Austria: pre-race 2016

Qualifying was hugely entertaining, but not very profitable as the bet didn’t come off. It was misfortune that prevented Vettel having a decent crack at the fastest time, but whether he would’ve been fast enough for the front row remains uncertain. So, I’m attributing the failure to bad luck rather than ill-judgement.

Q1 will be remembered for the red flag that fluttered when Kvyat got onto the kerbs and his right rear suspension snapped. The ensuing crash was significant enough to delay the session for about 15-20 minutes, which would have a substantial effect on how things turned out at the sharp end.

The woe of Sauber continued, with their drivers slowest of all. Kvyat was just ahead of them, with Haryanto 19^th and the two Renaults in front of him.

Perez also suffered a suspension failure, but had put in a fast enough lap to reach Q2 (so he starts 16^th). On a similar note, Sainz went out after the red flag (as did many others) but his engine immediately blew up.

In happier news, Wehrlein forgot his Manor is a slow car and posted the 10^th fastest time.

Q2 was peculiar because both Perez and Sainz were ‘in’ the session but their cars weren’t on-track. Gutierrez was the fastest chap not to escape, with Grosjean in 13^th, the two Haas drivers split by the impressive Wehrlein. Alonso was a somewhat lacklustre 14^th (perhaps because rain had started to fall and his initial lap wasn’t swift enough).

Also worth noting that the Ferraris set their times (and therefore start the race) on supersofts (rather than the faster ultrasofts). I think the Red Bulls managed to copy this, and Wehrlein did likewise [which may have stopped him reaching Q3] but the Mercedes did not.

By the time the session should’ve ended, it was showering a fair bit. Not buckets, but enough for intermediates. Had everything run on schedule Vettel would’ve had a shot at the fastest two times (in Q1 he split the two Mercdes).

Q3 was wet. Everyone went out on intermediates initially, but the rain stopped and the track dried very quickly. Everyone then dashed in for slick tyres, and the times were tumbling by seconds. It was a bit of a lottery according to when you crossed the line, which gave us an intriguing grid but also meant Vettel was ‘well off’ the pace.

In the end the grid [NB not the qualifying result] was:

Hamilton-Hulkenberg*

Button-Raikkonen

Ricciardo-Bottas

Rosberg-Verstappen

Vettel-Massa

*Hulkenberg is under investigation for failing to account for yellow flags but his team are confident they can show he lifted.

A word on the early Raikkonen bet: I mentioned him to win, each way, at 15 with Ladbrokes. He’s up there now at 13, (starts 4^th, 3^rd if Hulkenberg’s given a penalty) and I still think that’s value. Button, sadly, is near certain to go backwards in the dry. The Force India may prove trickier but DRS could prove effective.

Rain is unlikely. Showers could happen but the odds are against it, and heavy rain appears even less probable. I’m assuming the race be largely or wholly dry.

Bets that spring to mind:

Vettel podium

Hulkenberg podium

Rosberg win

Raikkonen lead lap 1 (maybe Hulkenberg too)

Lay Ricciardo podium

Lay Button top 6/points

Vettel is scarcely over evens for a podium, and Hulkenberg is 3.25. I think both are very short, especially Vettel (he stands a good chance, but he’s starting 9^th, behind both Mercedes, and his own team mate). I also think the Hulkenberg odds seem a bit out of kilter with his win odds (17).

Rosberg is 5 to win. I’m not sure that’s value. Ferrari seem to have superior strategy with Vettel/Raikkonen (the supersoft can run twice as long as the ultrasoft and doesn’t seem to be miles slower). The Williams and Force Indias may be tricky to pass. I suspect Hamilton will scamper off into the distance, much as Rosberg did at Baku. [If you think Vettel/Rosberg collectively have a good chance of winning, there is a Winning Nationality market, with Germany at 2.87].

Raikkonen is 11 to lead lap 1, Hulkenberg 6. That’s actually pretty tempting. However, I had to delay for the stewards to decide whether Hulkenberg would get a penalty. [He did not get one in the end].

The run down to the start appears to be of average length, so plenty of scope for Hamilton to bugger up the start (although that shouldn’t be taken as read, it is likelier than a great getaway, given recent performances).

Ricciardo has lay odds of 10.5 for a podium. That’s just too long.

Button’s lay odds for top 6 and points are 8 and 4 respectively. Again, too long to tempt.

So, I backed with one stake split more or less for even profit Raikkonen and Hulkenberg to lead lap 1 at 11 and 6 respectively (Ladbrokes).

Morris Dancer