China: pre-qualifying

Ahead of qualifying, there are a few critical questions. How rapidly can McLaren resolve their substantial issues? Can Williams fight at the front? Will the Red Bull engine get sorted? And, most importantly, will Ferrari be able to fight the Mercedes on pace or was that a one-off due to the particularly hot and humid situation in Malaysia?

The Chinese track is a very nice one to answer the final question. It’s got plenty of straights, including one of the longest in F1 (Abu Dhabi’s might be longer by a smidgen). The prancing horse gallops faster than the rest on a straight, but in the corners the Mercedes has the advantage. So, if Ferrari can fight with Mercedes at circuits which aren’t very hot and humid, and if the team wants a shot at the title, this is the sort of place they must be competitive and (ideally) winning.

In P1 Hamilton led Rosberg by half a second, with Vettel half a second further back and Raikkonen yet another half-second down the road. Nasr was also 0.5s back, followed rather more closely by Ricciardo, Kvyat, Sainz, Bottas and Massa.

Hamilton also led in P2, four-tenths up on Raikkonen. Ricciardo was seven-tenths back, with Vettel and Rosberg within a tenth of the Aussie. Kvyat was four-tenths off Rosberg’s time, followed by Bottas, Nasr, Grosjean and Button.

There was a slightly idiotic comment by someone or other on the BBC livefeed that the substantial gap between Mercedes and Ferrari was indicative of the Silver Arrow reasserting dominance. Not really. The Mercedes was four-tenths faster in every practice session in Malaysia, and we know how that turned out. Of course, you’d prefer to be ahead than behind, but it’s entirely possible that’s a mirage of performance advantage rather than a true reflection of being substantially quicker.

Checked Twitter briefly during the back end of P2. Sounded like the Mercedes was half a second up on the soft tyres, but Raikkonen was marginally faster than Rosberg on the medium compound. That suggests Mercedes should be set fair for qualifying, but if they can’t make the soft tyres last a while and/or screw up strategy, Ferrari could give them another thrashing.

At this stage, we may yet have a Mercedes-Ferrari fight for the win, though I think qualifying is near certain to go to Mercedes. Williams seem a little off the pace, still, and Red Bull may have made up some ground. Nasr’s looking pretty good and, along with the Lotuses, should be fighting to be reach Q3.

Bets that leapt to mind were:

Hamilton pole

Lay Rosberg top 3 [just a weird hunch]

Nasr top 10/reach Q3

Vettel pole, each way

Hamilton’s 1.4 for pole. That’s actually a bit longer than I was expecting. Somewhat conflicted about that, as I think it very likely, but there’s always the risk of a technical failure. I also happened to spot that Vettel is 1.7 to be top 3, which may be better value.

There wasn’t much to lay Rosberg, just a little at 1.2 [so can’t tip it as there’s not enough there]. I probably wouldn’t’ve in any case.

Irritatingly, there’s just 1.5 available for Nasr to be top 10 (I’d want 2.5 preferably, or longer).

Vettel at 15 to get pole (each way, 1/3 the odds for top two) is tempting. I could see him beating Rosberg as well as Raikkonen.

I waited quite a few hours to see how the markets matured, but there wasn’t any more for Nasr, and the odds are a bit stingy (barely longer than Hamilton for pole), so I decided against that.

Vettel each way for pole (top 2, effectively) at 15, Hamilton pole 1.4 and Vettel top 3 at 1.7 looked the most tempting.

In the end, I went for Vettel top 3 at 1.7 with Betfair, no hedging. The other two were interesting, but I dislike such short odds for Hamilton, and the Vettel bet seems best value to me. He can get it whether the Ferrari’s on terms with Mercedes or not.

Qualifying’s expected to be dry, but the race may be wet, so I’ll be checking the weather forecast closely tomorrow. It starts at 8am.

Morris Dancer