United Kingdom: pre-race 2016

Qualifying was dry, but quite interesting nevertheless (although I’d dispute the ‘zero tolerance’ of track limits). It was also mildly profitable, as Alonso kindly obliged by reaching the final part of the session. Bit relieved, as short odds bets aren’t really my cup of tea.

It was overcast and grey (it is the British summer, after all) but no rain fell. Marcus Ericsson, after a substantial crash in practice, did not compete (he may be permitted to race, or not).

The Sauber of Nasr and both Manors were at the back of the field, as is usually the case. Both Palmer and Magnussen suffered deleted times for crossing the white lines that denote the track and had to go again. Magnussen made it, Palmer did not. Button was a long way back from Alonso, because his rear end plate had become loose (costing him downforce) and mending it prevented him getting another fast lap in. Alas, this meant he exited at this stage.

Q2 saw Magnussen last, and both Haas drivers failed to progress. Kvyat had a disappointing qualifying (the Russian was 15th but his team mate made the top 10), as did Massa (12th, and over half a second behind Bottas). Perez just missed out on the top 10, qualifying 11th (he’ll start 10th, due to a Vettel gearbox penalty) but he may be sitting pretty for the race itself.

In the final part of qualifying it was clear the Mercedes were in a league of their own. Hamilton was faster on the initial run, only for his lap time to be deleted for exceeding track limits. However, the Briton went on to grab a comfortable pole ahead of Rosberg.

Behind them, Verstappen was over a second off the pace, with Ricciardo a few tenths off his team mate. Given their performance in Q2 I do wonder if the Red Bulls might have a decent race ahead of them.

Raikkonen and Vettel are next up, but the German has a five place grid penalty for yet another gearbox change. So, again, it’ll be a Finnish row as Bottas moves up.

Hulkenberg and Sainz are next, with Alonso and Perez on the fifth row. Vettel starts 11th.

The weather forecast for the race is largely dry but with heavy showers possible.

At first glance, bets that came to mind were:
Perez top 6
Verstappen podium
Verstappen/Ricciardo to lead lap 1

That’s not as much as usual, but, though the grid looks quite interesting, it’s hard for me to see much value. (I think Vettel may struggle to get on the podium, which would’ve been something I’d consider elsewhere).

Perez is 2.62 to be top 6. That’s borderline, for me. I think it’s a bit of an outside shot because of the cars ahead of him (and Vettel charging from right behind).

Verstappen is 1.83 for a podium. Not tempting. Mechanical failure, accident, bad pit stop etc could stop it, and the odds are too short to mitigate the risk.

Verstappen and Ricciardo are 7 and 15 respectively to lead lap 1. That’s worth considering, given how the starts have been this year. However, an unhelpfully timed shower could see a tedious safety car start.

Whilst the grid’s nicely set up for a race I am having some difficult coming up with a tip. So, as is often the case, I perused the market for inspiration.

There’s Raikkonen or Vettel not to be classified at 4.5/5. Ferrari has a pretty bad record this year due to misfortune and poor reliability, and I’m still surprised the odds are this long. However, I also have a bad record of predicting when the failures will come.

Red Bull are 5.5 to be highest scoring. However, this effectively requires either them to win (available at 11 or 13 for Verstappen and Ricciardo respectively) or a Mercedes to fail to finish (6.5 each). It’s possible one Mercedes could suffer a puncture and lose a minute or so getting back to the pits and continue, but the likelihood Red Bull only top score by winning, which I’m not sure they’ll be able to do (although they were pretty good in P2) or if a Mercedes falls off the track.

Force India are 2.1 for a double points finish, which may be worth considering. They had a terrible race last time due to reliability issues but that may have been circuit-specific. However, the odds are pretty tight.

At the moment, a single stake split between either the lead lap 1 or not to be classified bets look most appealing to me, although they’re both a bit guesswork. Hmm.

Ferrari have had 5 DNFs from 9 races, to date, although most of these were near the season’s start. Hamilton’s started badly at most races, but last time did pretty well. Hmm (again).

Took a break for some food, and when I returned decided I like none of these bets.

The McLarens are 3.4 each not to be classified [Ladbrokes], and I split one stake between them. In the last three races, only one McLaren has reached the end of the race. It is something of a guess rather than a cunning and calculated bet (and if the Ferraris don’t finish I reserve the right to be annoyed) but I think it’s the best value I can come up with.

Not been quite as stumped for a bet on a race as this for some time.

Anyway, let’s hope the race sees a double McLaren retirement on lap one, and many other exciting spectacles.


Morris Dancer

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Monaco: pre-race 2023

America: pre-race

F1 2014 - Second and Third Tests