Italy: post-race analysis
A disappointing race
from both a spectator’s and a bettor’s perspective. Not dire,
just a bit ho-hum. Raikkonen had a horrendous start. If he’d
started as well as Vettel, who nearly passed Hamilton before the
first corner, or if Hamilton had had such a bad start it would’ve
been green. Or, to rephrase, if I were better at betting, I’d win
more often. Vettel did get 2nd but the way the numbers
stacked up that meant that particular bet was only slightly red
(however, I counted it as ‘right’ in the records on the basis a
part of a split bet came back green).
At the start the
Williams leapt ahead of Rosberg and Raikkonen. The Finn had the worst
start I think I’ve seen (without crash or technical woe), dropping
from 2nd to 20th (last). Perez also managed to
pass Rosberg, although the German soon passed the Mexican to reclaim
the position.
Neither Lotus lasted
through lap 1. Maldonado retired with a broken floor. Unsure of
Grosjean’s woe, I think it was a technical failure. More bad news
for the beleaguered team, and a far cry from the Belgian podium they
enjoyed.
Raikkonen soon
dispatched the backmarkers and set about climbing through the field.
Interestingly, Ericsson’s Sauber was tricky to catch (at other
power circuits that may be a car to watch for points).
The undercut worked
splendidly for Rosberg, who leapfrogged both Williams. Once Raikkonen
finally pitted, Rosberg started hunting down Vettel.
Alas, it was not to be. Rosberg’s car burst into flames and he was forced to retire, just as he was about to get within a second of Vettel. I suspect he would’ve passed the Ferrari, but we’ll never know.
Hamilton, meanwhile,
spent most of the race cruising about, filling in a crossword and
completing his tax returns. A few laps from the end he was suddenly
told not to ask questions and to start driving very quickly. The
rumour moments after the race was that they needed a 25 second gap in
case they got a 25s time penalty for failing to implement minimum
tyre pressures (a new rule after the tyre woe at Spa last race). He
finished 25.042s ahead of Vettel. In 2014, Ricciardo was disqualified
from Australia (he finished 2nd) for a technical
infringement (breaking the fuel-flow limits).
Bottas was very very
close to Massa at the end, but the wily Brazilian held back the Finn
to claim his first (I think) podium of the year. Lots of juicy points
for Williams, after a few tricky races.
After being 20th,
Raikkonen did well to get 5th. That also means Ferrari top
scored (so, if I’d gone for that instead of the winner each way
bets, the race would’ve been green).
Force India also had
another strong race. Perez finished 6th, and Hulkenberg
7th. That said, the Mexican was a cut above his team mate
today, with the German struggling on tyres at times (but still doing
well to keep his place). With both Lotuses failing to finish this
also means the team returns to 5th in the title race.
After starting at the
back, Ricciardo’s 8th and Kvyat’s 10th will
be a small consolation for Red Bull, perhaps especially given Monza
was never going to be a strong circuit for them.
Last but not least,
Ericsson finished 9th, after qualifying in that position
and subsequently being demoted 3 places for impeding Hulkenberg. A
good solid weekend by the Swede, outpacing his team mate on Saturday
and Sunday and picking up a few more points to provide a bit of a
cushion to McLaren.
Speaking of them,
Alonso had to retire as his car broke. Bloody dire season, and it
continues. The car’s reportedly 160-180bhp off the Mercedes. And
it’s unreliable.
The Toro Rossos were
11th and 12th, Sainz ahead, with Nasr unlucky
in 13th.
After the race Hamilton
(and, reportedly, the Ferraris) was under investigation by the
stewards for reportedly failing to have correctly pressurised tyres.
We’ll see if anything happens there.
Otherwise, a lovely day
for Hamilton, decent for Ferrari and very nice for Williams and Force
India, both of whom bolster their positions in the Constructors’
title race.
Force India are now on
63 points, with Lotus on 50. Toro Rosso are on 35, and Sauber on 25.
Next up, in a
fortnight, is Singapore. Japan follows just a week later.
If Hamilton (or others)
gets a penalty, I’ll add a comment to this piece to that effect, as
it would substantially alter the green/red situation.
Whilst it would be very
nice, assuming Vettel wins, for the balance sheet, the avalanche of
qualifying penalties and having a race decided on a technicality is
perhaps not the best image for the sport.
Morris Dancer
A very profitable day! Paid for our Gib Music Festival tickets this weekend.
ReplyDeleteNot for the food and drinks tent though - will need a second mortgage for that :(
I didn't go for the safety car as I'm still not sure how Mr Hill treats the VSC for betting purposes. So (all WH):
Points Finish – Daniil Kvyat @ 17/20 WIN
Podium Finish – Felipe Massa @ 9/2 WIN
Race Winner – Kimi Raikkonen EW @ 8/1 LOSE
Race Winner – Sebastian Vettel EW @ 6/1 WIN
...gives me a 64% profit. Woohoo!
Little surprised Massa's odds were relatively short. Still, a good bet to have.
ReplyDeleteBit disappointing for me. But, that's the way things go.