China: pre-race
For such a short odds
bet, the Vettel tip was much closer than I anticipated, or wanted. In
the end it came off, which is a nice start to both the weekend and
qualifying betting in 2015.
The first session of
qualifying was pretty close (backmarker Manor Marussias aside). In
the end, Hulkenberg was the fastest chap to be booted out, ahead of
the two McLarens (although the gap from McLaren to the rest of the
field appears to have declined).
The second session was
even more competitive. Maldonado failed to reach Q3, as did Kvyat
[perhaps a shade disappointing], both Toro Rossos and Perez, who
starts directly ahead of his team mate.
Q3 was a little odd.
Mercedes were ahead by miles, as expected, although Rosberg did
manage to close the gap to a miniscule 0.04s. Williams suddenly came
to life and looked in danger of locking out the second row and
shunting the Ferraris back to row three. In the end, Vettel’s final
lap put him 3rd on the grid, with Massa (who looked pretty
good in qualifying) ahead of Bottas and then Raikkonen. Three-tenths
down the road is Ricciardo (the Red Bull appears to gradually be
improving), then Grosjean. Huge kudos to Sauber for getting both
their cars into Q3, just over a tenth behind Grosjean and with Nasir
less than a tenth ahead of Ericsson.
It also emerged during
qualifying chatter that Ferrari lose only about a tenth of a second
on used soft tyres, whereas Mercedes lose three-tenths. Given the
soft tyre is perhaps as much as two and a half seconds a lap faster
than the medium, and two stops are expected, this may prove
significant. On single lap pace the Mercedes are in a league of their
own, but the Ferraris may be more competitive on race pace
(especially if they can use the faster tyres for longer and with less
wear). Ferrari also appear to have one more set of fresh soft tyres
for the race, which may prove handy. I think there are 56 laps or so,
which means perhaps 15 laps [guesswork, it’s approximate at best]
on new soft tyres. Against that is
that the Mercedes appears to be faster generally, so I’m doubtful
that the Ferrari can beat them on pace.
I expect Raikkonen to
advance up the order. Unfortunately, there are markets for top 6 and
podium, and I suspect he’ll rise from 6th to 4th,
so that’s not something easy to put money on.
Grosjean’s a bit
tricky. I expected him to do better last time, but he did suffer a
race-long power shortage. I do rate him as a driver, I’m uncertain
about his car’s reliability/pace, though. Sauber seem fairly quick,
but the battle for the back end of the points will be fierce. It
seems the top end may be dominated by car performance, with 7th
onwards determined more by driver ability.
Weather forecast:
Race start is 2pm local
time (7am UK). Rain had seemed possible, but the forecast now
indicates a very low chance of rain.
In the last 10 races
only 3 have seen a safety car make an appearance [sometimes due to
rain].
Potential bets are a
bit tricky. It looks a fairly safe bet on a Mercedes 1-2 (though it’s
not certain), and Vettel seems highly likely for the final place on
the podium. So, I looked, initially, elsewhere to see what seemed
tempting:
No Safety Car
No Safety Car
Maldonado/Grosjean for
points, or a Lotus double score
Alonso points
No Safety Car was
available at 1.8. For something that’s occurred 7/10 (I think)
times in the most recent past, that seems good value, especially
given the race is expected to be dry (and rain played a role in at
least one race where the safety car made an appearance).
Grosjean was 1.5 for
points, and Maldonado 2.2, with 3.25 for both to score points. That’s
somewhat tempting. My problem is that Maldonado is not necessarily
the driver likeliest to finish a race.
There was 3.5 for
Alonso to score. I consider this very much an outside shot, and those
odds do not tempt me [it could well happen, but there’s a case for
Toro Rosso, Red Bull, Force India, Sauber to get points too].
Other bets that sprung
out at me were:
Hamilton and Rosberg to
be top 2 at 1.5 [any order]
Decided against that.
Whilst likely, Ferrari might be in a position to challenge, and
there’s always the possibility of accident, pit stop cock up or
suchlike.
So, oddly, another
single low odds bet:
No Safety Car 1.8
[Ladbrokes]
Race start is 7am
tomorrow, I think. It’ll be interesting to see how it goes, from
the front of the grid down to McLaren.
Morris Dancer
Many thanks, as always Mr Dancer for your thought provoking commentary and suggestions.
ReplyDeleteI am going to risk my two races of successful betting with a controversial opinion. I see the podium as Hamilton, Vettel and Rosberg and I have bet accordingly, but I'm also going Rosberg for the win. The first 4 corners of the race will give him passing opportunity and he's a good price at exactly the time that he needs to attack to keep the pressure on Hamilton.
I'm all over Felipe Nasr for a top 6 finish.
No points finishes yet this season for Maldonado, who came 15th in the Australian Grand Prix and 16th in the Malaysia Grand Prix – but I think he will change that this weekend. On engine power alone, he’s driving a top 10 car. Three retirements from four starts gets me a nice price. The long straights will give him the adavntage over the Torro Rossos in the battle for the minor points.
I'm following you in on the safety car bet.
Good luck!
Misfortune robbed us both!
ReplyDeleteThat said, I would've counselled against the Nasr bet. He's a good driver but the car isn't on a par with the Williams (and is a little off the Lotus as well, it seems).
Writing the post-mortem now. Shouldn't be more than an hour, at most.