United Kingdom: pre-race 2016
Qualifying
was dry, but quite interesting nevertheless (although I’d dispute
the ‘zero tolerance’ of track limits). It was also mildly
profitable, as Alonso kindly obliged by reaching the final part of
the session. Bit relieved, as short odds bets aren’t really my cup
of tea.
It
was overcast and grey (it is the British summer, after all) but no
rain fell. Marcus Ericsson, after a substantial crash in practice,
did not compete (he may be permitted to race, or not).
The
Sauber of Nasr and both Manors were at the back of the field, as is
usually the case. Both Palmer and Magnussen suffered deleted times
for crossing the white lines that denote the track and had to go
again. Magnussen made it, Palmer did not. Button was a long way back
from Alonso, because his rear end plate had become loose (costing him
downforce) and mending it prevented him getting another fast lap in.
Alas, this meant he exited at this stage.
Q2
saw Magnussen last, and both Haas drivers failed to progress. Kvyat
had a disappointing qualifying (the Russian was 15th
but his team mate made the top 10), as did Massa (12th,
and over half a second behind Bottas). Perez just missed out on the
top 10, qualifying 11th
(he’ll start 10th,
due to a Vettel gearbox penalty) but he may be sitting pretty for the
race itself.
In
the final part of qualifying it was clear the Mercedes were in a
league of their own. Hamilton was faster on the initial run, only for
his lap time to be deleted for exceeding track limits. However, the
Briton went on to grab a comfortable pole ahead of Rosberg.
Behind
them, Verstappen was over a second off the pace, with Ricciardo a few
tenths off his team mate. Given their performance in Q2 I do wonder
if the Red Bulls might have a decent race ahead of them.
Raikkonen
and Vettel are next up, but the German has a five place grid penalty
for yet another gearbox change. So, again, it’ll be a Finnish row
as Bottas moves up.
Hulkenberg
and Sainz are next, with Alonso and Perez on the fifth row. Vettel
starts 11th.
The
weather forecast for the race is largely dry but with heavy showers
possible.
At
first glance, bets that came to mind were:
Perez
top 6
Verstappen
podium
Verstappen/Ricciardo
to lead lap 1
That’s
not as much as usual, but, though the grid looks quite interesting,
it’s hard for me to see much value. (I think Vettel may struggle to
get on the podium, which would’ve been something I’d consider
elsewhere).
Perez
is 2.62 to be top 6. That’s borderline, for me. I think it’s a
bit of an outside shot because of the cars ahead of him (and Vettel
charging from right behind).
Verstappen
is 1.83 for a podium. Not tempting. Mechanical failure, accident, bad
pit stop etc could stop it, and the odds are too short to mitigate
the risk.
Verstappen
and Ricciardo are 7 and 15 respectively to lead lap 1. That’s worth
considering, given how the starts have been this year. However, an
unhelpfully timed shower could see a tedious safety car start.
Whilst
the grid’s nicely set up for a race I am having some difficult
coming up with a tip. So, as is often the case, I perused the market
for inspiration.
There’s
Raikkonen or Vettel not to be classified at 4.5/5. Ferrari has a
pretty bad record this year due to misfortune and poor reliability,
and I’m still surprised the odds are this long. However, I also
have a bad record of predicting when the failures will come.
Red
Bull are 5.5 to be highest scoring. However, this effectively
requires either them to win (available at 11 or 13 for Verstappen and
Ricciardo respectively) or a Mercedes to fail to finish (6.5 each).
It’s possible one Mercedes could suffer a puncture and lose a
minute or so getting back to the pits and continue, but the
likelihood Red Bull only top score by winning, which I’m not sure
they’ll be able to do (although they were pretty good in P2) or if
a Mercedes falls off the track.
Force
India are 2.1 for a double points finish, which may be worth
considering. They had a terrible race last time due to reliability
issues but that may have been circuit-specific. However, the odds are
pretty tight.
At
the moment, a single stake split between either the lead lap 1 or not
to be classified bets look most appealing to me, although they’re
both a bit guesswork. Hmm.
Ferrari
have had 5 DNFs from 9 races, to date, although most of these were
near the season’s start. Hamilton’s started badly at most races,
but last time did pretty well. Hmm (again).
Took
a break for some food, and when I returned decided I like none of
these bets.
The
McLarens are 3.4 each not to be classified [Ladbrokes], and I split
one stake between them. In the last three races, only one McLaren has
reached the end of the race. It is something of a guess rather than a
cunning and calculated bet (and if the Ferraris don’t finish I
reserve the right to be annoyed) but I think it’s the best value I
can come up with.
Not
been quite as stumped for a bet on a race as this for some
time.
Anyway,
let’s hope the race sees a double McLaren retirement on lap one,
and many other exciting spectacles.
Morris
Dancer
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