Hungary: post-race analysis 2016

Must admit, I was unusually tense about the race. I tend not to make short odds bets, and tend not to be very confident about them (to the extent I was wondering if I’d missed something). However, it turned out the race track least likely to have a safety car was unlikely to have a safety car. The short odds bet came off, and there was much rejoicing.

The start was pretty much the race. Rosberg started badly, slipped to 3rd and quickly regained 2nd, and that was how the top three finished (Ricciardo next up).

Button had a brake problem (in that they didn’t work), got guidance from the team after he slipped to last, then got a drive-through penalty for the radio communication. He was, rightly, cheesed off with the powers that be and pointed out over the radio that brake failure was actually a safety issue. Later, his miserable race was capped by an oil leak which forced him to be the only retirement.

There were some tight battles (Hamilton and Rosberg, Riccardo and Vettel, Verstappen and Raikkonen) but all served to prove how very difficult it is to overtake at Hungary. Raikkonen almost passed Verstappen for 5th, but the Dutchman had (in Raikkonen’s and my view) a late move that saw some contact, and the Finn lost a little of his front wing.

Woe for Palmer who was running 10th and carelessly got out onto the marbles. He skidded off the track and resumed racing, but had lost places and what would’ve been his first point. Shame.

The two Mercedes were in a league of their own (at times the cars behind were faster but the Silver Arrows both finished with a pit stop in hand). The Red Bulls and Ferraris were quite closely matched (though the former finished ahead, the latter were faster at the end). Interesting to note Rosberg was able to stick closely to Hamilton. On a circuit where passing is rather more possible the result may have been different.

Alonso was 7th. More than a lap down on the winner but in the fourth fastest car, which bodes well for McLaren (at Singapore they may have a tasty result). Also exacerbates Button’s misery.

Sainz, Bottas and Hulkenberg got the last few points.

The result means the Mercedes drivers each have 5 wins.
Hamilton 192
Rosberg 186
Ricciardo 115
Raikkonen 114
Vettel 110
Verstappen 100

Title basically done? No. Rosberg was probably faster than Hamilton today, in my view. Now, that might be down to dodgy tyres or suchlike, but Hamilton was never able to pull a significant gap and it’s extremely hard to pass in Hungary. Furthermore, Hamilton will almost certainly have more penalties (I think they’d be of the back-of-the-grid variety) due to engine parts. In fact, now may be the perfect time to consider a Rosberg title bet (although I’d want tasty odds).

Constructors:
Mercedes 378
Ferrari 224
Red Bull 223
Williams 94
Force India 74

Title is essentially over, but it’s tight for the positions behind. Ferrari would be perhaps 50 points or so higher but for dreadful reliability earlier in the year. Who’ll finish on top? Hard to say right now. Williams very slightly (by one point) extended their advantage over Force India. The latter team may yet claim a best ever result of 4th, though. The Williams is weak aerodynamically and atrocious in the wet.

Perhaps surprisingly, this was only my third green weekend of the year. I’m perplexed but pleased the bookies mispriced the safety car odds.

The next race is a week away, in Germany. After that there’s a four week break to Belgium.


Morris Dancer

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