United Kingdom: pre-qualifying
The survey results are
in. Over 215,000 fans from 194 countries completed the exhaustive
question, which ran for a fortnight after the Monaco procession. I
was one of them, and am slightly surprised how many finished it,
given how enormous it was (took me about 30 minutes).
The findings, as
reported by the BBC, are as follows:
Around 90% want the
sport to be more competitive
A majority (60%) want
refuelling to return
Technical rules should
be relaxed for more diverse cars and technology (74%)
Tyre wars are desired
(80%)
A couple of interesting
findings there (for the record, I agree with all the above
positions). Tyre wars are unlikely in the immediate future as I think
Pirelli have the gig this season and next, and then it’ll be a
decision between them and Michelin for 2017 onwards (NB Michelin will
only do it if the wheel size is increased from 13” to 18” rims,
which would have a substantial impact on car design, including
suspension).
Refuelling is popular
with fans, but not with teams, who seem set against it (due to safety
and cost).
Technical changes are
coming, though I forget if it’s in 2016 or 2017. Essentially, the
front wing will be widened and the rear narrowed, which, it’s
hoped, will reduce the impact of dirty air unsettling the
aerodynamics of one car closely following another, allowing for
closer racing and more passing without the nonsense gimmick of DRS
(which should be banned, but I doubt it will be).
Survey
stuff: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/33351824
In other news, there
are some rule changes coming. Electronic aids and team instruction
via radio will be reduced, which should have an impact on the start.
This change is effective from the Belgian Grand Prix. We’ll see how
big an impact it has on starts. Engine performance might be one key
factor, but perhaps tyre choice will also be more significant.
Anyway, to Silverstone.
The circuit’s more about corners than the recent tracks in Canada
and Austria, although there are a few straights so power isn’t
irrelevant. I’d expect cars without a Mercedes in the back to do
better here (Red Bull and Toro Rosso especially). Force India could
be an exception as I think they’re due for a B-spec car and will
finally get some upgrades.
It’s been very hot in
Blighty over the last few days, and rain is forecast for Sunday, so
that’s well worth keeping an eye on. Chaps who have shown good rain
form include Button, Hulkenberg and Bottas.
The tyres are hard and
medium.
In P1 Rosberg was
fastest by a tiny margin ahead of Hamilton (but it was still very
impressive given the German had an early hydraulic issue and spent
most of the session having his car mended). Verstappen was third but
over a second down the road, followed closely by Raikkonen, Sainz,
Vettel, Ricciardo, Kvyat, Hulkenberg and Massa.
In P2 Rosberg was again
fastest, a third of a second ahead of Raikkonen. Vettel was very
close behind his team mate, with Hamilton only fourth (the Briton
complained about his car’s handling and aborted what should’ve
been a long run). Kvyat was four-tenths back in fifth, then came
Ricciardo, Verstappen, Hulkenberg, Sainz and Massa.
Looking promising for
Rosberg right now. The Mercedes has a massive advantage over the
field, although potential rain on Sunday could throw the cat amongst
the pigeons.
It also looks better,
as expected, for Red Bull and Toro Rosso, but we’ll have to see how
that plays out. I think Williams have been keeping their powder dry,
as is often the case. The Force India updates seem to be working, so
they also stand a chance of Q3/points.
The McLaren continues
to be as reliable as a French ferry worker.
P3 had Hamilton
quickest, half a second up on his team mate, who was a couple of
tenths up on Raikkonen. Vettel was three-tenths back, and followed by
Verstappen and Sainz. Massa was a smidgen ahead of Bottas, with Kvyat
and Maldonado rounding out the top 10.
Rosberg had a problem
with his gearbox during P3 which prevented him doing much of a
qualifying simulation run. He finally got in a last minute single
flying lap. I’m not convinced the half-second gap is reflective of
reality.
Alonso was unable to do
a qualifying run because of hydraulics failing him.
Toro Rosso looked
pretty damned tasty in P3. Lotus and Force India perhaps a little
lacklustre. Aerodynamics are mattering more than having a Mercedes in
the back.
Potential bets:
Rosberg pole [NB, came
to mind prior to P3]
Verstappen Q3
Sainz Q3
Kvyat Q3
Rosberg’s 2.75 for
pole with Ladbrokes, and 3.35 with Betfair. The latter is actually
quite tempting. It’s clearly a two horse race, Rosberg’s in with
a shot.
All the Q3 odds on
Betfair were under 1.5, which is too tight (big circuit but twisty so
getting stuck behind another car’s a serious issue, and there’s
always potential for going off). It took a while for Ladbrokes to get
their Q3 market up, but it did come up at 11.49am. Not that I was
getting aggravated waiting. Anyway, it wasn’t worth the wait, 1.33
for Kvyat and 1.2 each for the Toro Rosso chaps.
The Rosberg bet is
tempting. I went back to check if he had traffic (also causes
aerodynamic issues) and he had some at least, particularly near the
end of the lap. So, I’ve backed him for pole at 3.65, hedged at 1.8
[Betfair, obviously].
Morris Dancer
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