Monaco: pre-race

A plain misjudgement on my part with Vettel. The colder temperatures may not have helped, and if it had been rainier that could’ve swung it, but, then, if I’d offered a winning tip that would’ve been nice too.

Q1 saw the traditional departure of Manor Marussia. Both Saubers, whose car appears to be struggling in the tight streets [worth remembering when we reach Singapore], also exited, as did, surprisingly, Bottas. He didn’t have a car issue, except in that it wasn’t very fast.

In Q2 Alonso was first out when his engine decided to go on strike. Massa also failed to escape, as did Hulkenberg [who was outclassed by his Mexican team mate]. Button would’ve made it through, most likely, but a late yellow flag forced him to slow. Grosjean was fastest of the Q2 departures, making this the first time in 2015 he’s been out-qualified by Maldonado [who’s actually been driving pretty well, I think].

In Q3 things were very tight between the two Mercedes drivers, until Rosberg locked up badly on his final run, and Hamilton went even faster to get pole. Vettel starts 3^rd, but well adrift of the Silver Arrows on pace, with his erstwhile team mate Ricciardo alongside. Then we have Kvyat and Raikkonen, and Perez. Sainz was 8^th fastest, but starts from the pit lane. Maldonado and Verstappen round out the Q3 result.

It’s Hamilton’s first pole in Monaco, which sounds weird. Given the 90% pole to win conversion rate over the last 10 races, that’s handy for him.

Surprised how bad the Williams was. McLaren had more in it, but Alonso was screwed by reliability and Button by a yellow flag that stopped the team achieving a first Q3 appearance this year. Unusually, the Briton appeared much happier with the car than the Spaniard.

As well as having little opportunity for passing, the race’s excitement will not be increased by the predicted one stop, minimising the potential for strategic shenanigans. The weather forecast is for no rain.

Sainz starts from the pit lane due to missing a weighbridge, and Grosjean has a five place grid penalty for his gearbox being changed.

Potential bets:

Safety car

Button points

Raikkonen podium/top 6

Massa points

Lay Kvyat top 6

Kvyat not to be classified

A safety car is very likely. Not guaranteed (I don’t think we had one last year) but probably 90% or so. 1.15 is available. That’s probably marginally value. But I loathe short odds. The agony of choice…

Button starts 10^th due to the Grosjean and Sainz penalties. He’ll be behind Verstappen, Maldonado and Perez, and I think he’s got the potential to nab McLaren’s first points, though it’s not a certainty by any stretch. The 1.83 for points (Ladbrokes) seems a bit stingy, especially given McLaren’s reliability issues.

Raikkonen’s been driving very well. I think the Ferrari has the edge over Red Bull. The single stop and near impossibility of passing means he does have the potential to do well, if the cards fall his way. A top 6 finish is 1.28 (not worth it, with the risk of a crash, not necessarily his own doing). Podium is 4.5. That might be worth a shot.

Massa is only 1.83 for points. I just don’t think that’s value. In fact, if the money were there I’d recommend laying it. The Williams has been slow throughout the weekend so far.

Kvyat was swearing angrily on the radio in practice, and has been a little fiesty/aggressive/manic this year. At Monaco, that sort of nonsense causes crashes. Plus the Red Bull may go backwards in the race. A lay value of 1.88 is available for him to be top 6. Oddly, the ‘not to be classified’ odds are only 2.75. In the prior 5 races, Kvyat’s had 2 retirements [there’s also the general dodginess of the Renault engine which could cost him].

Of the above bets, none stands out as obvious value, but the Kvyat one seems most tempting.

I perused the betting markets to see what appeared. Force India to double score at 3.75 was one possibility (Perez starts 7^th and Hulkenberg 11th).

So, two bets (both Ladbrokes):

Kvyat, not to be classified, 2.75

Force India, double score 3.75

Morris Dancer