Pre-season F1 2016 predictions and rambling

Just a few weeks remain until we go to Oz and the new season begins. But what’s changed? Technical rules are similar (wider front wings, narrower rear rings, to try and decrease the aerodynamic disruption of closely following another car, thereby to increase overtaking opportunities), qualifying will change despite much grumbling, a few teams have new driver line-ups, Azerbaijan is added to the calendar, and the Haas team joins the grid.

Qualifying changes:

Contrary to earlier plans for a mid-season introduction, qualifying is set to be changed right from the off.

There will still be three sessions with cars eliminated (I think it’ll be 7-7-8) but this time the slowest driver will be knocked out every 90 seconds.

Even if a driver is on a hot lap, they’ll be eliminated, unless they’re the final elimination from a session when, as now, those on a hot lap when the chequered flag is waved will be able to complete it.

What happens if a driver gets blocked on a final chance to escape qualifying is unclear. It also may lead to the end of Q3 being rather tedious, compared to recent years.

I think the changes may increase (especially to reach Q3) the value of hedging bets.

Driver changes:

There have been surprisingly few of these, and none at the top teams. However, three have changed both drivers [well, two plus the new Haas team].

Renault lost Grosjean to Haas (due to uncertainty over the takeover of Lotus), and Maldonado due to his funding not coming through (the lively Venezuelan wishes to return to the grid next year). Instead, talented Briton Jolyon Palmer and ex-McLaren driver Kevin Magnussen will drive for the returned Renault.

As mentioned, Haas starts its first F1 season in the enviable position of having bagged a top driver. Grosjean’s a very swift chap, and having him on-board will help the fledgling team a lot. They also have Mexican eyebrow-enthusiast Esteban Gutierrez. Gutierrez had a year with Sauber in 2014, I think. He didn’t set the world alight with pace, but wasn’t reckless either.

Manor has also changed both drivers. Pascal Wehrlein is probably the de facto number one. The German driver tested for two teams last year (Force India and Mercedes, after a Silver Arrow driver was mildly ill, I think) and is reportedly very impressive. The team also has the sport’s first Indonesian driver, Rio Haryanto.

Testing mood music:

NB ignore headline times. The size of the fuel tanks means the fuel effect can alter a lap time by seconds. Variable tyres and weather conditions can make even more difference, as can fuel mixture to the engine (there are effectively go-slow and overtake modes, depending on available fuel).

Test 1:

Mercedes had rock solid reliability, to the extent they had to change their programme. To avoid fatiguing either driver, they split the last two (of four) days into two half-days for each driver, rather than having one driver in the car all day. Pace is hard to determine, but it’d be a surprise if they weren’t serial race-winners again and the car’s immensely reliable already.

Ferrari’s drivers were both positive about it, though they’ll only know if the gap’s been closed, or narrowed, when it’s raced in anger. There was a reliability issue (fuel pick-up, I think) which meant Vettel’s last session was slightly curtailed and Raikkonen lost some time the following day. May just be a teething problem.

I think Williams claim to have resolved their problem (not enough downforce, so they’re superfast on straights and a bit poor in twisty bits). We’ll see. Force India’s car is an evolution on last year. The team explained the modest improvements by citing the 2017 regulation changes, and it not making sense for them to spend resources make huge alterations to the car when they’d only have to change most of it next year.

Red Bull have a Renault engine badged as Tag Heuer. So, don’t expect them to be on the podium all the time. On street circuits they may do better. Renault itself (formerly Lotus) take over a cash-strapped team which had lacked development for a couple of years. The team should be in the midfield this year, but they aspire to victories.

Toro Rosso, weirdly, have a 2015 Ferrari engine. It’ll be interesting to see how they do (and perhaps entertaining, if they show up their big sister team). Sainz and Verstappen are talented chaps, and that’s eminently possible.

If I were Sauber, I’d be worried. Nasr and Ericsson are competent drivers, and the Ferrari engine may be (relatively) improved on last year, or not, but competition at the back end of the grid seems like it might hot up. Limited budgets and the short shelf-life of the regulations makes me suspect development will be restricted this year.

McLaren has made progress. How much? Not enough to be competitive at every circuit. The car reportedly looks good in the tight sections, but it’s still too slow on straights. Reliability appears improved, although a niggling water pressure problem robbed Alonso of hours on-track. At street circuits, the car might be a podium contender. At Monza, I think not.

Manor and Haas, the two teams that might be expected to be back markers, had solid testing. Reliability has improved for Manor, and Haas had a decent first test (Grosjean’s front wing fell off, but that’s not the first time such a thing has happened). Good engines and parts from other teams (Williams and Ferrari, respectively) should help them climb up the order.

Overall reliability was significantly better than last year.

Test 2: Test Harder

For reasons explained below, I couldn't give as much attention to this test, so the notes are far more concise.

The mood music suggests the Ferrari is still behind the Mercedes, but by a narrower margin. The de facto number one status of Vettel means he may have a realistic opportunity to challenge for the title this year (although, were this to be the case, Mercedes may resort to team orders). The Williams and Force India look pretty good.

Haas suffered some reliability issues, including a finickity brake-by-wire problem (which can increase cornering speed, but also decrease the number of wheels attached to the car). McLaren do seem a little improved, but I’m sticking with my Test 1 hypothesis that it’ll be rubbish at places like Monza, but fairly racy at street circuits.

Mercedes suffered a transmission problem during the second test. I think that’s the only problem during the entire pre-season testing period. The car is phenomenally reliable, or appears to be, at least. Do not count on breakdowns leading to non-Mercedes winners.

Morris Dancer’s expert predictions:

Sadly, I think we’re in for another Mercedes-dominant year. Unless Vettel’s Ferrari is up to scratch, and the gap was pretty big last year, it’s hard to see anyone else getting close.

In happier news, the McLaren appears to be less rubbish than last year, but still lacks power on straights. However, in twisty bits it appears (again, only had testing so can’t be sure) to be rather good. So, street circuits pave the way to McLaren glory. Expect the race in Australia to flatter them a little. At Monaco, it should be good. At Monza, rather less so.

Haas will hit the ground running. They’ve got a lot of parts from Ferrari, spent last year doing aero work that would’ve exceeded limits had they actually been on the grid, and have a great driver in Grosjean. I expect them to get points, perhaps at a quarter to a third of the races. Perhaps bullish, but that’s my feeling.

Manor will improve. Ok, last year was one of the worst I can remember for a backmarker team so improvement isn’t difficult, but they now have a Mercedes engine, bits and pieces from Williams and it sounds like Wehrlein, although a newcomer, might be quite fast. Points would not surprise me, although I think Haas will have their measure (and I’d be nervous if I were Sauber).

Also, the first four races this year have been rejigged, with Malaysia shunted back and Russia brought forward. The first fly-away four are: Australia, Bahrain, China and Russia. I expect Australia and Russia to have broadly similar results (Bahrain and China are a bit faster, from memory), and may favour the likes of Red Bull/McLaren at the expense of Williams/Force India [in relative terms].

Incidentally, I have a comedy-fantasy coming out on 31 March. The Adventures of Sir Edric (under the pen name Thaddeus White) will initially be available as a limited edition hardback and e-book, with paperback to follow. Do give it a look, as it means mirth for you and money for me, which will enable me to buy important goods and services, such as food and shelter. [If anyone reading this happens to be a blogger/reviewer and would like an ARC, do leave a comment or contact me on Twitter @MorrisF1].

Morris Dancer