Austria: post-race analysis
Pretty good race, with
crashing, a safety car, a good helping of passing, a late duel,
although it was a little sterile at the sharp end. On the betting
front, both tips came off. Button’s car had a reliability problem,
and Alonso has a rather alarming high speed crash with Raikkonen
[fortunately both men are fine].
Rosberg enjoyed a
flying start, passed Hamilton immediately, and retained the lead
throughout, never truly coming under threat. Bottas slid back a few
places, and Ericsson jumped the start, which earnt him a penalty.
On the first lap
Raikkonen appeared to lose control, at which point Alonso’s McLaren
collided with the Ferrari, taking both cars out of the race (the
McLaren parked atop the Ferrari). The safety car came out for several
laps, and although it took a while for the wreckage to be removed
both drivers were entirely unharmed.
A few moments later
Will Stevens peeled off and parked his Manor Marussia on the
wayside due to a reliability problem.
Formation was held when
the safety car entered the pits and racing resumed.
Verstappen had gotten
ahead of Bottas at the start, but the Finn soon dispatched the
talented Dutchman, and set about hunting down Hulkenberg. The German
held him at bay for a short time, but when the Williams got past his
Force India he pitted, and the undercut worked, getting him out ahead
of Bottas when the latter driver made his stop. It didn’t last (the
Williams was just too fast) but it was the right strategic call.
There were some nice
contests on track, including Nasr and the Lotuses (Loti?), Hulkenberg
and Bottas (twice), and a little train of Perez, Maldonado, Bottas
and Hulkenberg at one point (the first two drivers out of position as
they had yet to pit).
It looked like the top
five were set in stone, but it was not so. Ferrari had a horrendously
long pit stop for Vettel, and even though he had a significant
advantage over Massa, the Brazilian passed him in the pits. Vettel
spent the last 20 laps or so closing that gap (the Ferrari was
clearly faster) but he was unable to make the pass and Massa got the 40th podium of his career.
Late on there was a
prolonged tussle for 7th between Maldonado (who drove well
again, despite twitching the car like a twelve year old after their
first coffee) and Verstappen. The Dutchman was ahead and was
defending skilfully, but the Lotus was faster and when Verstappen’s
tyres appeared to run out (he cocked up a corner, unclear if it’s
true it was the tyres or that’s a racing driver’s excuse) the
Venezuelan had him.
Grosjean, who might
have had a tilt at a top 6 finish, had to retire due to reliability
issues. Lotus need to sort that out. Their car’s fast, but you only
get points if you finish. Sainz also retired.
Force India had a nice
race, Hulkenberg holding onto 6th, and Perez climbing to
9th. I’d missed that they have a slightly updated (third
generation, apparently) Mercedes engine now, which won’t have hurt
their performance.
Ricciardo got the final
point, finishing the race on the option tyre and passing Nasr. A
slight shame for the talented Sauber driver. Kvyat seemed to spend
the whole race getting passed.
On the betting front,
hard to say whether Alonso would’ve finished without the crash.
Button’s retirement was due to reliability, but if Alonso had
finished then the relatively short odds (2.5) would’ve whittled the
profit margin to half of one stake. But, if luck plays a role I’d
sooner it be good than bad, and both came off.
Rosberg was plain
faster today. Hamilton got a 5s time penalty for crossing the white
line outside the pit exit, but even so his team mate had him beat all
day long. The gap at the top is narrower than might be thought, so
this title race is actually far from over.
Hamilton 169
Rosberg 159
Vettel 120
Vettel isn’t 100% out
of it, but if both Mercedes retired from the next two races and
Vettel won twice, he’d have a lead of just 1 point. Reliability in
Ferrari and Mercedes is very good, so that’s unlikely. To get the
title, or even another win, Ferrari needs to up the pace.
Rosberg started the
season badly, and seemed to have almost adopted the mentality of a
number two driver. Since Bahrain (where, ironically, he had a great
performance but finished only 3rd) he’s been more
competitive, winning fairly in Spain and Austria, (and fluking a
bizarre win in Monaco, but they all count). He’s won three of the
last four races.
Vettel 120
Raikkonen 72
That’s a hefty gap. I
think Raikkonen may not get his contract extended. Ferrari have been
interested in Bottas for a little while, and Hulkenberg’s Le Mans
win will hopefully help his prospects of a top seat. Right now, the
second Ferrari seat is the best one likely to be available in F1.
Mercedes 328
Ferrari 192
Williams 129
Red Bull 55
Force India 31
Lotus 29
Sauber 21
Toro Rosso 19
McLaren 4
Manor Marussia 0
I think the top three
are more or less nailed on. With a new Force India due to arrive at
the next race (a B-spec car) and Lotus having good pace, there’s a
chance Red Bull could be passed by both of those teams (although
Lotus need to sort out their reliability). I suspect Red Bull will
retain 4th spot, but it’s not a certainty by any stretch
of the imagination.
The next race is in a
fortnight, in the UK.
Morris Dancer
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