The 2016 Mid-season Review

From last race: Rosberg eventually got a 10s time penalty, which dropped him to 3^rd.

It’s been a bit of a flat season so far, in betting terms. I’m in the red marginally with a hedged approach (just over 1 stake) and a bit more, without being catastrophic, on a bet-and-forget approach (just over 3 stakes).

I’ve got either 5 or 6 (the latter for hedged) of 22 tips offered in in pre-qualifying and pre-race pieces correct, which is a pretty low proportion.

After making losses at the first four races, I had a nice race in Spain, with a health profit of £60 (assuming £10 stakes). Since then things have been marginally red overall.

Although I’m not counting this in my records, I did offer a tip for Spain on Verstappen winning which, at the time, was 250/1. When the markets took notice he’d shifted to Red Bull, it fell to 40/1, which remains a pleasingly long odds winner. Because of the short-term nature of the bet (I knew the odds would tumble swiftly) I didn’t offer it here. If people think I should change that approach and put up such tips, which are strictly time limited as bookies hurry to change odds, do let me know.

So, why’s the year been a bit poor?

Partly, bad luck. Ferrari and McLaren have had bad reliability. The only thing worse has been that whenever I back either for not being classified, I get it wrong. That said, I did get flukey with the Perez podium in Azerbaijan, so it is a little swings and roundabouts.

On four occasions I’ve offered 3 tips (which is 1-2 more than standard) and on only one occasion was that profitable. Being a bit more selective, by itself, would’ve pushed me from red to green. That may be the key lesson.

How do I see the season ahead? There are still a stonking 11 races to go. I think most of the races will suit Ferrari more than Red Bull, so they may retain (or reclaim, I expect the next race, Hungary, to be good for Red Bull) 2^nd in the Constructors’. I do wonder how Rosberg might do. Hamilton has all the momentum and is just 4 points behind. However, he’s also got some engine penalties likely to come and Rosberg had a very strong finish to the last quarter of the 2015 season. Overall, I think Hamilton is favourite, but Rosberg may be underestimated by those who think it’ll be straightforward. The next few races are critical. If Rosberg is still more or less level in five races, I think he can do it.

Incidentally, I mentioned a super secret extra thingummyjig might be included. Bearing in mind (even with a tiny stake) I made a bit on the Verstappen bet, I’m thinking of dipping my toe into spread-betting waters. In the past I’ve offered some suggestions to Mr. Putney ahead of a season kicking off, and familiarising myself with the market seems sensible. So, I’m going to offer some spread-betting suggestions [NB not proper tips as I’m not backing them myself] for the latter half of 2016.

These refer to prices up on http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/motor-racing/formula-1-formula-1-season/ at the time of writing.

Maybe:

buy Verstappen 206

buy Bottas 93 [this has since risen to 99]

Sell Magnussen 11

Probably:

Sell Alonso 53

Unlike the normal tips, which I generalise a £10 stake so I can compare each year more easily, I’ll assume a £1 stake per point here.

Verstappen (weirdly only available over the electric telephone as I write this) is currently on 90 points after 10/21 races. He spent the first four or so at Toro Rosso. Excepting a second horror show at Monaco, he’s been adept at various circuits, and was very racy in the wet of Silverstone last weekend. The Red Bull tends to vary between being the second and third fastest car, and is more reliable than the Ferrari. The Mercedes also sometimes has reliability issues, which can push up a Red Bull for a few more points.

Verstappen has made 73 points in the last 6 races, including a DNF in Monaco. I think buying at 206 is definitely worth considering without being a total slam dunk. To counter the DNF, he had great luck in Spain with the Mercedes’ collision and also got a few more points in the last two races due to Rosberg’s time penalty and another Silver Arrow collision.

Bottas is currently on 54 points. The Williams is a little up and down, and has been a bit poor relative to competitors (especially Force India) recently, and nor was it helped by the rain in the UK. However, it is quick in a straight line and the only full-blown street circuit left on the calendar (after Monaco and Baku) is Singapore [Abu Dhabi’s Yas Marina is also generally tight and slow, but does have a massive straight too]. Williams generally have slightly ropey strategy but good reliability. With Hamilton’s penalties ahead and the 11 remaining races perhaps more favourable than the first half, I’d say this is worth considering, but perhaps rank it below the Verstappen suggestion.

Magnussen drives a Renault. He currently has 6 points, and I’m tempted to suggest selling at 11. His car is one of the three worst on the grid, and he requires substantial luck, I’d suggest, to get a points finish. It’s a pretty narrow window, however.

Alonso is a fantastic driver, but his car is not wonderful. It is quick enough to nibble at the lower fringes of the points, but also worth pointing out of his 18 points (considering a sell at 53) a full 10 came at Monaco. From the other 9 races so far he has made 8 points. If that persists (and let’s say he gets 10 at Singapore), he’s on course for 36/37 points. The car also fails fairly often. This is the suggestion of which I’m most confident.

Anyway, I shall make a note of these four suggestions, including my confidence level, and we shall see how they progress.

Morris Dancer