United Kingdom: pre-race
Not since Malaysia 2014
has a hedged bet proved better than tipping without a hedge. The 1.8
on Rosberg was matched, but he didn’t quite manage pole. So, that’s
either down a stake or up almost one stake.
The first part of
qualifying was depressingly predictable. The Manor Marussias left, as
did both McLarens. Felipe Nasr was the fifth chap to exit the stage,
which was unsurprising as the Sauber’s looked out of sorts all
weekend.
In Q2 Ericsson also
departed, so he’s just one place above his Brazilian team mate.
After some stronger performances the Lotuses failed to escape
(Grosjean 12th and Maldonado 14th). Verstappen
looked great in practice this morning, but complained constantly on
the radio in qualifying, and achieved a lacklustre 13th.
Perez was 11th.
In Q3, it was a
straight duel between the two Mercedes. Hamilton was a tenth faster
(Rosberg was quicker in both prior sessions) and neither man was able
to improve on their second run. Irksome that Rosberg got so close and
failed, but glad the hedge was matched. It was a lovely day in
England for Williams, who locked out the second row, Massa a tiny
margin ahead of Bottas. Ferrari had to make do with row three, with
Raikkonen nearly two-tenths up on Vettel.
Kvyat did well to get
7th, ahead of Sainz, with Hulkenberg and Ricciardo at the
back of the top 10.
Williams looked rather
good, and the Renault-engined Toro Rossos and Red Bulls (Verstappen
excepted) appear in better shape than the recent power-dominated
circuits of Austria and Canada. Mercedes still in a league of their
own, though Williams could be the best of the rest this time.
Key to the race is
whether or not it rains. This affects things not just in terms of
flukily timed pit-stops being helpful, but also because in the rain
downforce helps add grip, improving lap time and reducing the chances
of spearing off into walls or the gravel. Red Bull and Toro Rosso
would get a relative performance advantage in the rain, I think.
Bottas and Hulkenberg have also shown themselves capable of tasty
driving in the rain (NB keep a close eye on the Interlagos forecast
later in the year. Hulkenberg stuck it on pole, I think, in the rain,
and was vying for the win a few years later).
I checked the weather
forecast, and it seems the risk of rain has receded. I wouldn’t
rule it out entirely, but it seems pretty unlikely right now.
Potential race bets:
Lay Hamilton lead lap 1
(some dodgy starts recently)
Massa podium/winner
without top 2/3
Vettel podium
Force India double
score (1 stop thought to be optimal, but perhaps not possible for
everyone)
Only 1.4 is available
to lay Hamilton as lap 1 leader, though the back value is 1.25, so it
might close up.
Massa is 2.56 for a
podium (weird disconnect for Bottas, he’s 4.1 to be winner without
the Mercedes, but only 2.4 for a podium, when they’re likely to be
the same thing).
All four Ferrari and
Williams drivers are 3 for a podium with Betfair. Vettel’s 3.3 for
a podium with Betfair.
Force India are 2.5 to
double score. I’m not sure about that, given Hulkenberg scraped in
at the back of the top 10 and Perez didn’t reach Q3. It’s not
unrealistic, but the odds are stingy.
Of those, perhaps
Bottas to be winner without Mercedes at 4.1 appeals most, though it’s
not a dead cert bet. So, I browsed the markets to see if anything
leapt out.
The Lotus chaps (3.5
for Maldonado, 4.5 for Grosjean) not to be classified seemed a little
long. I checked and here are the stats:
Australia – 2
Austria – 1, Grosjean
Canada – 0
Monaco – 1, Maldonado
Spain – 1, Maldonado
Bahrain – 0
China – 1, Maldonado
Malaysia – 1,
Maldonado
Maldonado would seem
value, perhaps Grosjean. But I’ll wait and see what else pops up.
And nothing did. So,
potential bets are Bottas to be winner without the big two at 4.1
(not much available, though), and Maldonado/Grosjean not to be
classified at 3.5/4.5. Given Lotus’ reliability, or lack thereof,
the gravel traps, difficult corners and potential for hitting walls,
I’ve gone for the two Lotus drivers (both Ladbrokes).
Maldonado, not to be
classified, 3.5
Grosjean, not to be
classified, 4.5
Tricky picking
anything. The Williams-Ferrari fight should be interesting and I
really don’t know who’ll end up getting the lower end of the
points.
Morris Dancer
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