Canada: pre-qualifying 2016
The
first of a back-to-back pair of races (Azerbaijan is next weekend),
we’re in Canada this time. I like Canada’s circuit a lot,
although it’s always worth checking the weather forecast.
In
the first practice session, Hamilton was three tenths up on Rosberg,
with Vettel and Verstappen following. Raikkonen and Bottas were next,
with Hulkenberg, Sainz, Perez and Alonso rounding out the top 10.
In
the second practice session, Hamilton was two-tenths up on Vettel,
with Rosberg three-tenths further down the road. Verstappen,
Ricciardo and Bottas followed, with Button, Raikkonen, Hulkenberg and
Sainz next up.
A
red flag caused by a large Magnussen crash meant there was no real
qualifying simulation in the third practice session, although it did seem fairly close at the sharp
end.
Because
of that, Vettel was fastest, two-tenths up on Verstappen. Rosberg and
Raikkonen were next (on almost identical times), followed by Hamilton
and Ricciardo. Sainz, Alonso, Perez and Massa round out the top 10.
Checking
Wunderground, there’s a slightly better than evens chance of rain
for qualifying (and a strong minority (30-40% chance) of rain during
the race. If there is rain that relatively advantages Red Bull over
Ferrari, and won’t help Williams.
Pole
seems very hard to call.
Bets
I had in mind at this stage:
Alonso
for Q3
Lay
Massa Q3
Alonso
was only evens, so that doesn’t tempt. Massa’s lay odds were
1.95, which is too long.
I
was surprised to see Hamilton was 1.61 and Rosberg 4 to take pole.
Each way the odds are a a third, so that’s evens for Rosberg to be
top two. He’s been top two in qualifying at every race this year.
So,
a tip, surprisingly:
Rosberg,
pole (each way), 4 (Ladbrokes).
Morris
Dancer
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