Italy: pre-race 2016

To paraphrase Emperor Palpatine, everything is proceeding exactly as I have foreseen (with the exception of Bottas’ pace in the Williams). As expected, Mercedes dominated qualifying, Rosberg got 2^nd on the grid, Ferrari form the second row. The tip came off with a tiny profit, but given the dominance of the Mercedes I think it was sensible.

In the first part of qualifying Ocon (his nickname may be Doc Oc, or Doctor Octagon, debate rages), peeled off the track when his car stopped working. The Renaults were next last, simply due to dire pace, with the two Saubers just ahead. Kvyat was the fastest of those eliminated here (I wouldn’t be surprised if half those out in this session lose their seats at the season’s end).

The second session was interesting because the Ferraris, having gone out in Q1 on soft tyres, then went out on supersofts (unlike the Mercedes). This may give the Prancing Horse the jump on the Silver Arrows come the start [word of warning, though, there’s near total dominance when it comes to converting front row starts to victories]. Anyway, both McLarens exited at this stage, as did Sainz (who was slowest). The Manor of Wehrlein split the McLarens. Massa was the fastest eliminated chap (long way off his team mate, though) with Grosjean behind him. Gutierrez got the Haas into Q3 for the first time.

In the end, the Mercedes was dominant but Hamilton was a street ahead of Rosberg. Behind them, the Ferraris were close (Raikkonen faster on the initial run before Vettel nabbed 3^rd), a fair margin ahead of the surprise of the session. Bottas got 5^th, a thousandth of a second ahead of Ricciardo. Then was Verstappen, the considerably slower Perez and Hulkenberg, with Gutierrez last of the top 10.

The Mercedes will start on the soft tyre, the rest of the top 10 [I think] on the supersoft. If one of the Mercedes starts badly, Ferrari could leap ahead like a kangaroo on crack.

Grosjean has a grid penalty for a gearbox change, I think. Unaware of any other penalties.

Initial betting ideas:

Vettel/Raikkonen to lead lap 1

Massa points

Perez top 6

Vettel and Raikkonen are 6 and 17 respectively to lead lap 1. That’s possibly value. Hmm. They start on supersoft tyres compared to the Mercedes, although the bad Mercedes starts haven’t happened for a little while.

Massa was just 1.33 for points. Much too short.

Perez is 2.5 for top 6, which probably reflects reality, and therefore isn’t value.

The lead lap 1 bet is interesting. Always a bit of a luck-based bet, though. As is traditional, I perused the markets, hunting for value like a pig snuffling for truffles. Here are the fungi thus gathered:

Betfair – Rosberg to be winner without Hamilton, 1.43

Betfair – Vettel/Raikkonen to be winner without big 2, 1.8 and 2.7 respectively

Ladbrokes – No Safety Car, 2.1

All those, obviously, are very short odds. I think Rosberg not finishing either top or 2^nd behind Hamilton is very likely, but Monza does have gravel traps unlike some weak-kneed modern circuits, so if he makes a mistake it’s possible that’ll fail. Also possible the Ferraris will jump them at the start and that’ll screw things up.

On a similar note, I think Ferrari are very likely to beat Red Bull, but the odds are too short and there’s a risk of a tyre being run too long (I forget at which circuit, but Vettel suffered an exploding tyre earlier in the year which cost him many points).

I think there’s just been one safety car at Monza in the last five events. So, although no safety car is just 2.1, with the virtual safety car it would seem rather good value.

So, the two bets I’m considering are Vettel/Raikkonen to lead lap 1 at 6 and 17 respectively, and No Safety Car at 2.1. Hmm. I have no idea which makes more sense.

After contemplating it, I decided both were value. The tips for Italy are:

No Safety Car, 2.1

Vettel/Raikkonen to lead lap 1 (1 stake split evenly), at 6 and 17 respectively

Let’s hope the Mercedes leave their handbrakes on, and the race is a boring processional win for Vettel.

In news that broke post-qualifying, Button will not be on the grid next year. McLaren will have him as reserve driver in 2017, with an option in 2018. This is interesting, in itself but also because Force India have stated Perez has a contract with them. And Massa’s off, as it is believed will be Palmer and possibly Magnussen too. Button’s McLaren seat seems destined for Stoffel Vandoorne, but that still leaves probably two and maybe more seats to fill.

Morris Dancer