Australia: pre-race
Qualifying wasn’t
merely a wet squib, the third session was damper than a dolphin’s
codpiece. The first two sessions worked essentially as normal, and
the latter half of Q3 had no interest whatsoever. What should have
been a climax was more of a coma. Universal contempt leads me to hope
it’ll revert to the old system for the next race, but we shall see.
In Q1 there were a few
surprises. Wehrlein’s been much hyped but was outqualified by his
team mate, Haryanto (Haryanto will start last, however, due to a grid
penalty). Kvyat got caught out and was a surprise departure in 18th
(both Haas drivers are between Kvyat and the Manors. Grosjean was on
a fast lap but the instant cut-off meant he didn’t get to complete
it). The Saubers also exited at this stage.
In Q2, it was generally
a case of by the teams, with both Force Indias, McLarens and Renaults
leaving (the exception being Bottas in 11th, who seems to
have had a scruffy lap). Whilst not stellar for the McLarens, it’s
a lot better than last year and they do have the hope of battling for
points.
Q3 was tedious, an
unwitting self-parody of F1’s decision-makers and their meddling
idiocy. After an initial run, everyone except the two Mercedes didn’t
bother with a second lap, and even the two Silver Arrows came in well
before the end. There was absolutely no excitement or interest
towards the end of qualifying.
Anyway. The ‘shake
things up’ format change had Hamilton on pole, Rosberg second, then
Vettel and Raikkonen. My gast was not flabbered.
After Raikkonen was a
very impressive Verstappen (the Toro Rosso, despite having last
year’s Ferrari engine, is looking rather racey), Massa, Sainz and
Ricciardo.
Perez and Hulkenberg
round out the top 10, although both were eliminated in Q2.
The weather forecast is
for it to be dry.
Without looking at
betting markets, and considering the possibility of changes from the
grid, the first things that sprung to mind were:
Perez/Hulkenberg to be
top 6
Alonso points
Lay Kvyat points
Hulkenberg and Perez
are both 3.25 to be top 6. That tempts me. I can see everyone ahead
of them (top four excepted) going backwards.
Alonso was just 2.1 for
points. Bit tight.
Kvyat’s lay odds were
4.1 (though the market hadn’t got going), back odds about 1.7-1.8.
Not worth it, either way.
I also saw that
Raikkonen was 4 for a podium. Given his car and the other three being
very tight (1.3 or under) that did make me wonder. A breakdown or
accident or even a rubbish start [by one of the others] could be
enough for the Finn.
Vettel to lead lap 1 at
13 caught my eye. He had a comparable start last year, and at such
odds only twice a year is needed for value. He’s on the clean side
of the track. That said, it relies on Hamilton starting badly and
being unable to recover the situation. But then, that’s why it’s
13 and not 3.
Alonso has a good
chance of points, but there’s still a question mark over
reliability. Decided against the Vettel bet, as it’s essentially
guesswork rather than a reasoned prediction.
So, here’s the tip:
Hulkenberg and Perez to
be top 6, at 3.25 each (Ladbrokes). I split one stake equally, so
this counts as one bet.
Let’s hope it’s
green, and the race is rather better than the qualifying. The UK
start time is a displeasing 5am.
Morris Dancer
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