Canada: pre-qualifying

The tyres for this weekend are soft and supersoft. It’s possible rain will affect things, although right now a dry qualifying/race appears more probable.

The circuit is mostly straights and slow corners, so aerodynamics matter less and straight line speed is handy. Honda and Ferrari have both used some engine tokens to improve their power, though it remains it be seen just what impact the improvements will have made to performance.

In P1 Hamilton was four-tenths up on Rosberg, who was over a second ahead of Grosjean. Hulkenberg and Vettel were next, followed by Massa, Kvyat, Maldonado, Alonso and Verstappen.

The second practice session had Hamilton up on Vettel by four-tenths, with Raikkonen and Rosberg next. Maldonado, Bottas, Grosjean, Massa, Kvyat and Ricciardo round out the top 10.

P2 was disrupted by rain, which saw Hamilton introduce his front wing to the barriers in a relatively low speed crash (no damage beyond the front wing).

It was remarked in P2 that the Ferrari’s long runs were faster than the Mercedes, although McNish wisely reminded us that we don’t know what fuel loads were being run. It certainly appears that the prancing horse is in the running, on pace, for a race win, although I’d still expect them to be behind when it comes to qualifying.

At this stage, things look quite good for Lotus, who may be best of the rest after the Mercedes-Ferrari tussle for dominance. Whilst the Lotus looks fast, McNish reckoned they were a bit of a handful, which might see them qualify well but struggle a little over a race distance. During P3 Vettel lost some electrical energy (kinetic). If that happens in the race/qualifying he’ll struggle to make the top 10.

Verstappen has a 15 place grid penalty (5 for the Monaco incident and 10 for changing to engine number five).

P3 was notable for Nasr weaving to warm his tyres, losing control and hitting the barriers [bit of a schoolboy error], which brought out a red flag. A second red flag emerged when Button’s McLaren broke down late on.

Because of this, the session was about as representative of true pace as Sepp Blatter is of the average football fan. Nevertheless, Rosberg was fastest ahead of Raikkonen and Grosjean. Bottas, Perez and Kvyat were next, followed by Massa, Vettel, Sainz and Maldonado.

Bets:

Lotus drivers Q3

Force India drivers Q3

The Mercedes engine appears a tasty advantage, with only the Ferrari team itself seeming able to challenge the Mercedes dominance.

The Lotus drivers were both under 1.5. The Force India drivers, by contrast, were both 2.75, so I’ve backed both Hulkenberg and Perez at 2.75 to make Q3 [that’s with Ladbrokes].

The circuit isn’t big on aerodynamics, which is the Force India’s key weakness. Both drivers are good, and the Mercedes engine is the one to have. It’s not a certainty, but I think they both have a decent shot of making it and would be surprised if neither achieved a top 10 place.

That said, my results this year have been incredibly red, so do at your own risk.

The pre-race piece will probably be up tomorrow rather than this evening.

Morris Dancer