Italy: pre-race

Qualifying was half as expected. Hamilton got pole for the seventh race in a row (one off of Senna’s record), but Rosberg had to have his upgraded engine replaced with an older one, which has both less power and far more mileage (it’s suggested his new engine was showing signs of failing if it ran into the race). This helps explain why Rosberg finished behind both Ferraris.

There are many penalties and the odd investigation, which may make sorting out the grid something of a lengthy affair.

In Q1 a few cars struggled to set a time. Ricciardo just about squeezed in a flying lap, but Verstappen could only manage a few sectors. Even doing that was a bit hairy, as his car’s bodywork wasn’t in place properly and most of the rear flew away during the lap. So, Verstappen was officially last, with both Marussias and both McLarens also leaving at this stage, as expected.

Q1 also saw Ericsson blatantly impede Hulkenberg, so we’ll see if the Swede gets a penalty.

Ricciardo did not run at all in Q2 (it was only due to a very rapid engine change that he made Q1), and Kvyat also got knocked out at this stage. Maldonado, Nasr and Sainz failed to progress.

In Q3 it was plain sailing for Hamilton, but, surprisingly, Raikkonen was just behind him, half a second ahead of Vettel (who shares the second row with Rosberg). Massa was two-tenths up on his team mate, with row three entirely Williams. Perez was a solid 7th, a few tenths up on Grosjean. After a fairly slow first lap, Hulkenberg lost power and was unable to run any further. It’s unclear if he’ll get a penalty. Despite that, he starts ahead (so it seems) of Ericsson, both of those chaps may get penalties.

So, there are definite penalties for Ricciardo, Kvyat, Verstappen, Sainz, Button and Alonso, and possible penalties for Ericsson and Hulkenberg.

After some waiting (for the markets to get going) it emerged that Ericsson has been slapped with a three place grid penalty for impeding Hulkenberg.


Possible bets:
Lay Hamilton lead lap 1
Ferrari top score
Ferrari double podium
Perez top 6
Safety car
Lotus double score
Lay Ricciardo points
Lay Kvyat points

Hamilton has a lay value to lead lap 1 of 1.5. That may be worthwhile, especially given the Ferraris could co-operate or, at least, will be very keen not to get in one another’s way.

Ferrari are 4.5 to top score. Hmm. There are two ways the Prancing Horse could [likely] do so. The first is to have both cars finish, with one car winning. The premium on winning means 1st and 4th gets more points than 2nd and 3rd. Then there’s one of the Silver Arrows failing to finish (perhaps Rosberg, which his high mileage engine). If the reds get ahead off the start, which is a credible possibility, it is realistic to think they could top score. On the other hand, Vettel’s 8 and Raikkonen 10 to win, with Rosberg 8.5 not to be classified, so that might be a more prudent approach (if Hamilton fails to be classified, then it’s likely Vettel or Raikkonen will win, though not certain). Hmm.

Ferrari were just 3 for a double podium finish. Not tempted by that. Credible, but if that happens I suspect better bets are available.

Perez was barely over evens for a top 6 finish, which seems too tight to me.

A safety car was just 1.66. Could happen, but bit short for me.

Lotus, I think, have the pace and both cars start in the top 10. The problem is reliability (as much technical as Maldonado’s dodgems approach to driving). The odds are a mere 2.1, and given the potential for crashing and car failure, that doesn’t tempt me.

Ricciardo and Kvyat had lay odds of just over 3, which is too long to tempt (given potential attrition ahead of them).

So, of those the laying of Hamilton to lead lap 1 at 1.5 and Vettel/Raikkonen to win each way (top 2, ¼ odds, or hedged at slightly longer odds but just for the win with Betfair) were the most appealing. Annoyingly, Vettel’s odds had shortened a little. Anyway, I backed both, splitting a single stake so it counts as one bet.

Tips:
Lay Hamilton lead lap 1, 1.5 [Betfair]

Vettel to win 7 each way, Raikkonen to win 10 each way [Ladbrokes, using one split stake, so it’s a single bet/tip]

Let’s hope Hamilton leaves the handbrake on at the start.


Morris Dancer

Comments

  1. Good morning Mr Dancer.

    Firstly my apologies for being absent from these pages for a few races. Work and other forms of real life have interfered with with more pleasant things in life.
    Many thanks again for your tips.
    Williams have been good here - 3rd and 4th last year and the car is suited for Italy. With Massa being a better driver than Bottas I'm hoping for a podium there. I was already planning Vettel each way but I'll follow you in on Raikkonen too. That looks reasonable. The problem is that with Hamilton too there just aren't enough places on the podium for all of them :)

    I had Kyvat down for a top 6 before qualifying so I'm not convinced by laying him. Points, I think.

    I'll probably have a bite at the safety car. Could you clarify, please, if this virtual safety car thingy counts?

    The new beta William Hill site is not nice.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Np, glad to have someone back commenting :)

    Hope you backed Massa for a podium. I imagine the odds would've been pretty good. Kvyat also got points [once again, you're doing better than me :p ].

    The VSC does not count as a safety car with Betfair (I think), but I'm not sure about Ladbrokes.

    The new Ladbrokes site is also pants.

    ReplyDelete

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