Canada: pre-race 2016
Rosberg
got very close to poll, but you don’t win bets by nearly being
right. On the plus side, the each way element came off so there was
neither a loss nor a gain.
In
the first part of qualifying, Magnussen was unable to put in a time
due to crashing. Both Saubers and both Manors also failed to escape
(Wehrlein top of that quartet in 18th) and Palmer, the
other Renault driver, also did not progress.
It
was pretty competitive at the sharp end of Q2. Button locked a brake
which may have cost him progression, but his team mate did get
through. Likewise, Perez did not advance, Hulkenberg did. Both Toro
Rossos and both Haas cars [which have been odd this year, starting
spectacularly and then falling off a cliff] exited at this stage.
In
Q3 there were only two chaps competing for pole. Hamilton got it by
less than a tenth over his team mate. Obviously disappointing the
full bet didn’t come off, but the each way aspect meant it was
neutral (for the record, that counts as a win). For a long time it
was a class of two, but Vettel got surprisingly close, just a tenth
off Rosberg’s time. With tyre degradation a potential factor, the
gentler Ferrari might yet spring a surprise.
Ricciardo
was next, a quarter of a second ahead of his team mate. At the
moment, I do think the Aussie is top dog in Red Bull. Raikkonen had a
lacklustre 6th. Bottas and Massa were next, which is a bit
better than I’d expected (the Williams is tasty in a straight line
but a bit rubbish at slow corners, of which Canada has many).
Hulkenberg and Alonso were next up.
There’s
a 40% chance of rain in the first hour, 20% in the second. So, rain
must be considered, but not assumed.
Without
checking the markets, bets that sprung to mind were:
Raikkonen
not to be classified
Alonso/Button
points
Ricciardo
podium
Raikkonen
is 4.33 not to be classified. I find that quite tempting. The Ferrari
has slightly suspect reliability, rain may help increase the odds of
failing to finish and starting 6th means there’s plenty
of scope for a lap 1 crash.
Alonso
and Button are about 1.8 and evens for points. I think that’s about
right, and, hence, not value.
Ricciardo’s
2.25 for a podium. Again, I think that’s fair and, therefore, not
value. Was hoping he’d be a shade longer.
The
Raikkonen bet is quite appealing, but I thought I’d peruse the
markets anyway to see if anything leapt out like a panther on an
unwary dentist from Minnesota.
Vettel
is 9 to lead lap 1. That’s slightly tempting as the Mercedes,
especially Hamilton, have had some dodgy starts this year. My issue
with this market is it’s almost entirely random.
In
the end, I just went for the Raikkonen bet. So, the tip is:
Raikkonen,
Not To Be Classified, 4.33 (Ladbrokes)
Race
start is 7pm UK time (that always throws me off-kilter). Let’s hope
it’s another Canadian classic.
The
post-race analysis will be done tomorrow.
Morris
Dancer
Good evening Mr Dancer.
ReplyDeleteMy apologies for my absence recently from your most excellent blog.
Some things which caught my eye.
Without any intervention Mercedes should always get fastest lap but in these conditions I fancy Vettel to pinch that.
Sainz for Points (the penalty is not reflected in his price), Bottas for top 6 (the Williams is getting worse and his odds are out of alignment with that so it's value) and it's hard to see past Hamilton for the win.
I did very nicely on the golf last weekend so I have some money to waste. In the absence of one of your infamous tennis tips I will follow you in on the Raikkonen tip instead :)
Race Winner – Lewis Hamilton @ 4/5 EW WIN
ReplyDeleteTop 6 Finish – Valtteri Bottas @ 11/10 WIN
Points Finish – Carlos Sainz Jr @ 5/4 WIN
Not To Complete The Race – Kimi Raikkonen @ 7/2 LOSE
Fastest Lap – Sebastian Vettel @ 7/1 LOSE
That gives me an 18% return. Woohoo!
Glad to see you back, Mr. M.
ReplyDeleteMust admit to being a bit disappointed with both race and betting result. Always irksome to raise a long odds winner and not back it oneself.
Congrats on your overall green result. Williams did far better than I expected, and Sainz did well to rise through the ranks for points.