United Kingdom: post-race analysis 2016

Must admit, I found the race a shade disappointing in betting terms and a bit so-so in terms of racing. Despite wet conditions and many skids, neither McLaren retired (Alonso, the bounder, skidded through the gravel, hit the barrier, and kept going. The fiend).

Off the line there was no excitement because it had rained fairly heavily and we had a safety car start.

As is now the modus operandi of F1, the safety car stayed out too bloody long and almost immediately some cars dove into the pits for the intermediates. The Red Bull was racier than a drunk stripper, and Verstappen passed Rosberg (who was relatively slow on the intermediates). It appeared the lead four (Mercedes and Red Bulls) had missed the boat with regards to the optimal strategy (intermediate whilst waiting for slicks). Perez had also stayed out and had therefore risen to 5^th, at this early stage.

However, Wehrlein was the first (but certainly not the last) to skid on a damp patch at the first corner. His scenic trip through the gravel came to an abrupt end. His race was over, and the Virtual Safety Car made an appearance.

The top five all pitted for inters, and there was much rejoicing.

When they emerged, all on the medium compound, Hamilton had a healthy lead ahead of Verstappen, who was a few seconds ahead of Rosberg.

Further back, Vettel was still struggling to get into the points, in a Ferrari that was performing surprisingly poorly.

Rosberg’s car was clearly faster than the Red Bull, but Verstappen’s a talented defensive driver and the German could get close but was failing, lap after lap, to pass. Eventually, Rosberg did make the move, but at this stage there were perhaps a dozen laps left and eight seconds or so to make up if he wanted to reach Hamilton.

Further down the field, Perez had slid down a little but was still going well. Sainz had been going strongly but spinning at turn 1 (as many did) cost him a couple of places.

At the front (nearly), drama. Rosberg’s gearbox stopped playing. He was stuck in seventh, and the team radioed a fix and told him to shift through (ie avoid that gear). He’d lost time to Verstappen but retained 2^nd.

However, Christian Horner, Red Bull’s team principal argued that it contravened a rule banning most communication (which is why Mercedes couldn’t tell Hamilton in Azerbaijan how to change his settings). Toto Wolff, one of Mercedes’ bosses, has said he’s confident the ensuing (currently ongoing) inquiry will find no wrongdoing as communications are permitted when the car’s about to fail or there’s another safety issue.

So, despite rain the race was a little bit dissatisfying. The safety car was out too long. There were many skids but few led to retirements (Wehrlein’s team mate Haryanto did much the same, both Renaults, Grosjean and Ericsson also retired).

Hamilton cruised to effortless triumph, Rosberg 2^nd, for now at least, Verstappen got his second consecutive podium. Ricciardo and Raikkonen were next, with Perez and Hulkenberg getting a tasty finish for Force India. Sainz and Kvyat were 8^th and 10^th respectively, which is nice for Toro Rosso, and Vettel was a meagre 9^th. This has been a dodgy weekend for Ferrari.

Assuming Rosberg retains his 2^nd (and the 18 points that come with it) here are the standings for the drivers:

Rosberg 171

Hamilton 167

Raikkonen 106

Ricciardo 100

Vettel 98

Verstappen 87

Momentum has swung very much Hamilton’s way, ever since the collision in Spain took out both Mercedes and halted Rosberg’s run of about seven consecutive victories. So, is Hamilton home and hosed? No. He’s probably right to be favourite, but when penalties come into play (and they will) that could give Rosberg a significant advantage in latter races. I’d say a Hamilton title is perhaps 70% likely. Maybe 80%. But there’s a plausible way Rosberg can win this, though he needs to stop the rot. Excepting Baku (Rosberg victory), Hamilton’s won four of the last five races.

Constructors’:

Mercedes 338

Ferrari 204

Red Bull 195

Williams 92

Force India 73

Toro Rosso 41

McLaren 32

Haas 28

Renault 6

Manor 1

Sauber 0

Mercedes would need to work hard to lose the title here. Red Bull are within one good race of overhauling Ferrari, thanks to a combination of inept strategy and poor reliability from the Prancing Horse. Force India are reeling in Williams, although 19 points when the two are usually scrapping to be fourth fastest is still a reasonable gap.

So, a bit of a flat weekend. At least my hesitancy over a race bet was justified, as nothing I thought would happen actually did. On the plus side, the 12 pence net loss (for £10 stakes) is rather better than the triple failure of Austria.

This is also the final race in (according to the way I do things) the first half of the season. The Hungarian Grand Prix is up in a fortnight, and before then I’ll endeavour to have a mid-season review up. Although most of the races have been good, my betting has not [discounting tips offered elsewhere], so I’ll have to see why that might be. Happens sometimes, although it’s disappointing.

Anyway, I’ll try and get that done before Hungary, which I suspect will be nice for Red Bull.

Morris Dancer