Hungary: pre-qualifying

A few snippets of news emerged recently. Rosberg has signed a new contract with Mercedes, so both he and Hamilton will be there until 2018.

There are also new rules on radio transmissions. Now, drivers being given advice (to fix a problem, improving performance is still banned) must return to the pits (not necessarily stop, they can just cruise through).

In addition, rain is possible for the race (which could see a rare Hungarian safety car appearance), and the track has been resurfaced, which is slightly chewing up tyres (that said, a two stop is likelier than a three stop, assuming it’s dry).

There’s been much mulling and murmuring about whether the Red Bulls might be able to take the fight to Mercedes here. Also worth remembering that it’s hard to overtake at the Hungaroring. The tyres, I think, are supersoft (1.5s faster than the next tyre), soft and medium.

In first practice, Hamilton was about a quarter of a second ahead of Rosberg, who was nearly a second and a half up on Vettel. The Germans were followed by Raikkonen and Ricciardo, Verstappen, Alonso and Button following on. Grosjean and Perez rounded out the top 10.

I saw much of second practice but missed the early part, during which Hamilton had a crash. Doesn’t appear to have affected him but did severely limit his running. As a result, he was only 5^th. Rosberg was top, half a second up on Ricciardo. Vettel, Verstappen and the aforementioned Hamilton were next, with Raikkonen, Alonso, Button, Hulkenberg and Perez following.

At this stage, the Mercedes appears to be in a class of one. McLaren, surprisingly, seem to be the fastest after the Mercedes-Red Bull-Ferrari teams. Williams are off the pace.

The FIA reckons it’ll enforce track limits, so bear that in mind [not every corner, though, just 4 and 11].

In third practice, both Mercedes drivers made multiple mistakes and seemed to find the car a little bit of a handful. Rosberg was fastest by a mere two-thousandths over Verstappen, with Ricciardo half a second down the road. Hamilton was four-hundredths off the Aussie and a tenth ahead of Raikkonen (I think that reflects time lost through a mistake, and it’s worth noting Rosberg’s top lap time was also influenced by an error). Vettel, Alonso, Bottas, Perez and Palmer round out the top 10.

Do check the weather forecast before betting. At the moment, the race appears dry but qualifying may be rain-affected.

I’m trying to cut down slightly on the number of bets, given that in my mid-season review it seems to be races where I offer more that my results are worse.

Initial thoughts on qualifying betting are Alonso or Button to make Q3. Nothing else strikes my fancy, off the bat. However, the odds on Betfair are just 1.5 and 1.74 respectively, and that’s too short to tempt. I think the odds reflect reality, but the short odds coupled with potential for rain and lap times being erased doesn’t entice me.

So, no tip for qualifying.

Morris Dancer