Austria: pre-qualifying
Tyres for this weekend
are supersoft and soft. Austria’s all about straight line speed, so
I imagine it’ll be very similar to Canada. Lotus in particular may
be a team to watch.
Alonso gets a 20 place
grid penalty due to replacing so much of his engine, and Ricciardo
gets a 10 place penalty.
Button has a 25 place
grid penalty. The grid has 20 cars.
In first practice
Rosberg was three-tenths ahead of Hamilton, followed by the Finns
Raikkonen and Bottas. Nasr and Kvyat were next, with Ricciardo,
Verstappen, Massa and Perez rounding out the top 10.
Second practice was led
by Vettel, who was a hundredth ahead of Rosberg. Raikkonen was
two-tenths down the road, with Maldonado just a tenth back. Hamilton
was next, but didn’t get a clean lap (on pace he would’ve been a
few tenths ahead of the field). Hulkenberg and Grosjean followed,
with Verstappen, Nasr and Perez finishing off the top 10.
Ferrari are reportedly
looking really rather racy. However, that’s been said before, only
for Mercedes to be dominant in the race. I still expect the running
order to be Mercedes-Ferrari-Williams. Lotus and Force India should
punch above their weight, with Red Bull and Toro Rosso doing poorly,
as per Canada.
Not representative of
qualifying for reasons outlined below, but in P3 Vettel was fastest,
two-hundredths up on Hamilton, who was a tenth ahead of Raikkonen.
Perez was next (on supersoft, unlike most of those around him), then
Rosberg, Massa and Bottas. Verstappen, Maldonado and Grosjean come
next.
Third practice was
disrupted by a red flag 30 minutes in, when Alonso’s McLaren
failed, again. Rain came at more or less the same time. Drivers tried
to put in qualifying simulations after that, but the track was too
wet. Most drivers did head out (mostly wet tyres, but Vettel opted
for intermediates and was quick), though Hamilton stayed in the pits.
It’s possible that
conditions will also be wet in qualifying. Could be good for Toro
Rosso, who appeared quick in the wet at the end of P3. On the other
hand, it makes trying to predict qualifying trickier than would
otherwise be the case.
Potential bets:
Lay Ricciardo Q3
Maldonado Q3
Hulkenberg Q3
Lay Hamilton pole
Lay Massa/Bottas Q3 [if
it looks like being wet]
Ricciardo’s got a lay
value of 2.8, which is rubbish.
Maldonado was a tight
1.33 to reach Q3. Given potential rain/crashing/reliability, that did
not tempt me at all.
Hulkenberg was 1.66.
For similar reasons, that’s not long enough.
I was a bit surprised
Hamilton was over evens for pole, I was expecting something more like
1.5 or less.
The potential laying of
Williams’ drivers is solely due to the prospect of rain. The
Williams suffers in the wet, and one or both could easily miss Q3 if
it’s soggy. There was very little available for either (some for
Bottas at 1.14, but it’s worth noting he’s been very good in the
wet in the past, so Massa would be the better lay). Whilst I think
there’s merit in laying them to reach Q3, the lack of money
available means I can’t tip it [I did lay them both, but there was
only a few pounds up].
So, no tip for
qualifying.
Morris Dancer
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