Belgium: pre-race 2016

Qualifying was quite interesting. The grid is intriguingly poised. Incidentally, Gutierrez got a 5 place grid penalty for impeding Wehrlein in practice (the Mexican’s also been criticised for being slow to move for blue flags in previous races).

In Q1 a few predictable things, and one surprise, occurred. Hamilton trundled around on a set of supersoft tyres, coming last but curing them (so they’ll last long if he bolts them on during the race). Both Saubers failed to escape. Alonso went out for a run, after a delay, and his car managed about a third of a lap before it decided not to bother working anymore. The surprise? Wehrlein was impressively fast, getting a comfortably quick enough time for Q2 (and looking possible for Q3). His new team mate, Ocon, was half a second down the road. As well as Ocon, the Saubers, Hamilton and Alonso, Kvyat failed to reach the next phase of qualifying.

Sadly, Wehrlein didn’t progress much further. His initial Q2 run was aborted due to a wheel feeling wobbly, and his second run, for whatever reason, was disappointingly slow. He qualified 16^th, but will start higher due to Gutierrez’s penalty. The Mexican was 13^th, his Haas team mate Grosjean 11^th. Magnussen and Palmer were 12^th and 14^th respectively with Sainz just 15^th. Not a Toro Rosso track, it would seem.

However, it’s worth noting Verstappen’s qualifying lap was on the supersoft, whereas all his rivals set theirs on the soft. That may be critical for the race (if it’s mostly dry, and dry at the start).

In Q3, Rosberg duly got pole, but by only a tenth on Verstappen (youngest chap and first Dutchman ever to start on the front row). Raikkonen was 3^rd, only a small distance behind, with Vettel 4^th. Ricciardo and Perez share the next row, then Hulkenberg and Bottas, and Button and Massa (Massa must be disappointed after a quick lap in Q2).

Cars are out of position, Verstappen’s on an alternative strategy, Wehrlein may have the pace for a point, and rain is possible.

The supersoft-soft approach of Verstappen and Ricciardo respectively is a potentially substantial difference to the soft-soft of Ferrari. If the soft is significantly better, Red Bull cannot top score, Verstappen will go backwards (all else being equal) and Ferrari could get a double podium and top score. If the supersoft is better, Verstappen could win. Outside shot. But credible.

Based on the grid, potential bets that spring to mind were:

Ferrari top score

Red Bull top score

Force India double score

Hulkenberg top 6

Wehrlein to get a point

Verstappen win

Verstappen/Raikkonen to lead lap 1

Ferrari are 4.5 to top score, Red Bull are 3.75. Mercedes are 1.57, which I think is too short, suggesting there’s value with one or both the other teams. If Rosberg wins, Hamilton needs to be 6^th to equal another team getting 2^nd and 3^rd (33). For 3^rd and 4^th, it’s 27, for 2^nd and 5^th, it’s 28 (Ferrari and Red Bull’s starting positions respectively). This is a bugger to call. May well be value on both of them.

Force India are 1.5 to top score. Too short.

Hulkenberg is 1.9 to be top 6. Whilst eminently possible, the odds are too short.

Wehrlein is 11 for a point. He starts 15^th, and his Q1 pace was good enough to be somewhere like 8th-10^th. I think that’s well worth considering.

Verstappen is 6 to win. If the supersoft is the better tyre to start, that’s value (probably each way). If not, it isn’t. Hmm.

To lead lap 1, Verstappen is an astoundingly short 2.75, and Raikkonen a more sensible 9. I think the theory is the fast bit after turn 1 is perfect for a slipstream, but even so, that’s damned short for Verstappen (Rosberg’s 1.61).

After perusing the markets (might seem odd given I have a lot to choose from, but if something leaps out it’d resolve that conundrum for me), I saw:

Raikkonen to win 12.5/10 (Betfair/Ladbrokes). He’s been quick all weekend and has a great record here.

Alonso not to be classified at 3.5. His car’s broken down twice already.

Not betting on this, but if you think Verstappen might win, he’s 6 on Ladbrokes, but 7 if you back a Dutchman to win in the Nationality market instead.

Both cars to have a podium finish: Ferrari are 5, Red Bull 3.25. (Mercedes 3.5, which I think is far too short). Ferrari are value there. If soft tyres pave the way to victory, Verstappen falls back, and it’s advantage Ferrari, both of which start on the soft tyres, ahead of Ricciardo.

So, that’s a thousand damned things that tempt me, but I’m not making that many bets. The short list is:

Top score, Ferrari, 4.5/Red Bull, 3.75

Wehrlein, score, 11

Verstappen, win each way 6 [go for A Dutchman if you want win only, at 7]

I was sorely tempted by Wehrlein, but 15^th to 10^th is a fair shift, especially as Hamilton may well end up ahead of him. I’m also wondering if a grid penalty, albeit harsh, might occur due to a reportedly loose wheel in qualifying (not heard anything about that as yet). Agonised for a long time over the Wehrlein bet. Eventually decided against it.

Just the one tip:

Decided to split one stake between Red Bull and Ferrari to top score, at 3.75 and 4.5 respectively. It’s not impossible Hamilton will make it to 6^th (or both those teams might lose a car) but I think it’s less likely than the market suggests.

Anyway, agony of choice over, the grid’s very nicely stacked up for a cracking race. If Rosberg would be so kind as to have a DNS, that would work splendidly, for both the race and the wallet.

Morris Dancer