Canada: pre-race

A mixed bag from the tips. Both came off, which is nice. The Hulkenberg tip was good judgement, the Perez tip good fortune (if both Massa and Vettel not suffered technical trouble then it’s near certain the Mexican would’ve failed to reach Q3). On a £10 stake basis, the difference is a £7.50 profit against a £35 profit, which goes to show just how much difference luck, good or ill, makes.

The first session of qualifying was notable for technical trouble striking two leading drivers. Massa’s Williams suffered some sort of power problem, and Vettel likewise suffered a shortfall (uncertain if it was due to a similar issue as afflicted him in practice). As is traditional, both Manor Marussias exited at this stage, as did Button, who didn’t even start qualifying due to yet more technical woe.

The second session saw the predictable departure of the under-powered McLaren of Alonso, as well as the anonymous [silly crash aside] Saubers. Neither Toro Rosso managed to make Q3, perhaps unsurprising as straight line speed is not their strong point.

Q3 was less competitive than might have been the case, as Rosberg appeared to bugger his laps up and had to settle for a relatively distant 2nd to his team mate, with Hamilton getting another pole. Worth noting pole is also handy, but Canada is not Monaco and this is a racetrack, not a processional way. Raikkonen managed to achieve 3rd, but was only narrowly ahead of Bottas and the two Lotus (who locked out row three, with Grosjean ahead of Maldonado). Hulkenberg outpaced Kvyat and Ricciardo, with Perez bringing up the rear of the top 10.

Although he qualified 12th, Verstappen’s 15 grid penalty means he starts 20th and will have a 10s penalty (I believe this will be applied during one of his pit stops).

In the second practice session the Ferraris were clearly faster than the Mercedes on race runs, but the question is how much fuel the two teams had laden their cars with. Other questionable areas are whether or not the Williams can hang with the Ferrari in the race (at both the sharp end and the back of the grid), and how the Lotus will fare. On pace, Lotus should have far more points, but reliability has cost them quite a bit.

I’d expect Vettel and, to a lesser extent, Massa to cut their way through the field fairly easily.

Post-qualifying it emerged Vettel gets a 5 place grid penalty for passing Merhi under a red flag in practice (the same penalty Verstappen got for crashing into Grosjean in Monaco, incidentally). Because of Verstappen’s penalty and Button’s failure to enter qualifying, the back of the grid (I think) is:
Vettel 18th
Verstappen 19th
Button starting from the pit lane

At the sharp end, I think it’s quite hard to call. I’d be unsurprised if any of the top three ended up winning. Raikkonen or Bottas I can see on the podium. Lotus has good pace but its reliability has been shoddy, making it difficult to predict. I think Toro Rosso will struggle to advance due to its weakness on the straights (last year Vettel got stuck behind Hulkenberg’s Force India because his Red Bull could match his compatriot for pace on the twisty bits but couldn’t get near him on the straight). Massa’s near certain to get points, if his engine works (also a potential problem for Button, Vettel and others), but I’d be a little surprised if he could make top 6.

Potential bets:
Lotus double score
Force India double score
Grosjean top 6
Vettel top 6
Hulkenberg top 6
Raikkonen podium
Bottas podium

Numbers are Ladbrokes, numbers in brackets are Betfair.

Despite checking at 8.40am the day after qualifying, Ladbrokes didn’t have its double score market up, which is a bit surprising, and quite rubbish.

For top 6, Grosjean was 1.33 (1.55), Vettel 1.3 (1.69) and Hulkenberg 3.5 (3.6). Neither Vettel nor Grosjean tempt. Hulkenberg... maybe. It’s a question of how Lotus does, I think.

Raikkonen was 1.3 (1.41) for a podium, Bottas 4.5 (5). Not sure I can see the Williams doing it, though.

Decided to wait a bit and see how the markets look in a couple of hours.

After which the double-score market still wasn’t up. So, I decided to have a look through all the markets and see if anything appeared value. And there wasn’t.

So, I went for the only bet that tempted me before.

Backed Hulkenberg at 3.6 (Betfair) to be top 6, hedged at 1.8.

I think the car and driver are both solid. Maldonado could easily crash, and the Lotus has had dodgy reliability (so have Ferrari and Williams, and both also have a car each ahead of Hulkenberg). It’s also possible that Hulkenberg could just pass Maldonado off the line and retain the position through the race.

Very hard to find a bet for the race, so hopefully he’ll get up to 4th off the line, the hedge will be matched and I’ll be green either way. The race start is 7pm UK time.


Morris Dancer

Comments

  1. Good grief, what a race for my betting. Luckily I didn't look elsewhere for the double constructors bets as I would have lost horribly. And I took your possible bets from the qualifying piece and stole them to give me a bit more to cheer on - except the Vettel one who I thought was a busted flush. A shame you didn't have as much faith in your predictions as I did. Your Bottas one saved my book.
    I actually broke even based on your Bottas idea. But for Vettel getting into the top 6 I would have had a better day with me betting on top 6 for the eventual 7th and 8th finishers ... which was a bugger.

    Top 6 Finish – Nico Hulkenberg @ 3/1 LOSE
    Top 6 Finish – Romain Grosjean @ 4/11 LOSE
    Points Finish – Romain Grosjean @ 1/4 WIN
    Podium Finish – Valtteri Bottas @ 4/1 WIN
    Podium Finish – Kimi Raikkonen @ 1/4 LOSE
    Points Finish – Daniil Kvyat @ 8/11 WIN
    First Retirement Of Race – Pastor Maldonado @ 8/1 LOSE
    Top 6 Finish – Pastor Maldonado @ 5/6 LOSE
    Race Winner – Lewis Hamilton @ 1/3 WIN

    Gives me a 3.4% profit which didn't even cover my in-race snacks.

    ReplyDelete
  2. You were unlucky with Grosjean and Raikkonen.

    Yeah, I was wrong on Bottas, but that was a fluke [they all count, of course]. Lost on the race, but ahead overall on the weekend, which is a first this year. Post-race will be up this morning.

    ReplyDelete

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