Austria:pre-race

The track was still drying from the P3 showers, so if it rains in the race expect it to stay soggy for a long time. Unfortunately, it didn’t rain again, which could’ve put the cat amongst the pigeons.

Q1 saw the departure of both Manor Marussias, Merhi ahead, as well as the surprising exit of Perez (16th), the less surprising exit of Button (17th) and the shock departure of Raikkonen (18th). It was suggested the Finn might not have been fuelled sufficiently for his final lap, which he aborted, but Ferrari denied there was any such issue, or a technical problem. Doesn’t bode well for Raikkonen’s contract extension (a decision will be made by the end of July).

In Q2 every car that failed to escape was from a different team, which is unusual. Maldonado was the fastest of those to leave, followed by Ericsson, Sainz, Ricciardo (who has looked out of sorts this weekend) and Alonso.

Q3, which featured two German drivers (Vettel and Hulkenberg) whose team mates left in Q1, was an amusing farce. Grosjean buggered up his final two laps by putting his tyres on the wet stuff at the end of his penultimate lap, which compromised his final run (he qualified 10th). Hamilton, on pole by two-tenths having trailed Rosberg throughout, spun and ruined his last lap. Rosberg then obligingly forgot what corners are for and slammed on the brakes after missing a turn, gifting his team mate a comedy pole.

The gap of fifteen-hundreds to Vettel in 3rd is flattery for Ferrari, the real pace gap was larger. Massa was a few tenths further back, and Hulkenberg did extremely well to drag Force India (by rights perhaps the fifth fastest car) up to 5th. Bottas could only manage 6th, and was followed by Verstappen, Kvyat (who also has a grid penalty) and Nasr. The Brazilian’s performance was also impressive.

Alonso and Button both have 25 place grid penalties, Kvyat has a 10 place penalty, as does Ricciardo. The Aussie will get a 5 second penalty during his pit stop in the race, as he cannot serve the grid penalty in full. Alonso gets an early drive-through penalty, Button gets a 10 second stop-and-go penalty. It’s crackers, but there we are.

Potential bets:
Raikkonen top 6
Perez points
Grosjean points/top 6
Maldonado points/top 6
Lotus/Force India/Ferrari to double score

Raikkonen was 1.44 to be top 6. The car’s definitely got the pace, although there’s the potential for a mid-field collision, especially early on.

Perez was 1.83 for points. That’s reasonably tempting. He qualified 16th, but will start 13th due to penalties for Alonso, Ricciardo and Kvyat (Button qualified 17th).

Maldonado is 1.53 for points and 3.25 for top 6. Grosjean is 1.4 and 2.75 respectively. I do think the Lotus has the pace, my concern would be its reliability. Worth considering.

Lotus are evens to double score. Force India are 2.37, and Ferrari are just 1.2, which is too short given the potential for reliability issues as well as Austria being a proper circuit with closer barriers and gravel traps instead of acres of run-off. Given I feel Lotus has solid pace and less solid reliability, I’d be more inclined to back one or both drivers to be top 6 instead of to double score. Unsure about whether the Force India bet would make more sense than backing Perez.

Perusing the markets, the following leapt out at me:
Alonso/Button not to be classified, 2.5

I checked races to date, and McLaren retirements are as follows:
Australia – 1
Malaysia – 2
China – 0
Bahrain – 1
Spain – 1
Monaco – 1
Canada – 2

Based on that, I’ve got to tip Alonso/Button not to be classified.

The other bets that I’m still thinking about are Perez to score at 1.83, and Maldonado/Grosjean to be top 6 at 3.25 and 2.75 respectively. Worth noting Maldonado’s been driving well this year, although he has had rotten luck with reliability. Of those, Perez would tempt me the most. Last year he started 16th and finished 6th. Hmm. Very hard to decide, so, I’ll look at it numerically.

Hamilton, Rosberg, Vettel, Massa and Bottas should be over the hills and far away. I also think Raikkonen will roar past Perez. That’s six of the 10 available slots over with. Then there’s Lotus (equal or perhaps faster, although maybe unreliable) and Hulkenberg. Which leaves one place, assuming nobody has a reliability failure/crash, and Perez can get past the Toro Rossos and Saubers. That’s pretty tight. I do think Perez has a good chance, but not enough to put money on it at 1.83.

So, today’s tips (all Ladbrokes):
Alonso, not to be classified, 2.5
Button, not to be classified, 2.5

Having a few cars out of place (Red Bull with penalties, and Raikkonen/Perez also) will hopefully make the race quite entertaining. I also wonder how well Hulkenberg will do given his fantastic starting position, and whether the Saubers/Toro Rossos can have a good day.


Morris Dancer

Comments

  1. Hulkenburg - refreshed from triumph at Le Mans should be free money for points barring any stupidity and I'll risk top 6 too.

    I'm following you in on Alonso and Button not finishing.

    I've not really had much time to think about this race so I'll probably just follow you in on most of your discarded bets to give me something to cheer on in the pub. Maldonado, Grosjean, Perez, Raikkonen and the team double-scorers all seem plausible. I'll have another quick look but I'll probably pinch most of them on fun stakes with your permission.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ha, you don't need my permission. Both tips and musings are entirely public.

    I did, briefly, consider Hulkenberg for top 6, but I'm not convinced it'll happen, and the odds were under evens. I do wonder if Ferrari will go for him now. I hope so, but previously they seemed more interested in Bottas.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Congratulations on your successful tips Mr Dancer.
    As indicated I used your discarded tips for additional entertainment.
    All of them for 1 point. I ended up overall with my first loss of the campaign but only 2.5% down. A shame you didn't share my confidence in Hulkenberg.

    Both Team Drivers To Score – Force India @ 11/10 WIN
    Both Team Drivers To Score – Lotus @ 4/5 LOSE
    Both Team Drivers To Score – Ferrari @ 1/7 LOSE
    Both Team Drivers To Score – Mercedes @ 1/10 WIN
    Points Finish – Romain Grosjean @ 4/11 LOSE
    Points Finish – Pastor Maldonado @ 4/9 WIN
    Top 6 Finish – Pastor Maldonado @ 7/4 LOSE
    Top 6 Finish – Romain Grosjean @ 6/4 LOSE
    Top 6 Finish – Kimi Raikkonen @ 4/9 LOSE
    Points Finish – Sergio Perez @ 4/5 WIN
    Top 6 Finish – Nico Hulkenberg @ 10/11 WIN
    Points Finish – Nico Hulkenberg @ 2/7 WIN
    Not To Complete The Race – Jenson Button @ EVS WIN
    Not To Complete The Race – Fernando Alonso @ EVS WIN

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hey, Mr. M (post-race will be up very soon).

    Why only evens for Button/Alonso? They were 2.5, although the odds may've slipped.

    1.83 for Hulkenberg to be top 6 was tight. It happened to come off, but either Grosjean or Raikkonen could've stopped it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I use WH for all of my F1 which occasionally gives me odds out of line with other bookies - Ladbrokes and others in this case.It happened to work against me here and in my favour a couple of races ago.

      If I'd shopped around then I'd have got better odds and kept my winning streak.

      Delete
    2. Ah, fair enough. That's a ton of bets you put on.

      Delete

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