Posts

Showing posts from July, 2016

Germany: post-race analysis 2016

Fair to say a tip that was plain wrong (whilst Hulkenberg did receive a minor grid penalty after I bet, this did not affect things substantially) and a race that had some interesting moments but was not a classic. The first lap was frantic and exciting. Rosberg had an atrocious start, slipping to 4 th , and Verstappen had a tasty getaway, rising to 2 nd behind Hamilton. Hamilton spent the rest of the race cruising to victory and contemplating what to do on his summer holiday. Gutierrez started 11 th and was the only man on the soft (all others on supersoft). The potential strategic advantage was lost somewhat when he left the handbrake on at the start and fell down to around 16 th . As Rosberg fought back he passed Verstappen after a round of pit stops with an aggressive overtake, very late braking into the hairpin. This level of excitement was clearly contrary to the principles of modern F1 and the German was duly penalised with a 5s penalty [which he took at h

Germany: pre-race 2016

In the first session of qualifying it was misery for Sauber, who were last. Wehrlein and Haryanto were 18 th and 20 th respectively (it may be the latter’s last race due to money issues. Potential replacements include McLaren future driver Stoffel Vandoorne and Renault chap Esteban Ocon). Kvyat was just 19 th (and sounded quite lost during a rather sad interview afterwards). Magnussen was 17 th . Palmer made Q2, but made no further progress, starting just one place ahead of his team mate. Surprisingly, neither McLaren made Q3 (Button outqualifying his Spanish team mate, 12 th to 14 th ). Grosjean was 15 th , but has a five place grid penalty for a gearbox change, Gutierrez was 11 th and Sainz 13 th . Throughout the weekend, Mercedes appeared to be in a league of one. During the first fast laps of Q3, Rosberg abruptly bailed on a good lap, and dove into the pits. It turned out to be an electronic problem, and whilst it was mended he meant he would get only one fast lap.

Germany: pre-qualifying 2016

Some off-track news for next year first. The halo won’t be included in 2017 but will be in the 2018 season. However, wet standing starts appear to be back for 2017. After the first crash, I imagine there’ll be instant calls for a return to the safe tedium of a safety car trundling around for 8 laps at the start, so we’ll see how long that lasts. It also appears radio communication restrictions have been axed, with immediate effect. Perhaps Button getting a penalty for being told what to do when his brake pedal was broken prompted the change. Sadly, that good news isn’t as good as it first appeared: "Looking at 2017, two new rules will be introduced - there will be standing re-starts after a safety car start in wet conditions; and during a race stoppage, teams will no longer be able to change their cars or tyres." from: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/36684756 In first practice Rosberg led the way, three-tenths up on Hamilton. Vettel was almost a s

Hungary: post-race analysis 2016

Must admit, I was unusually tense about the race. I tend not to make short odds bets, and tend not to be very confident about them (to the extent I was wondering if I’d missed something). However, it turned out the race track least likely to have a safety car was unlikely to have a safety car. The short odds bet came off, and there was much rejoicing. The start was pretty much the race. Rosberg started badly, slipped to 3 rd and quickly regained 2 nd , and that was how the top three finished (Ricciardo next up). Button had a brake problem (in that they didn’t work), got guidance from the team after he slipped to last, then got a drive-through penalty for the radio communication. He was, rightly, cheesed off with the powers that be and pointed out over the radio that brake failure was actually a safety issue. Later, his miserable race was capped by an oil leak which forced him to be the only retirement. There were some tight battles (Hamilton and Rosberg, Riccardo and

Hungary: pre-race 2016

Qualifying went on for bloody ages. It was very wet, so the start was delayed, and then there were three red flags in the first part of qualifying (which lasted about 75 minutes, including the delayed start). It was properly pissing it down when the first part of qualifying was due to commence, so the prolonged delay was entirely justified. Indeed, drivers only got in a single, very wet, lap before the rain intensified and the first red flag was waved. Eventually the rain clouds passed and the cars went out. Almost immediately Ericsson introduced his Sauber to the advertising hoardings. Red flag came out again. The car was cleared, and by this time the track was drying rapidly. A few risked intermediate tyres. Massa made a tiny mistake, his car aquaplaned and he struck a barrier, bringing out another flag. Towards the very end of the session, Haryanto repeated Ericsson’s accident, and there was such little time left the red flag was waved and the Q1 session was not restarted

Hungary: pre-qualifying

A few snippets of news emerged recently. Rosberg has signed a new contract with Mercedes, so both he and Hamilton will be there until 2018. There are also new rules on radio transmissions. Now, drivers being given advice (to fix a problem, improving performance is still banned) must return to the pits (not necessarily stop, they can just cruise through). In addition, rain is possible for the race (which could see a rare Hungarian safety car appearance), and the track has been resurfaced, which is slightly chewing up tyres (that said, a two stop is likelier than a three stop, assuming it’s dry). There’s been much mulling and murmuring about whether the Red Bulls might be able to take the fight to Mercedes here. Also worth remembering that it’s hard to overtake at the Hungaroring. The tyres, I think, are supersoft (1.5s faster than the next tyre), soft and medium. In first practice, Hamilton was about a quarter of a second ahead of Rosberg, who was nearly a second an

The 2016 Mid-season Review

Image
From last race: Rosberg eventually got a 10s time penalty, which dropped him to 3 rd . It’s been a bit of a flat season so far, in betting terms. I’m in the red marginally with a hedged approach (just over 1 stake) and a bit more, without being catastrophic, on a bet-and-forget approach (just over 3 stakes). I’ve got either 5 or 6 (the latter for hedged) of 22 tips offered in in pre-qualifying and pre-race pieces correct, which is a pretty low proportion. After making losses at the first four races, I had a nice race in Spain, with a health profit of £60 (assuming £10 stakes). Since then things have been marginally red overall. Although I’m not counting this in my records, I did offer a tip for Spain on Verstappen winning which, at the time, was 250/1. When the markets took notice he’d shifted to Red Bull, it fell to 40/1, which remains a pleasingly long odds winner. Because of the short-term nature of the bet (I knew the odds would tumble swiftly) I didn’t offer

United Kingdom: post-race analysis 2016

Must admit, I found the race a shade disappointing in betting terms and a bit so-so in terms of racing. Despite wet conditions and many skids, neither McLaren retired (Alonso, the bounder, skidded through the gravel, hit the barrier, and kept going. The fiend). Off the line there was no excitement because it had rained fairly heavily and we had a safety car start. As is now the modus operandi of F1, the safety car stayed out too bloody long and almost immediately some cars dove into the pits for the intermediates. The Red Bull was racier than a drunk stripper, and Verstappen passed Rosberg (who was relatively slow on the intermediates). It appeared the lead four (Mercedes and Red Bulls) had missed the boat with regards to the optimal strategy (intermediate whilst waiting for slicks). Perez had also stayed out and had therefore risen to 5 th , at this early stage. However, Wehrlein was the first (but certainly not the last) to skid on a damp patch at the first corner. H

United Kingdom: pre-race 2016

Qualifying was dry, but quite interesting nevertheless (although I’d dispute the ‘zero tolerance’ of track limits). It was also mildly profitable, as Alonso kindly obliged by reaching the final part of the session. Bit relieved, as short odds bets aren’t really my cup of tea. It was overcast and grey (it is the British summer, after all) but no rain fell. Marcus Ericsson, after a substantial crash in practice, did not compete (he may be permitted to race, or not). The Sauber of Nasr and both Manors were at the back of the field, as is usually the case. Both Palmer and Magnussen suffered deleted times for crossing the white lines that denote the track and had to go again. Magnussen made it, Palmer did not. Button was a long way back from Alonso, because his rear end plate had become loose (costing him downforce) and mending it prevented him getting another fast lap in. Alas, this meant he exited at this stage. Q2 saw Magnussen last, and both Haas drivers failed to progre

United Kingdom: pre-qualifying 2016

The Mercedes’ drivers have been told not to be naughty or they’ll be punished. If they collide again and it’s one driver’s fault rather than a racing incident that driver may miss the subsequent race. We’ll see (if they collide) whether that actually happens as it’d be a pretty severe sanction, albeit better than implementing team orders. In more driver news, Raikkonen has, slightly surprisingly, got another year with Ferrari. Shortly after that news broke, Force India indicated it would retain its rather good driver lineup. Two or three stops (likely soft-soft-soft-medium if the latter) are expected. I think the third compound is supersoft. In first practice Hamilton was a full three-hundredths of a second up on Rosberg. Hulkenberg was nearly a second down the road, with Vettel close behind. Ricciardo, Raikkonen, Verstappen, Perez, Sainz and Alonso round out the top 10. In second practice Rosberg ran no laps at all. Uncertain what the issue was at this stage. Hami

Austria: post-race analysis 2016

The race was thrilling for the eyes and frustrating for the wallet. Of three tips offered this weekend, not one came off. One was definitely ill-judgement (Hamilton started well), one was possible but for misfortune (Vettel to get fastest qualifying time each way) and one really should’ve come off but every little thing seemed against it (Raikkonen each way for the win). Off the line, Hamilton actually started well. So did Button. Raikkonen passed Hulkenberg, who slid down the order (through the race), but the Finn was unable to get closer because Button was, quite selfishly, in the way. [There was a blank space on the grid ahead of Wehrlein due to Massa starting, with Kvyat, in the pit lane. The German forgot about this, went one place too far on the grid and reversed into position but, oddly, there's no rule against reversing on the grid and he didn’t get a penalty for that]. Ricciardo had a poor start and Verstappen a flyer, so much so the Red Bulls ended up swapping

Austria: pre-race 2016

Qualifying was hugely entertaining, but not very profitable as the bet didn’t come off. It was misfortune that prevented Vettel having a decent crack at the fastest time, but whether he would’ve been fast enough for the front row remains uncertain. So, I’m attributing the failure to bad luck rather than ill-judgement. Q1 will be remembered for the red flag that fluttered when Kvyat got onto the kerbs and his right rear suspension snapped. The ensuing crash was significant enough to delay the session for about 15-20 minutes, which would have a substantial effect on how things turned out at the sharp end. The woe of Sauber continued, with their drivers slowest of all. Kvyat was just ahead of them, with Haryanto 19 th and the two Renaults in front of him. Perez also suffered a suspension failure, but had put in a fast enough lap to reach Q2 (so he starts 16 th ). On a similar note, Sainz went out after the red flag (as did many others) but his engine immediately blew up

Austria: pre-qualifying 2016

Vettel has a gearbox change, which means he gets a five place grid penalty. His Ferrari should be competitive around the high speed Austrian circuit, but the Williams and Force Indias may prove tricky to pass. Hamilton is now on the verge of grid penalties for changing bits of his engine, having lost multiple parts to sheer bad luck and reliability failures early on. I forget if it’s a 10 place penalty or starting at the back (suspect the latter) but either way it will make Rosberg’s life a little easier. In practice 1, Rosberg was nearly half a second ahead of his team mate, with Vettel and Raikkonen following. Ricciardo, Sainz, Massa, Verstappen, Kvyat and Bottas round out the top 10. Practice 2 was heavily rain-affected, so the times are perhaps a little less useful. Rosberg was quickest again, although just two-hundredths up on Hamilton this time. Hulkenberg and Vettel were more than half a second down the road. Ricciardo, Sainz, Verstappen, Raikkonen, Bottas and Bu