Singapore: pre-race
Qualifying was green,
which is nice. Couldn’t quite believe that the Mercedes were quite
so (relatively) slow. Some wags are claiming it’s because they’re
having to use the right pressure, but giving the weaker performances
of all teams with the Mercedes engine, I reckon that’s the cause.
In Q1 we said goodbye
to the Manors (including Rossi, who made his debut, replacing Merhi),
Maldonado and both Saubers.
Q2 was competitive but
the final run, which might have seen Alonso scrape into the final
session for the first time this year, was aborted when Sainz collided
with the barriers and debris was strewn across the track towards the
end. As a result, both Force Indias, both McLarens and Sainz departed
at this stage.
Q3 had a rather
different script. Mercedes’ pace struggle was genuine, and it soon
became apparent the battle for pole would be between Red Bull and
Ferrari (or, Ricciardo and Vettel, erstwhile team mates). Vettel was
never truly troubled and ended up partying like it was 2011, claiming
the first (dry) Ferrari pole for five years by more than half a
second ahead of the Aussie. Raikkonen got 3rd, and will
line up next to Kvyat.
And whence the
all-conquering Mercedes? The Silver Arrows fell short, and must make
do with the third row.
Williams had a so-so
result, with Bottas 7th and Massa 9th,
Verstappen between them and Grosjean bringing up the rear.
Incidentally, it’s
been confirmed the terrible Monza start was entirely down to
Raikkonen buggering it up. He’s been practising to try and prevent
a recurrence.
Overtaking around
Singapore is nigh on impossible, but with 2 or possibly 3 stops there
may be potential for cunning (or daft) strategic decisions to make
the difference. A safety car is highly likely but the odds are
atrocious. That said, its potential arrival is something all teams
will be very aware of.
Bets that came to mind:
Ferrari top score
Red Bull top score
Kvyat podium
Alonso points
Maldonado not to be
classified
Bottas top 6
In the last 7 races,
pole has delivered victory 5 times. That would make Ferrari favourite
to top score, but if Raikkonen screws up the start then that would
become almost impossible (very hard to pass at the circuit). Of
course, there’s always the potential for Vettel, Ricciardo or Kvyat
to have bad or good starts too.
Ferrari are just 1.33
to top score. That surprises me. Red Bull are 3.5. If Ricciardo
starts well or Raikkonen has a shocker, that could instantly turn
things around. That’s intriguing. Could perhaps marry that to
laying Raikkonen at 1.4 to be top 6.
Kvyat at 2.37 for a
podium is tight. Not tempted.
Alonso is evens for
points. I think he has a good chance, but the car’s reliability is
a cause for concern.
Maldonado is 1.83 not
to be classified. Hmm.
Bottas is 2.5 for a top
6 finish. Again, too short to tempt. It’s almost as if the bookie
doesn’t want me to win…
Happened to see
Williams are 2.1 to have a double points finish, which seems a bit
generous.
Annoyingly, the race
seems poised to be quite interesting, but finding value is proving
difficult. There’s a sea of reasonable possibilities but all the
odds are depressingly short. Humbug!
Rossi is 3.4 not to be
classified. Hmm.
I slept on this, and
came to the conclusion I don’t know what to bet on. By process of
elimination (considering everything else worse value) I finally came
up with a bet, though I must stress I’m not brimming with
confidence. It’s one of those situations where I might sit it out
if I hadn’t offered a tip on every race since 2009.
Tips:
Merhi, not to be
classified, 3.75 [NB Ladbrokes and not counting this if it gets made
void, as I suspect it will]
Red Bull, top score,
3.5 [Ladbrokes]
I think the grid is
intriguingly poised, but am rather less confident on the betting
front. I also think it may be worth laying Rosberg to finish in the top 6, but there isn't enough liquidity there for me to tip it. Was very tempted by the Williams to double score bet, but decided against it (potential for bad starts, strategic cock-ups or accident is doubled because both cars need a good start and finish).
Although qualifying was
at 2pm, it’s my understanding the race start is at the usual 1pm.
Morris Dancer
Comments
Post a Comment