Austria:pre-race
The track was still
drying from the P3 showers, so if it rains in the race expect it to
stay soggy for a long time. Unfortunately, it didn’t rain again,
which could’ve put the cat amongst the pigeons.
Q1 saw the departure of
both Manor Marussias, Merhi ahead, as well as the surprising exit of
Perez (16th), the less surprising exit of Button (17th)
and the shock departure of Raikkonen (18th). It was
suggested the Finn might not have been fuelled sufficiently for his
final lap, which he aborted, but Ferrari denied there was any such
issue, or a technical problem. Doesn’t bode well for Raikkonen’s
contract extension (a decision will be made by the end of July).
In Q2 every car that
failed to escape was from a different team, which is unusual.
Maldonado was the fastest of those to leave, followed by Ericsson,
Sainz, Ricciardo (who has looked out of sorts this weekend) and
Alonso.
Q3, which featured two
German drivers (Vettel and Hulkenberg) whose team mates left in Q1,
was an amusing farce. Grosjean buggered up his final two laps by
putting his tyres on the wet stuff at the end of his penultimate lap,
which compromised his final run (he qualified 10th).
Hamilton, on pole by two-tenths having trailed Rosberg throughout,
spun and ruined his last lap. Rosberg then obligingly forgot what
corners are for and slammed on the brakes after missing a turn,
gifting his team mate a comedy pole.
The gap of
fifteen-hundreds to Vettel in 3rd is flattery for Ferrari,
the real pace gap was larger. Massa was a few tenths further back,
and Hulkenberg did extremely well to drag Force India (by rights
perhaps the fifth fastest car) up to 5th. Bottas could
only manage 6th, and was followed by Verstappen, Kvyat
(who also has a grid penalty) and Nasr. The Brazilian’s performance
was also impressive.
Alonso and Button both
have 25 place grid penalties, Kvyat has a 10 place penalty, as does
Ricciardo. The Aussie will get a 5 second penalty during his pit stop
in the race, as he cannot serve the grid penalty in full. Alonso gets
an early drive-through penalty, Button gets a 10 second stop-and-go
penalty. It’s crackers, but there we are.
Potential bets:
Raikkonen top 6
Perez points
Grosjean points/top 6
Maldonado points/top 6
Lotus/Force
India/Ferrari to double score
Raikkonen was 1.44 to
be top 6. The car’s definitely got the pace, although there’s the
potential for a mid-field collision, especially early on.
Perez was 1.83 for
points. That’s reasonably tempting. He qualified 16th,
but will start 13th due to penalties for Alonso, Ricciardo
and Kvyat (Button qualified 17th).
Maldonado is 1.53 for
points and 3.25 for top 6. Grosjean is 1.4 and 2.75 respectively. I
do think the Lotus has the pace, my concern would be its reliability.
Worth considering.
Lotus are evens to
double score. Force India are 2.37, and Ferrari are just 1.2, which
is too short given the potential for reliability issues as well as
Austria being a proper circuit with closer barriers and gravel traps
instead of acres of run-off. Given I feel Lotus has solid pace and
less solid reliability, I’d be more inclined to back one or both
drivers to be top 6 instead of to double score. Unsure about whether
the Force India bet would make more sense than backing Perez.
Perusing the markets,
the following leapt out at me:
Alonso/Button not to be
classified, 2.5
I checked races to
date, and McLaren retirements are as follows:
Australia – 1
Malaysia – 2
China – 0
Bahrain – 1
Spain – 1
Monaco – 1
Canada – 2
Based on that, I’ve
got to tip Alonso/Button not to be classified.
The other bets that I’m
still thinking about are Perez to score at 1.83, and
Maldonado/Grosjean to be top 6 at 3.25 and 2.75 respectively. Worth
noting Maldonado’s been driving well this year, although he has had
rotten luck with reliability. Of those, Perez would tempt me the
most. Last year he started 16th and finished 6th.
Hmm. Very hard to decide, so, I’ll look at it numerically.
Hamilton, Rosberg,
Vettel, Massa and Bottas should be over the hills and far away. I
also think Raikkonen will roar past Perez. That’s six of the 10
available slots over with. Then there’s Lotus (equal or perhaps
faster, although maybe unreliable) and Hulkenberg. Which leaves one
place, assuming nobody has a reliability failure/crash, and Perez can
get past the Toro Rossos and Saubers. That’s pretty tight. I do
think Perez has a good chance, but not enough to put money on it at
1.83.
So, today’s tips (all
Ladbrokes):
Alonso, not to be
classified, 2.5
Button, not to be
classified, 2.5
Having a few cars out
of place (Red Bull with penalties, and Raikkonen/Perez also) will
hopefully make the race quite entertaining. I also wonder how well
Hulkenberg will do given his fantastic starting position, and whether
the Saubers/Toro Rossos can have a good day.
Morris Dancer
Hulkenburg - refreshed from triumph at Le Mans should be free money for points barring any stupidity and I'll risk top 6 too.
ReplyDeleteI'm following you in on Alonso and Button not finishing.
I've not really had much time to think about this race so I'll probably just follow you in on most of your discarded bets to give me something to cheer on in the pub. Maldonado, Grosjean, Perez, Raikkonen and the team double-scorers all seem plausible. I'll have another quick look but I'll probably pinch most of them on fun stakes with your permission.
Ha, you don't need my permission. Both tips and musings are entirely public.
ReplyDeleteI did, briefly, consider Hulkenberg for top 6, but I'm not convinced it'll happen, and the odds were under evens. I do wonder if Ferrari will go for him now. I hope so, but previously they seemed more interested in Bottas.
Congratulations on your successful tips Mr Dancer.
ReplyDeleteAs indicated I used your discarded tips for additional entertainment.
All of them for 1 point. I ended up overall with my first loss of the campaign but only 2.5% down. A shame you didn't share my confidence in Hulkenberg.
Both Team Drivers To Score – Force India @ 11/10 WIN
Both Team Drivers To Score – Lotus @ 4/5 LOSE
Both Team Drivers To Score – Ferrari @ 1/7 LOSE
Both Team Drivers To Score – Mercedes @ 1/10 WIN
Points Finish – Romain Grosjean @ 4/11 LOSE
Points Finish – Pastor Maldonado @ 4/9 WIN
Top 6 Finish – Pastor Maldonado @ 7/4 LOSE
Top 6 Finish – Romain Grosjean @ 6/4 LOSE
Top 6 Finish – Kimi Raikkonen @ 4/9 LOSE
Points Finish – Sergio Perez @ 4/5 WIN
Top 6 Finish – Nico Hulkenberg @ 10/11 WIN
Points Finish – Nico Hulkenberg @ 2/7 WIN
Not To Complete The Race – Jenson Button @ EVS WIN
Not To Complete The Race – Fernando Alonso @ EVS WIN
Hey, Mr. M (post-race will be up very soon).
ReplyDeleteWhy only evens for Button/Alonso? They were 2.5, although the odds may've slipped.
1.83 for Hulkenberg to be top 6 was tight. It happened to come off, but either Grosjean or Raikkonen could've stopped it.
I use WH for all of my F1 which occasionally gives me odds out of line with other bookies - Ladbrokes and others in this case.It happened to work against me here and in my favour a couple of races ago.
DeleteIf I'd shopped around then I'd have got better odds and kept my winning streak.
Ah, fair enough. That's a ton of bets you put on.
Delete