Azerbaijan: pre-race 2016
Well,
qualifying was rather interesting. My prediction of Hamilton being
dominant was utterly wrong, but then, betting’s always easier when
you know the result.
In
Q1 the Renaults were dire, coming last, with Ericsson directly ahead
of them. Next was Button, disappointingly (he may have had traffic
issues but the McLaren still isn’t great). The two Manors, in a
relatively good position, were ahead, with Haryanto just beating his
much-fancied team mate Wehrlein.
In
Q2 we lost both Haas (Grosjean 11th,
Gutierrrez 15th).
Nasr was slowest in this session, with Spaniards Sainz and Alonso
13th
and 14th
respectively. Hulkenberg should’ve qualified easily, but was only
12th.
His fast lap was screwed up when he made a mistake, and I believe his
second run was compromised by yellow flags. There were minor handbags
over the radio with his team. A shame, as Force India is very tasty
on this track.
Q3
was rather intriguing. Hamilton was out ahead of Rosberg and both
initially did slow warm-up laps, as is their wont. Then Hamilton, who
had locked up a few times, drove into a wall and broke his
suspension, bringing out a red flag. Rosberg, by this time, had passed Hamilton (when the
Briton had locked up earlier and gone exploring run-off), and
Hamilton was 9th
(Verstappen had yet to set a time). Perez was 2nd,
then Vettel 3rd
(the Mexican, alas, has a five place grid penalty for a gearbox
change due to a crash in practice).
However,
though a red flag emerged there was a final opportunity for all save
Hamilton to try and set a better time. Rosberg, with a stonking
margin over Perez, decided to relax in the pits instead.
Bottas
tried to pass Verstappen, which buggered up both their laps and led
to the Dutchman being quite irate on the radio. Ricciardo and Vettel
set identical times, but as the Aussie set his earlier he gets to go
ahead (Perez remained 2nd
but starts 7th
due to the penalty). Raikkonen and Massa are next, followed by Kvyat,
Bottas, Verstappen and Hamilton.
At
the time of writing it’s unclear if Hamilton will be allowed to
change any of his Q2 qualifying tyres for the race start. He probably
wants to, as they’ve been flat-spotted and it’s a probable
one-stop strategy for the race.
I’m
also going to keep my eyes open for penalties for others for blocking
which could shake things up.
Slightly
odd circuit. Lots of it is tight and twisty and tedious, as I
expected, but the straight is very open and there could be a lot of
passing there. I also expect many crashes.
According
to commentary the 2nd
place grid slot has the inside line going into the first corner, so
Ricciardo for leading lap 1 may be a bet worth taking, although the
line is at the end of an enormous straight which will definitely suit
the Mercedes engine over the Renault.
Initial
bets that sprang to mind:
Hamilton
podium
Low
number of classified finishers
Safety
Car
Hulkenberg
points
Perez
top 6
Ricciardo
lead lap 1
Raikkonen/Vettel
not to be classified
Manors
for a point
Hamilton
is 1.28 for a podium. Hmm. No. Likely to happen. But not that likely.
There’s
1.57 on Ladbrokes for under 17.5 classified finishers. Despite the
short odds I think that’s value. There are reliability question
marks, especially over the Ferraris, and the circuit is phenomenally
tight in places. Only five retirements are needed for this to come
off and only 10/22 GP2 drivers finished.
Safety
Car is 1.11. Now, I’m not sure about this. It’s very likely
there’ll be one, but if there’s a red flag that might happen
before the safety car is deployed. That’s my only concern (that and
a burning hatred of such short odds). I think it’s value but that
measly 1.11 is too short to tempt me.
Hulkenberg
is 1.4 for points. I’m very confident he has the pace, but the
potential for crashing does put me off a bit.
Perez
is 1.61 to be top 6. Like Kylie Minogue, short, but tempting. He’s
also 6 for a podium, which is also of interest.
Ricciardo
is 4.5 to lead lap 1. Interesting. I think he has a good shot at the
first corner but my concerns would be Vettel can also have lightning
starts, and the Red Bull may not be able to hold off the cars behind
(which are faster in a straight line) to the line. Vettel is 5.5 to
lead lap 1.
Raikkonen
is 4.5 and Vettel 5.5 not to be classified. I’m a bit conflicted on
this as I think both are value (both had KERS issues in practice and
Raikkonen had power loss in P3, not to mention the narrow circuit)
but I’m also aware this has been a bit of a go-to bet for me and I
don’t want to just do things on auto-pilot (as well as having a
knack for picking only races when they finish to back this).
The
Manors are only 13 and 15 for points. Given that requires them to
finish and for many others to retire, it seems a bit tight-fisted.
So,
few finishers, Perez and the Ferraris to fail are all tempting. A
quick perusal of the markets didn’t throw up anything else of great
interest.
Tips:
Number
of classified finishers under 17.5, at 1.57, Ladbrokes
Perez
podium, 6, Ladbrokes (I would’ve preferred a back-and-hedge on
Betfair but the odds were just 4.5)
Vettel/Raikkonen,
not to be classified, 5.5/4.5 respectively, Ladbrokes (single stake
split in half, counts as one tip)
Three
tips is more than usual, and it’s worth noting the last time I
offered three they all, er, failed. But there’s plenty of
opportunity for crashing in Baku, the more the better.
Race
start time is 2pm. Could be good.
Morris
Dancer
Should have got on the safety car at 1/3 on Friday!
ReplyDeleteI'm going to bet really small stakes on the Manors for points, just because I want to see them get points really.
The under 17.5 finishers is good value even at short odds, following you in on that one.
Really unlikely a red flag will come out without a safety car being called first, due to logistics and speed of information sharing - the 1.11 is basically free money but seems poor value now it's shortened so much - that's my Kylie bet ;) - but no, I didn't get on it on Friday either.
Sandpit.
My problem with Manor is that (whilst relatively stronger) it's still a backmarker team that has only ever scored points on one occasion. It is a credible possibility, but I don't think those odds are value, though I hope your bet comes off.
DeleteThis race will suit Williams, so I'm going Bottas for top 6.
ReplyDeleteRed Bull have said they will lost 1.2 sec on the straights here and after his 6th place last week and with the 4th fastest car that's got to be Kimi for podium or at least top 6. I'm going brave on podium.
I'd have taken double points for McLaren but WH don't offer that. Really should get more accounts elsewhere.
Definitely on the <17.5 finishing.
Bottas odds? Sounds very plausible.
DeleteIf the Red Bulls start well they might do alright, but the straight could be their undoing. Raikkonen for a podium is a credible outcome (prefer Perez because he was faster than everyone save the Mercedes, I think, throughout qualifying).
Ladbrokes do a double points market usually.
Oops, I posted this below in error, so am doing so should anyone wish to follow me in, although clearly not Morris who is taking a diametrically opposite view of Vittel's prospects ..... I'm just praying that the two Ferraris don't take each other out!
ReplyDeleteYesterday, pre-qualifying, I posted on PB.com my single bet for the race, i.e. Vittel to get a Podium at odds of 7/4. I see he's now only 11/10 for this bet, so it looks like I got good value.
Of course, good value is one thing, delivering a winnin g bet is quite another, but fingers crossed.
Oops, I posted this below in error, so am doing so should anyone wish to follow me in, although clearly not Morris who is taking a diametrically opposite view of Vittel's prospects ..... I'm just praying that the two Ferraris don't take each other out!
ReplyDeleteYesterday, pre-qualifying, I posted on PB.com my single bet for the race, i.e. Vittel to get a Podium at odds of 7/4. I see he's now only 11/10 for this bet, so it looks like I got good value.
Of course, good value is one thing, delivering a winnin g bet is quite another, but fingers crossed.