Azerbaijan: pre-race 2016

Well, qualifying was rather interesting. My prediction of Hamilton being dominant was utterly wrong, but then, betting’s always easier when you know the result.

In Q1 the Renaults were dire, coming last, with Ericsson directly ahead of them. Next was Button, disappointingly (he may have had traffic issues but the McLaren still isn’t great). The two Manors, in a relatively good position, were ahead, with Haryanto just beating his much-fancied team mate Wehrlein.

In Q2 we lost both Haas (Grosjean 11th, Gutierrrez 15th). Nasr was slowest in this session, with Spaniards Sainz and Alonso 13th and 14th respectively. Hulkenberg should’ve qualified easily, but was only 12th. His fast lap was screwed up when he made a mistake, and I believe his second run was compromised by yellow flags. There were minor handbags over the radio with his team. A shame, as Force India is very tasty on this track.

Q3 was rather intriguing. Hamilton was out ahead of Rosberg and both initially did slow warm-up laps, as is their wont. Then Hamilton, who had locked up a few times, drove into a wall and broke his suspension, bringing out a red flag. Rosberg, by this time, had passed Hamilton (when the Briton had locked up earlier and gone exploring run-off), and Hamilton was 9th (Verstappen had yet to set a time). Perez was 2nd, then Vettel 3rd (the Mexican, alas, has a five place grid penalty for a gearbox change due to a crash in practice).

However, though a red flag emerged there was a final opportunity for all save Hamilton to try and set a better time. Rosberg, with a stonking margin over Perez, decided to relax in the pits instead.

Bottas tried to pass Verstappen, which buggered up both their laps and led to the Dutchman being quite irate on the radio. Ricciardo and Vettel set identical times, but as the Aussie set his earlier he gets to go ahead (Perez remained 2nd but starts 7th due to the penalty). Raikkonen and Massa are next, followed by Kvyat, Bottas, Verstappen and Hamilton.

At the time of writing it’s unclear if Hamilton will be allowed to change any of his Q2 qualifying tyres for the race start. He probably wants to, as they’ve been flat-spotted and it’s a probable one-stop strategy for the race.

I’m also going to keep my eyes open for penalties for others for blocking which could shake things up.

Slightly odd circuit. Lots of it is tight and twisty and tedious, as I expected, but the straight is very open and there could be a lot of passing there. I also expect many crashes.

According to commentary the 2nd place grid slot has the inside line going into the first corner, so Ricciardo for leading lap 1 may be a bet worth taking, although the line is at the end of an enormous straight which will definitely suit the Mercedes engine over the Renault.

Initial bets that sprang to mind:
Hamilton podium
Low number of classified finishers
Safety Car
Hulkenberg points
Perez top 6
Ricciardo lead lap 1
Raikkonen/Vettel not to be classified
Manors for a point

Hamilton is 1.28 for a podium. Hmm. No. Likely to happen. But not that likely.

There’s 1.57 on Ladbrokes for under 17.5 classified finishers. Despite the short odds I think that’s value. There are reliability question marks, especially over the Ferraris, and the circuit is phenomenally tight in places. Only five retirements are needed for this to come off and only 10/22 GP2 drivers finished.

Safety Car is 1.11. Now, I’m not sure about this. It’s very likely there’ll be one, but if there’s a red flag that might happen before the safety car is deployed. That’s my only concern (that and a burning hatred of such short odds). I think it’s value but that measly 1.11 is too short to tempt me.

Hulkenberg is 1.4 for points. I’m very confident he has the pace, but the potential for crashing does put me off a bit.

Perez is 1.61 to be top 6. Like Kylie Minogue, short, but tempting. He’s also 6 for a podium, which is also of interest.

Ricciardo is 4.5 to lead lap 1. Interesting. I think he has a good shot at the first corner but my concerns would be Vettel can also have lightning starts, and the Red Bull may not be able to hold off the cars behind (which are faster in a straight line) to the line. Vettel is 5.5 to lead lap 1.

Raikkonen is 4.5 and Vettel 5.5 not to be classified. I’m a bit conflicted on this as I think both are value (both had KERS issues in practice and Raikkonen had power loss in P3, not to mention the narrow circuit) but I’m also aware this has been a bit of a go-to bet for me and I don’t want to just do things on auto-pilot (as well as having a knack for picking only races when they finish to back this).

The Manors are only 13 and 15 for points. Given that requires them to finish and for many others to retire, it seems a bit tight-fisted.

So, few finishers, Perez and the Ferraris to fail are all tempting. A quick perusal of the markets didn’t throw up anything else of great interest.

Tips:
Number of classified finishers under 17.5, at 1.57, Ladbrokes
Perez podium, 6, Ladbrokes (I would’ve preferred a back-and-hedge on Betfair but the odds were just 4.5)
Vettel/Raikkonen, not to be classified, 5.5/4.5 respectively, Ladbrokes (single stake split in half, counts as one tip)

Three tips is more than usual, and it’s worth noting the last time I offered three they all, er, failed. But there’s plenty of opportunity for crashing in Baku, the more the better.

Race start time is 2pm. Could be good.


Morris Dancer

Comments

  1. Should have got on the safety car at 1/3 on Friday!

    I'm going to bet really small stakes on the Manors for points, just because I want to see them get points really.

    The under 17.5 finishers is good value even at short odds, following you in on that one.

    Really unlikely a red flag will come out without a safety car being called first, due to logistics and speed of information sharing - the 1.11 is basically free money but seems poor value now it's shortened so much - that's my Kylie bet ;) - but no, I didn't get on it on Friday either.

    Sandpit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My problem with Manor is that (whilst relatively stronger) it's still a backmarker team that has only ever scored points on one occasion. It is a credible possibility, but I don't think those odds are value, though I hope your bet comes off.

      Delete
  2. This race will suit Williams, so I'm going Bottas for top 6.

    Red Bull have said they will lost 1.2 sec on the straights here and after his 6th place last week and with the 4th fastest car that's got to be Kimi for podium or at least top 6. I'm going brave on podium.

    I'd have taken double points for McLaren but WH don't offer that. Really should get more accounts elsewhere.

    Definitely on the <17.5 finishing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bottas odds? Sounds very plausible.

      If the Red Bulls start well they might do alright, but the straight could be their undoing. Raikkonen for a podium is a credible outcome (prefer Perez because he was faster than everyone save the Mercedes, I think, throughout qualifying).

      Ladbrokes do a double points market usually.

      Delete
  3. Oops, I posted this below in error, so am doing so should anyone wish to follow me in, although clearly not Morris who is taking a diametrically opposite view of Vittel's prospects ..... I'm just praying that the two Ferraris don't take each other out!

    Yesterday, pre-qualifying, I posted on PB.com my single bet for the race, i.e. Vittel to get a Podium at odds of 7/4. I see he's now only 11/10 for this bet, so it looks like I got good value.
    Of course, good value is one thing, delivering a winnin g bet is quite another, but fingers crossed.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Oops, I posted this below in error, so am doing so should anyone wish to follow me in, although clearly not Morris who is taking a diametrically opposite view of Vittel's prospects ..... I'm just praying that the two Ferraris don't take each other out!

    Yesterday, pre-qualifying, I posted on PB.com my single bet for the race, i.e. Vittel to get a Podium at odds of 7/4. I see he's now only 11/10 for this bet, so it looks like I got good value.
    Of course, good value is one thing, delivering a winnin g bet is quite another, but fingers crossed.

    ReplyDelete

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