Hungary: pre-race 2016

Qualifying went on for bloody ages. It was very wet, so the start was delayed, and then there were three red flags in the first part of qualifying (which lasted about 75 minutes, including the delayed start).

It was properly pissing it down when the first part of qualifying was due to commence, so the prolonged delay was entirely justified. Indeed, drivers only got in a single, very wet, lap before the rain intensified and the first red flag was waved.

Eventually the rain clouds passed and the cars went out. Almost immediately Ericsson introduced his Sauber to the advertising hoardings. Red flag came out again. The car was cleared, and by this time the track was drying rapidly. A few risked intermediate tyres. Massa made a tiny mistake, his car aquaplaned and he struck a barrier, bringing out another flag. Towards the very end of the session, Haryanto repeated Ericsson’s accident, and there was such little time left the red flag was waved and the Q1 session was not restarted.

As well as the three crashers, both Renaults and Wehrlein failed to reach Q2.

After that mammoth session, Q2 and Q3 proceeded normally.

In Q2 Grosjean, Kvyat and Perez were the top three eliminated (Perez being a surprise as the Force India had been very competitive in the wetter conditions and pretty good in the dry. Probably misfortune due to the rapidly evolving track and being unlucky to be one of the first to see the chequered flag). Raikkonen, Gutierrez and Nasr were also out, the Finn also being very unlucky with timing. He went from fastest to 14^th in the space of a lap.

Q3 had some final drama. All was progressing normally, the Red Bulls a shade closer to the Silver Arrows than expected, but then Alonso spun as others did their final laps. A yellow emerged and Hamilton, on a fast lap, had to slow. The yellow (probably, see below) was withdrawn but Rosberg was still on a quick lap. The German seized his chance and snatched pole from his team mate and title rival.

Red Bull took the second row, Ricciardo ahead of Verstappen, Vettel and Sainz were next up. Row four was McLaren’s, Alonso leading the way. Hulkenberg and Bottas round out the top 10.

Shortly after qualifying finished it was alleged that Rosberg’s pole lap should be invalidated because of yellow flags. I saw coverage and an electronic ‘flag’ behind Alonso’s car flicked from yellow to green, so I think Rosberg will be ok, and Mercedes indicate the German lifted for the yellow. However, it’s unresolved at the time of writing.

Initial bets that leapt to mind were:

Lay Raikkonen top 6

Raikkonen points

Red Bull top score

McLaren double points finish

Verstappen podium

The lay odds for Raikkonen to be top 6 (with little liquidity) are 4.1. Not quite value and not enough cash available to be worthwhile anyway.

Raikkonen is just 1.4 for points. Eminently possible, but too short to tempt.

Red Bull are just 4 to top score. Too mean to tempt. It requires [95%] either a Mercedes DNF or a Red Bull victory.

McLaren are 1.9 to have a double points finish. I think that’s well worth considering and, had I not made a bet already (see below) I’d probably go with this as it’s the clear best value of the quintet of original ideas I had.

Verstappen is 1.72 for a podium. Barring accident, it seems to be between the top four on the grid. Yet the rain will have washed away most of the rubber laid down over the weekend and the newly resurfaced track may chew up tyres, an issue that affects the Red Bull (which has also been much slower than the Mercedes on long runs).

Just saw the safety car is evens. Is rain forecast? No, I checked, so that’s an automatic tip (Ladbrokes). Hungary is the circuit least likely to see one (wide track, lots of run off areas). I’m perplexed by the long odds and can only assume people are over-reacting to the many red flags in a soaked qualifying.

So, just that one tip:

No Safety Car, evens, Ladbrokes

Morris Dancer