Austria: pre-qualifying 2016
Vettel
has a gearbox change, which means he gets a five place grid penalty.
His Ferrari should be competitive around the high speed Austrian
circuit, but the Williams and Force Indias may prove tricky to pass.
Hamilton
is now on the verge of grid penalties for changing bits of his
engine, having lost multiple parts to sheer bad luck and reliability
failures early on. I forget if it’s a 10 place penalty or starting
at the back (suspect the latter) but either way it will make
Rosberg’s life a little easier.
In
practice 1, Rosberg was nearly half a second ahead of his team mate,
with Vettel and Raikkonen following. Ricciardo, Sainz, Massa,
Verstappen, Kvyat and Bottas round out the top 10.
Practice
2 was heavily rain-affected, so the times are perhaps a little less
useful. Rosberg was quickest again, although just two-hundredths up
on Hamilton this time. Hulkenberg and Vettel were more than half a
second down the road. Ricciardo, Sainz, Verstappen, Raikkonen, Bottas
and Button were next.
The
circuit should be atrocious for McLaren (high speed does not lend
itself to the underpowered Honda engine). The Williams-Force India
battle could be close, and it’ll be interesting to see just how
good the upgraded Ferrari engine is.
In
P3 Rosberg had a left rear suspension failure which caused a
substantial crash, and a red flag. Unclear if the car will be ready
for qualifying, and If the gearbox is ok (if damaged, that’s a five
place grid penalty).
In
P3, Vettel was fastest, a little over a tenth ahead of Raikkonen.
Hamilton was less than a tenth behind the Ferrari pair, with
Ricciardo three-tenths off the Briton. Verstappen, Bottas, Massa,
Hulkenberg, Button and Alonso finish the top 10.
Intriguing
that two McLarens made the top 10.
It’s
also worth noting there’s a serious risk of thunderstorms in
qualifying. The race, at this stage, may see patchy rain but nothing
too serious.
Hard
to assess whether Ferrari are truly in the hunt. Their engine is
reportedly on a par with Mercedes’, and they’ve used a
development token (to improve it) for this race. Hmm. When
considering the race, bear in mind Vettel has a five place grid
penalty for a gearbox change.
Update:
Rosberg has a gearbox change = 5 place penalty.
Very
unusually, I offered an early race tip (on pb.com) for Raikkonen to
win each way (Ladbrokes), 15 (1/3 odds for top 2). With penalties for
both Rosberg and Vettel and the Ferrari potentially being a match for
the Mercedes, it seems value to me.
Back
to qualifying, the circuit’s got delightful surroundings but is in
the middle of nowhere, which makes getting a good idea of the
forecast a bit tricky. Thunderstorms are eminently possible. That
would help Red Bull (and Mercedes) relative to Ferrari. But in the
dry Ferrari may be a match for Mercedes, and Red Bull will be some
way back.
If
you believe Red Bull has a chance, I’d go for Ricciardo each way at
34 (he’s been ahead of Verstappen throughout the weekend).
The
weather makes this tighter than I’d like, but I think Vettel each
way at 6 (Ladbrokes) for fastest Q3 time makes sense. If Rosberg’s
car isn’t ready to go, Vettel has a very good chance. If it is,
Vettel may still make the top 2. [Longer odds, but little liquidity,
are available on Betfair].
So,
one pre-qualifying tip: Vettel, fastest Q3 time (each way), 6,
Ladbrokes
The
pre-race piece will likely be up this afternoon/evening, as usual,
but there is a chance I’ll leave it until the morning for a more up
to date weather forecast.
Morris
Dancer
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