Hungary: post-race analysis 2016
Must admit, I was
unusually tense about the race. I tend not to make short odds bets,
and tend not to be very confident about them (to the extent I was
wondering if I’d missed something). However, it turned out the race
track least likely to have a safety car was unlikely to have a safety
car. The short odds bet came off, and there was much rejoicing.
The start was pretty
much the race. Rosberg started badly, slipped to 3rd and
quickly regained 2nd, and that was how the top three
finished (Ricciardo next up).
Button had a brake
problem (in that they didn’t work), got guidance from the team
after he slipped to last, then got a drive-through penalty for the
radio communication. He was, rightly, cheesed off with the powers
that be and pointed out over the radio that brake failure was
actually a safety issue. Later, his miserable race was capped by an
oil leak which forced him to be the only retirement.
There were some tight
battles (Hamilton and Rosberg, Riccardo and Vettel, Verstappen and
Raikkonen) but all served to prove how very difficult it is to
overtake at Hungary. Raikkonen almost passed Verstappen for 5th,
but the Dutchman had (in Raikkonen’s and my view) a late move that saw
some contact, and the Finn lost a little of his front wing.
Woe for Palmer who was
running 10th and carelessly got out onto the marbles. He
skidded off the track and resumed racing, but had lost places and
what would’ve been his first point. Shame.
The two Mercedes were
in a league of their own (at times the cars behind were faster but
the Silver Arrows both finished with a pit stop in hand). The Red
Bulls and Ferraris were quite closely matched (though the former
finished ahead, the latter were faster at the end). Interesting to
note Rosberg was able to stick closely to Hamilton. On a circuit
where passing is rather more possible the result may have been
different.
Alonso was 7th.
More than a lap down on the winner but in the fourth fastest car,
which bodes well for McLaren (at Singapore they may have a tasty
result). Also exacerbates Button’s misery.
Sainz, Bottas and
Hulkenberg got the last few points.
The result means the
Mercedes drivers each have 5 wins.
Hamilton 192
Rosberg 186
Ricciardo 115
Raikkonen 114
Vettel 110
Verstappen 100
Title basically done?
No. Rosberg was probably faster than Hamilton today, in my view. Now,
that might be down to dodgy tyres or suchlike, but Hamilton was never
able to pull a significant gap and it’s extremely hard to pass in
Hungary. Furthermore, Hamilton will almost certainly have more
penalties (I think they’d be of the back-of-the-grid variety) due
to engine parts. In fact, now may be the perfect time to
consider a Rosberg title bet (although I’d want tasty odds).
Constructors:
Mercedes 378
Ferrari 224
Red Bull 223
Williams 94
Force India 74
Title is essentially
over, but it’s tight for the positions behind. Ferrari would be
perhaps 50 points or so higher but for dreadful reliability earlier
in the year. Who’ll finish on top? Hard to say right now. Williams
very slightly (by one point) extended their advantage over Force
India. The latter team may yet claim a best ever result of 4th,
though. The Williams is weak aerodynamically and atrocious in the
wet.
Perhaps surprisingly,
this was only my third green weekend of the year. I’m perplexed but
pleased the bookies mispriced the safety car odds.
The next race is a week
away, in Germany. After that there’s a four week break to Belgium.
Morris Dancer
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