Canada: pre-race
A mixed bag from the
tips. Both came off, which is nice. The Hulkenberg tip was good
judgement, the Perez tip good fortune (if both Massa and Vettel not
suffered technical trouble then it’s near certain the Mexican
would’ve failed to reach Q3). On a £10 stake basis, the difference
is a £7.50 profit against a £35 profit, which goes to show just how
much difference luck, good or ill, makes.
The first session of
qualifying was notable for technical trouble striking two leading
drivers. Massa’s Williams suffered some sort of power problem, and
Vettel likewise suffered a shortfall (uncertain if it was due to a
similar issue as afflicted him in practice). As is traditional, both
Manor Marussias exited at this stage, as did Button, who didn’t
even start qualifying due to yet more technical woe.
The second session saw
the predictable departure of the under-powered McLaren of Alonso, as
well as the anonymous [silly crash aside] Saubers. Neither Toro Rosso
managed to make Q3, perhaps unsurprising as straight line speed is
not their strong point.
Q3 was less competitive
than might have been the case, as Rosberg appeared to bugger his laps
up and had to settle for a relatively distant 2nd to his
team mate, with Hamilton getting another pole. Worth noting pole is
also handy, but Canada is not Monaco and this is a racetrack, not a
processional way. Raikkonen managed to achieve 3rd, but
was only narrowly ahead of Bottas and the two Lotus (who locked out
row three, with Grosjean ahead of Maldonado). Hulkenberg outpaced
Kvyat and Ricciardo, with Perez bringing up the rear of the top 10.
Although he qualified
12th, Verstappen’s 15 grid penalty means he starts 20th
and will have a 10s penalty (I believe this will be applied during
one of his pit stops).
In the second practice
session the Ferraris were clearly faster than the Mercedes on race
runs, but the question is how much fuel the two teams had laden their
cars with. Other questionable areas are whether or not the Williams
can hang with the Ferrari in the race (at both the sharp end and the
back of the grid), and how the Lotus will fare. On pace, Lotus should
have far more points, but reliability has cost them quite a bit.
I’d expect Vettel
and, to a lesser extent, Massa to cut their way through the field
fairly easily.
Post-qualifying it
emerged Vettel gets a 5 place grid penalty for passing Merhi under a
red flag in practice (the same penalty Verstappen got for crashing
into Grosjean in Monaco, incidentally). Because of Verstappen’s
penalty and Button’s failure to enter qualifying, the back of the
grid (I think) is:
Vettel 18th
Verstappen 19th
Button starting from
the pit lane
At the sharp end, I
think it’s quite hard to call. I’d be unsurprised if any of the
top three ended up winning. Raikkonen or Bottas I can see on the
podium. Lotus has good pace but its reliability has been shoddy,
making it difficult to predict. I think Toro Rosso will struggle to
advance due to its weakness on the straights (last year Vettel got
stuck behind Hulkenberg’s Force India because his Red Bull could
match his compatriot for pace on the twisty bits but couldn’t get
near him on the straight). Massa’s near certain to get points, if
his engine works (also a potential problem for Button, Vettel and
others), but I’d be a little surprised if he could make top 6.
Potential bets:
Lotus double score
Force India double
score
Grosjean top 6
Vettel top 6
Hulkenberg top 6
Raikkonen podium
Bottas podium
Numbers are Ladbrokes,
numbers in brackets are Betfair.
Despite checking at
8.40am the day after qualifying, Ladbrokes didn’t have its double
score market up, which is a bit surprising, and quite rubbish.
For top 6, Grosjean was
1.33 (1.55), Vettel 1.3 (1.69) and Hulkenberg 3.5 (3.6). Neither
Vettel nor Grosjean tempt. Hulkenberg... maybe. It’s a question of
how Lotus does, I think.
Raikkonen was 1.3
(1.41) for a podium, Bottas 4.5 (5). Not sure I can see the Williams
doing it, though.
Decided to wait a bit
and see how the markets look in a couple of hours.
After which the
double-score market still wasn’t up. So, I decided to have a look
through all the markets and see if anything appeared value. And there
wasn’t.
So, I went for the only
bet that tempted me before.
Backed Hulkenberg at
3.6 (Betfair) to be top 6, hedged at 1.8.
I think the car and
driver are both solid. Maldonado could easily crash, and the Lotus
has had dodgy reliability (so have Ferrari and Williams, and both
also have a car each ahead of Hulkenberg). It’s also possible that
Hulkenberg could just pass Maldonado off the line and retain the
position through the race.
Very hard to find a bet
for the race, so hopefully he’ll get up to 4th off the
line, the hedge will be matched and I’ll be green either way. The
race start is 7pm UK time.
Morris Dancer
Good grief, what a race for my betting. Luckily I didn't look elsewhere for the double constructors bets as I would have lost horribly. And I took your possible bets from the qualifying piece and stole them to give me a bit more to cheer on - except the Vettel one who I thought was a busted flush. A shame you didn't have as much faith in your predictions as I did. Your Bottas one saved my book.
ReplyDeleteI actually broke even based on your Bottas idea. But for Vettel getting into the top 6 I would have had a better day with me betting on top 6 for the eventual 7th and 8th finishers ... which was a bugger.
Top 6 Finish – Nico Hulkenberg @ 3/1 LOSE
Top 6 Finish – Romain Grosjean @ 4/11 LOSE
Points Finish – Romain Grosjean @ 1/4 WIN
Podium Finish – Valtteri Bottas @ 4/1 WIN
Podium Finish – Kimi Raikkonen @ 1/4 LOSE
Points Finish – Daniil Kvyat @ 8/11 WIN
First Retirement Of Race – Pastor Maldonado @ 8/1 LOSE
Top 6 Finish – Pastor Maldonado @ 5/6 LOSE
Race Winner – Lewis Hamilton @ 1/3 WIN
Gives me a 3.4% profit which didn't even cover my in-race snacks.
You were unlucky with Grosjean and Raikkonen.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I was wrong on Bottas, but that was a fluke [they all count, of course]. Lost on the race, but ahead overall on the weekend, which is a first this year. Post-race will be up this morning.