Germany: pre-race 2016

In the first session of qualifying it was misery for Sauber, who were last. Wehrlein and Haryanto were 18^th and 20^th respectively (it may be the latter’s last race due to money issues. Potential replacements include McLaren future driver Stoffel Vandoorne and Renault chap Esteban Ocon). Kvyat was just 19^th (and sounded quite lost during a rather sad interview afterwards). Magnussen was 17^th.

Palmer made Q2, but made no further progress, starting just one place ahead of his team mate. Surprisingly, neither McLaren made Q3 (Button outqualifying his Spanish team mate, 12^th to 14^th). Grosjean was 15^th, but has a five place grid penalty for a gearbox change, Gutierrez was 11^th and Sainz 13^th.

Throughout the weekend, Mercedes appeared to be in a league of one. During the first fast laps of Q3, Rosberg abruptly bailed on a good lap, and dove into the pits. It turned out to be an electronic problem, and whilst it was mended he meant he would get only one fast lap.

One was enough. He nailed his qualifying lap for pole, whereas Hamilton locked a wheel and will start 2^nd (Rosberg also had more fuel on board in case he needed another lap). Ricciardo was a quarter of a second back and lines up alongside his team mate.

Raikkonen leads Vettel on the Ferrari third row. Row four is Hulkenberg and Bottas, row five is Perez and Massa. The latter quartet were very close together.

There’s a roughly 10-15% chance of rain. So, unlikely, but can’t be written off entirely. Ricciardo starts on tyres that have done a little more mileage than they should’ve. May necessitate an early stop and bugger things up for him.

Sainz has a three place grid penalty for impeding another driver.

Based on the grid, my initial betting thoughts were:

Rosberg win

Verstappen podium

Hulkenberg top 6

Rosberg is evens for a win. Entirely credible, as per pole, but not tempting. It’s almost a coin toss, and Hamilton had the better start last time.

Verstappen is 2.1 for a podium. If we assume Mercedes snaffle the first two places, that leaves a quartet of cars vying for the final place. In those circumstances, 2.1 is mean.

Hulkenberg is merely 2.2 for a top 6 place. Whilst he starts 7^th, it’s very close between Force India and Williams, and the three teams ahead (all else being equal) are faster. So, again, not very appealing.

So, as is the standard operating procedure, I had a look at the markets to see if any value leapt out.

Things to consider:

Verstappen win, each way 17

Raikkonen win, each way 41

Grosjean, not to be classified, 4.33

Massa, not to be classified, 4.5

Button, not to be classified, 3.4

Raikkonen, podium, 4

The Verstappen bet is based on the Red Bull generally being closer in race trim than qualifying, as well as starting better. Ricciardo may well be hampered by the need for an earlier pit stop. Verstappen’s also proven himself to be very capable if it does happen to rain. However, he did have a battery issue in practice which would ruin his race and probably cause retirement if it recurred.

Raikkonen has been faster than Vettel in every qualifying session. The Ferrari is kinder to its tyres than the Red Bull and if Ricciardo does have to stop early and gets caught in traffic, that should make life easier for Raikkonen. Against that is the starting position of 5^th and Ferrari’s recent run of bad/unlucky strategy calls.

Grosjean not to be qualified is based on his general unhappiness with car balance, coupled with the relatively narrow track meaning mistakes can lead to a DNF. There’s also the potential for a reliability failure, of course.

Massa and Button both have opportunity for lap 1 woe, the latter with additional reliability issues and the former with sometimes dodgy downforce (if it’s wet, that’ll be a problem).

Raikkonen has been quick all weekend. If we remove Ricciardo due to an early stop, and Raikkonen has the pace to pass Verstappen (overtaking is possible into the hairpin) he may be a good bet for a podium. Maybe.

It would be honest to say that, right now, I have no idea upon what to bet. Which is not tremendously helpful.

So, after much difficulty, I saw Hulkenberg is 3.05 to be top 6 on Betfair. And backed that.
Update 31 July 2016: after making this bet, it emerged Hulkenberg got a 1 place grid penalty for using tyres that should've been handed back after practice. Humbug.

Technically, that’s a tip, but it is of the pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey variety, so, more than usual, do at your own risk etc.

Morris Dancer