, unusually, be
more indicative of pace than P3, because it occurs at the same time
of day as qualifying/the race, and therefore is of more use for the
teams. From watching the summary video, it also seemed the track
wasn’t as cool as expected, which may mean tyres are an issue.
During P3 an engineer
from Williams played down the prospect of them beating Ferrari in
qualifying, and suggested Vettel was very fast indeed.
“Vettel
was on average 0.6secs a lap faster than Rosberg when they were both
running the 'soft' tyre, which will be the main one used in the
race.”
In P3, Hamilton was
less than a tenth ahead of Vettel. Rosberg was a few tenths further
back, a tenth ahead of Raikkonen. A more substantial gap led to
Bottas and Massa, with Maldonado next up, then Ricciardo, Hulkenberg
and Nasr.
Maldonado’s been
faster than his team mate all weekend (admittedly, Grosjean missed
P1) and Nasr’s been top 10 in every session. The Ferraris and
Mercedes look close, though I suspect the Silver Arrows will still
dominate qualifying. The race might be different.
Right after qualifying,
bets that sprang to mind were:
Raikkonen top 3
Rosberg pole
Nasr to reach Q3
Maldonado to reach Q3
I also considered the
following race bets:
Ferrari, highest
scoring team 4.5
Vettel each way win 6
Raikkonen each way win
10
Raikkonen top 3 (in
qualifying) is 2.16. Not tempting, as, although he has a crack, I
suspect the familiar trio of Hamilton, Vettel and Rosberg will get
there.
Rosberg’s only about
2.8 or so for pole. Too short, given Vettel seems to have a realistic
chance and Hamilton is favourite.
There’s only a
pathetic 1.55 for Maldonado to reach Q3 (the Red Bulls, Saubers, his
own team mate and maybe Toro Rossos/Hulkenberg could prove
troublesome, so this is the least tempting so far). There’s 1.6 for
Nasr, again, not very intriguing.
I was briefly tempted
by the winning margin, but if Mercedes are slightly sandbagging they
could be a fair way ahead of Ferrari, which makes things hard to tell
(time-wise) when it comes to the winning margin.
I considered laying
Rosberg at 1.14 to be top 3 in qualifying, but the money disappeared
the moment I looked at it.
So, no bet on
qualifying.
Ferrari are 4.5 to top
score. If all four Ferraris/Mercedes finish then, assuming there’s
no huge problem, they’ll be in the top four. Therefore, winning the
race = being the top scoring team (1st and 4th
yields 37 points, 2nd and 3rd 33 points). I
think Ferrari has a realistic prospect of doing this, their pace
seems to have worried Mercedes and Williams appear to think (in the
race) the prancing horse is too much for them to handle.
Vettel’s available at
6 to win, Raikkonen 10 (each way is 1/3 the odds for top 2). The Finn
shouldn’t be underestimated. But for the safety car he might’ve
beaten Vettel in China, or run him damned close. On Betfair, they’re
6.8 and 13.5, respectively.
Whilst I’m tempted by
those driver bets, and the Top Scoring Team bet, I expect Mercedes
to get a 1-2 in qualifying. If they do, the odds will lengthen. If you think
Rosberg or Hamilton will start behind one or both Ferraris, the top
score bet is probably the first one I’d look at.
So, no tip, but the
qualifying and race look like they could be pretty exciting.
Morris Dancer
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