Belgium: pre-qualifying

Before the race weekend began it was confirmed Raikkonen will stay at Ferrari in 2016. Must say I’m quite surprised. Bottas, Hulkenberg, Grosjean are all fast and would be keen to race for the reds. However, Raikkonen has a great relationship with Vettel (they appear to have a genuine friendship which is very rare for team mates) and that will add a harmony to the team which will make things a lot easier.

The tyres are medium and soft.

In P1 Rosberg was a quarter of a second up on Hamilton, who was narrowly in front of Ricciardo. Raikkonen, Vettel and Kvyat followed, with Verstappen, Sainz, Perez and Bottas rounding out the top 10.

In P2, Rosberg was again faster than Hamilton by a clear margin (three-tenths). Ricciardo was next, half a second down the road but a fair bit ahead of Kvyat, Raikkonen and Hulkenberg. Grosjean, Ericsson, Nasr and Vettel were next up.

Whilst watching the P2 summary video I heard that the Sauber now has the 2015 Ferrari engine for the first time, which may mean Sauber could be value for reaching Q3. Something to keep an eye on. [NB the Williams weren’t really playing in practice 1 and 2, so worth bearing their pace in mind].

The second practice session was more notable for Rosberg suffering a strange incident. For no apparent reason his rear right tyre decided exploding would be an appropriate course of action. It was reminiscent of when Hamilton’s tyre exploded at the British Grand Prix [I think] in 2013. However, it’s the first such incident since Pirelli rushed changes that season to make tyres more robust, so may have just been a freak incident.

The McLarens have substantial penalties due to engines. Verstappen also has a 10 place grid penalty.

Third practice was quite different, with Hamilton half a second up on his team mate. Vettel and Raikkonen were next, with Perez impressive in 5th. Ricciardo and Kvyat follow, with Hulkenberg, Bottas and Massa rounding out the top 10.

Potential qualifying bets:
Force India Q3
Vettel top 3

The two Force India drivers were a paltry 1.34 to reach Q3. Whilst I think both stand a good chance, it’s pretty tight and I wouldn’t be surprised if Williams, Red Bull and Toro Rosso are hot on the heels of Mercedes and Ferrari.

Vettel was 1.86 on Betfair to be top 3. Hmm. Not enough to tempt.

So, no bet on qualifying.

My guess is a two by two start (Mercedes, led by Hamilton, then the second row occupied by Ferrari). After that, it could be very competitive.

It may be worth laying whoever gets pole to lead lap 1, for two reasons. Firstly, the new start procedure may mean they get swamped. Secondly, it’s happened in the past that the lead car gets passed on the straight on lap 1. Pirelli believe it will be a 2 stop race. Laying the McLarens to finish may also be wise, but that’s something to consider in the pre-race piece.


Morris Dancer

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