Austria: pre-qualifying 2016

Vettel has a gearbox change, which means he gets a five place grid penalty. His Ferrari should be competitive around the high speed Austrian circuit, but the Williams and Force Indias may prove tricky to pass.

Hamilton is now on the verge of grid penalties for changing bits of his engine, having lost multiple parts to sheer bad luck and reliability failures early on. I forget if it’s a 10 place penalty or starting at the back (suspect the latter) but either way it will make Rosberg’s life a little easier.

In practice 1, Rosberg was nearly half a second ahead of his team mate, with Vettel and Raikkonen following. Ricciardo, Sainz, Massa, Verstappen, Kvyat and Bottas round out the top 10.

Practice 2 was heavily rain-affected, so the times are perhaps a little less useful. Rosberg was quickest again, although just two-hundredths up on Hamilton this time. Hulkenberg and Vettel were more than half a second down the road. Ricciardo, Sainz, Verstappen, Raikkonen, Bottas and Button were next.

The circuit should be atrocious for McLaren (high speed does not lend itself to the underpowered Honda engine). The Williams-Force India battle could be close, and it’ll be interesting to see just how good the upgraded Ferrari engine is.

In P3 Rosberg had a left rear suspension failure which caused a substantial crash, and a red flag. Unclear if the car will be ready for qualifying, and If the gearbox is ok (if damaged, that’s a five place grid penalty).

In P3, Vettel was fastest, a little over a tenth ahead of Raikkonen. Hamilton was less than a tenth behind the Ferrari pair, with Ricciardo three-tenths off the Briton. Verstappen, Bottas, Massa, Hulkenberg, Button and Alonso finish the top 10.

Intriguing that two McLarens made the top 10.

It’s also worth noting there’s a serious risk of thunderstorms in qualifying. The race, at this stage, may see patchy rain but nothing too serious.

Hard to assess whether Ferrari are truly in the hunt. Their engine is reportedly on a par with Mercedes’, and they’ve used a development token (to improve it) for this race. Hmm. When considering the race, bear in mind Vettel has a five place grid penalty for a gearbox change.

Update: Rosberg has a gearbox change = 5 place penalty.

Very unusually, I offered an early race tip (on pb.com) for Raikkonen to win each way (Ladbrokes), 15 (1/3 odds for top 2). With penalties for both Rosberg and Vettel and the Ferrari potentially being a match for the Mercedes, it seems value to me.

Back to qualifying, the circuit’s got delightful surroundings but is in the middle of nowhere, which makes getting a good idea of the forecast a bit tricky. Thunderstorms are eminently possible. That would help Red Bull (and Mercedes) relative to Ferrari. But in the dry Ferrari may be a match for Mercedes, and Red Bull will be some way back.

If you believe Red Bull has a chance, I’d go for Ricciardo each way at 34 (he’s been ahead of Verstappen throughout the weekend).

The weather makes this tighter than I’d like, but I think Vettel each way at 6 (Ladbrokes) for fastest Q3 time makes sense. If Rosberg’s car isn’t ready to go, Vettel has a very good chance. If it is, Vettel may still make the top 2. [Longer odds, but little liquidity, are available on Betfair].

So, one pre-qualifying tip: Vettel, fastest Q3 time (each way), 6, Ladbrokes

The pre-race piece will likely be up this afternoon/evening, as usual, but there is a chance I’ll leave it until the morning for a more up to date weather forecast.


Morris Dancer

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