Singapore: pre-race

Qualifying was green, which is nice. Couldn’t quite believe that the Mercedes were quite so (relatively) slow. Some wags are claiming it’s because they’re having to use the right pressure, but giving the weaker performances of all teams with the Mercedes engine, I reckon that’s the cause.

In Q1 we said goodbye to the Manors (including Rossi, who made his debut, replacing Merhi), Maldonado and both Saubers.

Q2 was competitive but the final run, which might have seen Alonso scrape into the final session for the first time this year, was aborted when Sainz collided with the barriers and debris was strewn across the track towards the end. As a result, both Force Indias, both McLarens and Sainz departed at this stage.

Q3 had a rather different script. Mercedes’ pace struggle was genuine, and it soon became apparent the battle for pole would be between Red Bull and Ferrari (or, Ricciardo and Vettel, erstwhile team mates). Vettel was never truly troubled and ended up partying like it was 2011, claiming the first (dry) Ferrari pole for five years by more than half a second ahead of the Aussie. Raikkonen got 3rd, and will line up next to Kvyat.

And whence the all-conquering Mercedes? The Silver Arrows fell short, and must make do with the third row.

Williams had a so-so result, with Bottas 7th and Massa 9th, Verstappen between them and Grosjean bringing up the rear.

Incidentally, it’s been confirmed the terrible Monza start was entirely down to Raikkonen buggering it up. He’s been practising to try and prevent a recurrence.

Overtaking around Singapore is nigh on impossible, but with 2 or possibly 3 stops there may be potential for cunning (or daft) strategic decisions to make the difference. A safety car is highly likely but the odds are atrocious. That said, its potential arrival is something all teams will be very aware of.

Bets that came to mind:
Ferrari top score
Red Bull top score
Kvyat podium
Alonso points
Maldonado not to be classified
Bottas top 6

In the last 7 races, pole has delivered victory 5 times. That would make Ferrari favourite to top score, but if Raikkonen screws up the start then that would become almost impossible (very hard to pass at the circuit). Of course, there’s always the potential for Vettel, Ricciardo or Kvyat to have bad or good starts too.

Ferrari are just 1.33 to top score. That surprises me. Red Bull are 3.5. If Ricciardo starts well or Raikkonen has a shocker, that could instantly turn things around. That’s intriguing. Could perhaps marry that to laying Raikkonen at 1.4 to be top 6.

Kvyat at 2.37 for a podium is tight. Not tempted.

Alonso is evens for points. I think he has a good chance, but the car’s reliability is a cause for concern.

Maldonado is 1.83 not to be classified. Hmm.

Bottas is 2.5 for a top 6 finish. Again, too short to tempt. It’s almost as if the bookie doesn’t want me to win…

Happened to see Williams are 2.1 to have a double points finish, which seems a bit generous.

Annoyingly, the race seems poised to be quite interesting, but finding value is proving difficult. There’s a sea of reasonable possibilities but all the odds are depressingly short. Humbug!

Rossi is 3.4 not to be classified. Hmm.

I slept on this, and came to the conclusion I don’t know what to bet on. By process of elimination (considering everything else worse value) I finally came up with a bet, though I must stress I’m not brimming with confidence. It’s one of those situations where I might sit it out if I hadn’t offered a tip on every race since 2009.

Tips:
Merhi, not to be classified, 3.75 [NB Ladbrokes and not counting this if it gets made void, as I suspect it will]
Red Bull, top score, 3.5 [Ladbrokes]

I think the grid is intriguingly poised, but am rather less confident on the betting front. I also think it may be worth laying Rosberg to finish in the top 6, but there isn't enough liquidity there for me to tip it. Was very tempted by the Williams to double score bet, but decided against it (potential for bad starts, strategic cock-ups or accident is doubled because both cars need a good start and finish).

Although qualifying was at 2pm, it’s my understanding the race start is at the usual 1pm.


Morris Dancer

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