Belgium: pre-race
Qualifying went rather
differently to my expectations. Well, I got the top two right (not
exactly difficult this season), but Ferrari were a mile and a half
away from competitiveness.
The first session went
to script, with the Marussias exiting the stage followed (due to grid
penalties) by the McLarens. Nasr may well be disappointed to have
failed to escape this stage of qualifying.
In Q2, Raikkonen’s
car broke down with engine trouble, so he starts 14th
(assuming there’s no grid penalty, which there might well be if
parts need replacing). Verstappen, who also has a penalty, didn’t
set a time and ‘qualified’ 15th. It was very tight
ahead of them, with Hulkenberg and Kvyat just missing out, and
Ericsson the slowest man to set a time in Q2.
Q3 saw the status quo
maintained as Hamilton got pole by a day and a half and Rosberg had
to settle for 2nd. However, Bottas did well to get 3rd,
and Grosjean and Perez were surprisingly quick in 4th and
5th (the top 5 all have Mercedes engines). The Frenchman
won’t start there, though, as he has a grid penalty of five places.
Ricciardo qualified 6th, just ahead of Maldonado (one does
wonder of the potential for an immediate and massive crash). Vettel
was strangely slow in 9th. Either the Ferrari has suddenly
become rubbish or he had a serious problem, neither of which is good
news. Sainz was 10th.
There is a chance of
rain, but the forecast I looked at suggested it would be dry. It’s
hard to tell at Spa, so the best thing is to try and have a bet with
a credible chance of coming off in any condition.
Ferrari starting well
down the grid should mean they have a bit of a charge, but Vettel’s
rubbish time may reveal they’re not quite as quick here as they
ought to be.
Initial bets that
sprang to mind were:
Lay Hamilton lead lap 1
Massa top 6
Force India double
score
Maldonado to not be
classified (maybe Grosjean too)
Safety Car
1.49 was available to
lay Hamilton to lead lap 1, but the back odds were 1.36, so I think
it’s worth waiting to see if the gap closes.
Because of Grosjean’s
penalty Massa starts in the top 6, so that bet is on him holding
station. As such, 1.45 is measly.
Force India are evens
to double score. Hmm. May be worth a look as I think they’re easily
there on pace (Hulkenberg missed out on Q3 by a tiny margin after he
cocked up his lap).
Maldonado is only 2.5
not to be classified. Hmm. Grosjean’s 3.5. I copied (and updated)
the Lotus failure to be classified list I made earlier, and here it
is:
Australia – 2
Austria – 1, Grosjean
Canada – 0
Monaco – 1, Maldonado
Spain – 1, Maldonado
Bahrain – 0
China – 1, Maldonado
Malaysia – 1,
Maldonado
Britain – 2
Hungary – 0
On that basis, the
average is almost 1 per race, usually Maldonado. So 2.5 might just be
value.
Just 1.65 on the Safety
Car is not tempting.
Of the initial batch,
laying Hamilton to lead lap 1 at 1.49, backing Force India to double
score at evens, and backing Maldonado not to be classified at 2.5 are
all slightly tempting but none are eye-poppingly delightful.
A quick perusal found
Lotus to double score at 3.5. Slightly tempting also, but I don’t
trust Maldonado.
Decided against the
Force India bet. Both drivers are good, but there is the potential
for both weather and accident to foil one or both of them. Which
leaves the question of whether I have more confidence in Hamilton to
leave the handbrake on, or Maldonado to bugger things up...
So, just the one bet:
Maldonado, not to be
classified, 2.5 (Ladbrokes)
Morris Dancer
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