Belgium: pre-qualifying 2016

There’s been much chatter over the four week break of who might go where, but little in the way of hard facts. Whilst Button remains likely to lose his McLaren seat to promising youngster Stoffel Vandoorne, most of the rumour mill has focused on Williams, where neither Massa nor Bottas are 100% safe (though the Brazilian is likeliest to go). Renault’s also still likely to drop Palmer, and Magnussen may not remain either.

Rio Haryanto, who was more impressive than many thought he would be, has been financially embarrassed from his Manor seat and gives way to the bank manager-pleasing Esteban Ocon. To be fair, Ocon’s tipped as a pretty racy fellow, but it is lack of funding that’s seen Haryanto go into the background. That said, Haryanto is, I think, the team’s third driver, an indication they rate his abilities, if not his finances.

Speaking of ludicrous numbers, grid penalties abound like fairy dust in pixieland. Hamilton has a 55 place grid penalty (the sharp-eyed will have noticed there are 22 cars on the grid this year) due to numerous new engine parts. However, assuming he doesn't start from the pit lane, he shall be joined by Alonso, who takes a 35 place grid penalty (Honda brought a new, faster engine. Unfortunately, it is not more reliable). Ericsson is in line for a 10 place grid penalty for a new turbo. That said, the Sauber does appear to be improved, for the first time in a while, itself a sign of the better finances the team enjoys.

From politicalbetting.com, posted by MaxPB (info from Autosport):

“For F1 fans out there. This weekend could be quite tasty excluding Mercedes. McLaren have spent 7 tokens on their PU, 3 on the ICE, 2 on the turbo and 2 on the compressor. They are also bringing a fuel and lubricant upgrade courtesy of Exxon. Rumours say that the fuel is worth 20hp and the PU upgrade is worth ~35hp, at Spa 7hp is worth a tenth of a second. The PU upgrade so far have brought 20hp worth of performance gains plus additional hybrid deployment. If these upgrades turn out to be genuine then it puts the Honda PU level with Renault and not too far behind Ferrari.

Hopefully it means Alonso and Button will be up near the top fighting with the Ferraris and Red Bulls rather than trying to hold off Force India and Williams.”

The same fellow suggested Newey might take a leading role designing the 2017 Red Bull, which, of course, is rather intriguing. That and Prodromou at McLaren mean that Ferrari may end up going backwards, again. If I do dip my toe into spread betting, the areas I’ll be looking at are backing McLaren to do well, and betting against Ferrari. But, we’ll see.

Before I get to practice, the assumptions Hamilton will tear through the field like a baboon through a birthday party may not necessarily be accurate. Firstly, the results of Russia, China and Azerbaijan [linked below]. In Russia, he started 10^th and finished 2^nd (six seconds ahead of 3rd-placed Raikkonen). In China, he started 22^nd and finished 7^th. In Azerbaijan, he started 22^nd and finished 5^th (albeit with less power than he should’ve had for most of the race).

Secondly, since then some other teams have improved. I’m not saying they’re the equal of Mercedes, but that they’re going to be harder to pass. Force India and Williams have always had good top speeds, but now Red Bull’s looking very racy, and McLaren have also improved.

Results from Russia, China and Azerbaijan:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/2016/russian-grand-prix/results

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/2016/european-grand-prix/results

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/2016/chinese-grand-prix/results

In first practice, Rosberg was a surprising seven-tenths up on Hamilton. Raikkonen and Perez were close behind, with Vettel a bit further back. Ricciardo, Verstappen, Hulkenberg, Bottas and Gutierrez round out the top 10.

In second practice, Mercedes didn’t really come out to play. Verstappen was fastest, a quarter of a second ahead of his team mate (good on long runs too). Hulkenberg, Vettel and Perez were next, with Rosberg, Raikkonen, Grosjean, Button and Gutierrez finishing the theoretical points positions.

At this stage, Red Bull and Force India look quite tasty (I’d guess Hulkenberg will outdo Perez. The Mexican’s better at twisty circuits, the German excels on old school fast circuits [cf Interlagos]). Williams look a bit poor. If they’re not careful they’ll lose a stack of points to Constructors’ rival Force India.

In third practice Verstappen had an engine issue, turned out to be the gearbox. Shade concerning. Unsure if he'll have a penalty.

Raikkonen was quickest in P3, with Ricciardo two-tenths back, and Vettel a tenth off the Aussie. Bottas, Hamilton and Hulkenberg were next, with Rosberg, Massa, Perez and Grosjean rounding off the top 10.

Hamilton is perhaps going to just appear in Q1 to get inside the 107% limit readily, and then take no further part in qualifying (Alonso/Ericsson may do likewise).

Somewhat infuriatingly, after tipping elsewhere No Safety Car at 2.62, the forecast has changed (from dry) and there’s a reasonably high chance of a safety car due to wet weather and the wet pants of the race director. So, if asked now, I would not bet either way on a safety car. [This won’t count in the records, in the same way the 251 tip on Verstappen winning in Spain did not count].

No bet on qualifying. Did consider Ricciardo each way for pole (top 2) but it could be Verstappen or even a Ferrari and the odds didn’t look good enough.

Morris Dancer